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Himeji Castle

tbone19688

New Member
I have a question and sort of an issue with Himeji Castle payouts recently.
I have leveled Himeji Castle to lvl 80 and ever since going past 78 the payouts are almost non existent.
I know some will say its just random and the % are set but before this i kept a spread sheet for 3 months and 2 levels to have the facts. I know for sure that instead of getting a better chance i am getting less and I am not the only player who has noticed.

Can anyone explain this with a reasonable explanation. I know the rates and I know it payout rate should be higher but at least 6 times now i have received 0 rewards from HC and that has never been so that frequently.

Just an observation.
 

Plain Red Justice

Active Member
Don't level an early game building too much in late game and expect it to immediately return your epic self-investment. RNG is RNG and if you want guaranteed returns, place your excess FPs in your Arc instead
 
ODragon

ODragon

Well-Known Member
When I compare the wiki to my excel sheet, I can tell you the expected results aren't terribly off (not checking the statistics). I didn't keep track of if its proc'ing at the correct rate though (L91 - 49.18%).

1602170729993.png
 

DeletedUser

The random generator that Inno uses is quite random and for my taste not suitable to our game.
We have very small statistical populations of events, and Himeji is a good example.
In one year we will have max 365 events (not considering leveling)
A 5% probability to get a high level prize will not translate into more than 15 prizes...because the statistical population for the random generator that Inno uses, has to be higher.
I asked what kind of event population do we need to see the 5% reflected accordingly - nobody dares to answer
I asked if we can be sure that indeed 5% of the events will be as published - nobody answered
I expect some kind of correlation for lower populations (like 10 events) , mostly because I don't have to wait 5 years to get the Gauss distribution (we might quit the game until then...)
 
LadySansaStark

LadySansaStark

New Member
Sometimes the RNG just goes awry for a while, it all evens out in the end.

At one point I had zero hits from my HC for 16 days straight, granted it was low level at 5, but still, as uncommon and unlucky as that is, it will happen to someone. Similarly, my ToR which is also very low, should never have had 5 gold relics on a single map, but it's happened twice now. If you were to take all GBs of a particular type and look at the ratios over thousands of players over many days, it will be correct.
 
ahsay

ahsay

Active Member
How did I know..."it's the RNG" would be the standard reply. Let's ignore the current information, One guy unhappy, not much, but let's also not dismiss it.

I think DP makes a valid point.
 
Emberguard

Emberguard

Well-Known Member
ahsay said:
Let's ignore the current information, One guy unhappy, not much, but let's also not dismiss it.
Click to expand...
Well we haven't exactly been shown anything from them regarding what they are or aren't getting and it'd need to be a big enough sample to actually mean something.
 

Iggy112

Member
It seems a little strange that individual players with limited sample sizes are the ones that have to present evidence as to whether observations are skewed enough to statistically question the underlying random generator results. Inno should easily be able to gather 1000’s of samples. Why not publish results for HC, SC, Tor, BG ,etc. Put everyone’s mind at ease that it is just the randomness?
 

wolfhoundtoo

Well-Known Member
And so every time someone decides to question the randomness Inno should have to prove that it is working correctly? In general people don't understand randomness because as others have mentioned in what has to be at least dozens of past threads that discussed this topic, people like to see patterns. They especially like to remember the times that they got unlucky rather than all of the times they got lucky. If you want to say something isn't working then yes it's on you to provide enough data to support your claim.
 
Agent327

Agent327

Well-Known Member
Iggy112 said:
It seems a little strange that individual players with limited sample sizes are the ones that have to present evidence as to whether observations are skewed enough to statistically question the underlying random generator results. Inno should easily be able to gather 1000’s of samples. Why not publish results for HC, SC, Tor, BG ,etc. Put everyone’s mind at ease that it is just the randomness?
Click to expand...

It's individual players that always think there is something wrong whenever there is a random chance. Should Inno suply proof everytime that happens? How about players coming up with the proof before they start complaining? "I think and my guildmembers also think the same" isn't proof.
 
P C C

P C C

Active Member
Iggy112 said:
It seems a little strange that individual players with limited sample sizes are the ones that have to present evidence as to whether observations are skewed enough to statistically question the underlying random generator results. Inno should easily be able to gather 1000’s of samples. Why not publish results for HC, SC, Tor, BG ,etc. Put everyone’s mind at ease that it is just the randomness?
Click to expand...

Agent327 said:
It's individual players that always think there is something wrong whenever there is a random chance. Should Inno suply proof everytime that happens? How about players coming up with the proof before they start complaining? "I think and my guildmembers also think the same" isn't proof.
Click to expand...
Plus if someone doesn't believe Inno now, why would Inno feel that numbers they present would be believed? And even if they were believed, players frequently claim something has changed recently, so they wouldn't accept that old numbers mean anything and Inno would be in a never-ending loop of providing new numbers.
 
Mustapha00

Mustapha00

Well-Known Member
Given the number of people playing the game, I'd imagine that there are few RNG outcomes that do not happen more often than one might think.
 

Vger

Well-Known Member
If you flip a (fair) coin ten times, you might get this outcome:
H H H H H H H H H H

Or you might get this outcome:
H T H H H T T H T T

Which outcome is more likely to happen? Which is more random?
 
Emberguard

Emberguard

Well-Known Member
Vger said:
If you flip a (fair) coin ten times, you might get this outcome:
H H H H H H H H H H

Or you might get this outcome:
H T H H H T T H T T

Which outcome is more likely to happen? Which is more random?
Click to expand...
They’re both random and both going to happen if you flip enough times. It’s not that unusual to get 10 heads in a row. I’ve got that result numerous times in various board games, card games and video games. Not as often as I don’t get that one specific result, but it’s still not that unusual of a result on its own for a 50/50 flip of such a small sample size.
 
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