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Spin the Wheel probabilities

BigBrian614

Member
OMG
If this were remotely true, everyone would be hitting it, not just the couple of players every year who claim to do so. And if you really knew when to stop the wheel, you would be hitting at least 95%, if not 100%. It just ain't true.
Or you can just see that as soon as your "Refresh and Spin" the predetermined prize is already darkened before you hit stop therefore proving that hitting the stop button does nothing.
 

BigBrian614

Member
Prizes... I got some nice one up kits, Reno kits, Sentinel Outpost, Sentinel Outpost upgrades, Store item kits, Govenors Villa parts, Forge Points...
Well you must be the lucky one, all I got was mostly coins, 10% boosts, supplies, frags, unneeded troops and trees.
 

wolfhoundtoo

Well-Known Member
I suspect it's more likely that you lacked patience. It is possible that your hood were all waiting on someone else to spin the wheel or to refresh it but since you didn't need to worry about time until this weekend (although you could actually wait till the last hour to do the spins but you'd more likely have to refresh the wheel yourself more) I don't see why you 'needed' to spin the wheel before that time. Of course checking on the wheel and what was on it whenever you logged on helped to find wheels that might have better stuff on it.
 
This was an interesting read with a good chunk of the messages deleted.

I spun around 520 times during the event, and averaged a gold just under every 7 spins. However, I did not refresh the wheel and always worked from wheels that were already in process, which means in some cases full circles were already closed and in other cases, I was closing circles as I burned through spins. This leads me to believe that the odds fluctuate with the amount of active circles available when you spin. So the odds start at 1/9, but increase in your favor each time a circle closes. This would seem to best explain why those that refreshed continually experienced closer to the 1/9, while more selective spinning resulted in higher success rates. Unfortunately, the confidence interval width even for my 520 spins is still too wide to say for sure vs a straightforward 1/9 chance.