Algona
Well-Known Member
4.14%
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4.14%
mandatoryIDstinks
Member
Is this a test? Each day you have the same odds. If it happened yesterday (4.14%) you have the same odds of it happening again today (4.14%). If it happened twice in a row the odds of it happening tomorrow remain the same (4.14%).
If you’re asking the odds that it happen two consecutive days those odds are 0.041402 * 0.041402 = 0.001714 or about once every year and a half.
Three days in a row? Once in almost 39 years.
Lord Karl the Vicious
New Member
It is true. The chance of their poor luck with RNG is 1/623,760 while the chance of winning the jackpot on the powerball is 1/292,201,338. However, this is still extremely extremely unlikely to randomly occur. For comparison, the chance per year of being struck by lightning if you live the the US is 1/500,000. The HC 1/24 reward was calculated using numbers from the FoE wiki. Feel free to double check if you want.
Lord Karl the Vicious
New Member
The 4.14% is the correct figure. We tend to get upset as we tend to think simple expected probability accurately models RNG. This is only true if you take an infinitely large sample. For a small sample, simple expected probability is often not accurate. Based on simple expected probability (how are minds are rigged), you would get 2.56 rewards per day with a level 30 HC. However, there is in fact a 4.14% chance of not getting anything. That is a 1/24 chance. As a general rule of thumb, if an event has a greater than 1% chance of happening, don't get too agro about it. That will save you from a lot of emotional and mental distress.
Emberguard
Well-Known Member
Funny thing is in 2014 there was one guy in melbourne that won the powerball twice in two weeks. And this year in May in Colorado someone won twice on the same day