MightyMaverick
New Member
I have had 5 wells for over three months and I harvest them every day. I have only hit for diamonds one time! Why is this?
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Wishing Well Diamonds
- Thread starter MightyMaverick
- Start date
UBERhelp1
Well-Known Member
You have been unlucky.
RazorbackPirate
Well-Known Member
Given their diamond hit rate of approx 1%, you can expect to get diamonds from each well about 3 times per year. Remember that with this hit rate, every collection has a 1% chance of diamonds, not getting them for any period of time doesn't increase your chances to get them later. However, you can be confident that over an extended number of collections, in the hundreds and thousands, you will collect diamonds at the 1% rate.
IMHO, I don't think WWs are worth the space. unless I were building a WW diamond farm city. GE and GBG are much better ways to get diamonds.
IMHO, I don't think WWs are worth the space. unless I were building a WW diamond farm city. GE and GBG are much better ways to get diamonds.
DeletedUser
I have 3 Diamond farms with a couple of dozen WWs in each and there are still some days when none of them hit Diamonds. On rare occasions two might hit on one day, but I'm happy if one a day out of all of them hits. (I also do GE and some GBG in all 3, so I get more than what the WWs give.)
-Sebastian-
Active Member
The way I find it most useful to think about the probabilities is something like this: a Wishing Well collects 1/day, has a 1.25% chance of 50 diamonds. So each well should give 0.625 diamonds/day. 5 wells should give 3.125 diamonds/day. So over three months (3*30 days), you should on average get 281.25 diamonds from your 5 wells, which works out to 5-6 hits. If you only hit once, that's unlucky, but not any more unusual than hitting 10 times. And I bet somewhere, someone hit 10 times, and didn't even think anything was unusual.
In general, Wishing Wells are a long-term, very very low-effort way to get diamonds. If you're spending the time tracking the hits you get, you might be better off using that time to do more GE or GBG.
In general, Wishing Wells are a long-term, very very low-effort way to get diamonds. If you're spending the time tracking the hits you get, you might be better off using that time to do more GE or GBG.
RazorbackPirate
Well-Known Member
The only problem with above is that the hit rate is 1%, not 1.25%. The info on the 'Wiki that shall not be named' is incorrect. @Algona recently completed a very long study with thousands of data points that confirm the drop rate of 1%. The same 1% drop rate that used to be on the said Wiki, before some yahoo changed it.
-Sebastian-
Active Member
That's very good to know. Thanks a lot! :-D
So the corrected numbers are now: a Wishing Well collects 1/day, has a 1.00% chance of 50 diamonds. So each well should give 0.5 diamonds/day. 5 wells should give 2.5 diamonds/day. So over three months (3*30 days), you should on average get 225 diamonds from your 5 wells, which works out to 4-5 hits. I guess you're not quite as unlucky as I thought, earlier.
[Edit: I was writing quickly, and what I meant was something more like: If my information is correct, and my understanding of probability is correct, and my math is correct, then the diamond production of a Wishing Well should average out to 0.5 diamonds/day. The key missing phrase is "average out to"; this is all just probabilities, but I suppose it's important to be clear when we're talking about diamonds, which are like real money. The "should" was merelhy intended to express my lack of certainty in the calculation, and as it turns out, my information was indeed wrong. Thanks to @RazorbackPirate for pointing it out, and to @Algona for collecting all that data in the first place.]
So the corrected numbers are now: a Wishing Well collects 1/day, has a 1.00% chance of 50 diamonds. So each well should give 0.5 diamonds/day. 5 wells should give 2.5 diamonds/day. So over three months (3*30 days), you should on average get 225 diamonds from your 5 wells, which works out to 4-5 hits. I guess you're not quite as unlucky as I thought, earlier.
[Edit: I was writing quickly, and what I meant was something more like: If my information is correct, and my understanding of probability is correct, and my math is correct, then the diamond production of a Wishing Well should average out to 0.5 diamonds/day. The key missing phrase is "average out to"; this is all just probabilities, but I suppose it's important to be clear when we're talking about diamonds, which are like real money. The "should" was merelhy intended to express my lack of certainty in the calculation, and as it turns out, my information was indeed wrong. Thanks to @RazorbackPirate for pointing it out, and to @Algona for collecting all that data in the first place.]
Last edited:
UBERhelp1
Well-Known Member
Doing the math on the percentages, they are quite unlucky.That's very good to know. Thanks a lot! :-D
So the corrected numbers are now: a Wishing Well collects 1/day, has a 1.00% chance of 50 diamonds. So each well should give 0.5 diamonds/day. 5 wells should give 2.5 diamonds/day. So over three months (3*30 days), you should on average get 225 diamonds from your 5 wells, which works out to 4-5 hits. I guess you're not quite as unlucky as I thought, earlier.
5 wells*3*30 days=450 collections
100(1-(1-0.01)^450)=98.9% chance that there will be at least one hit over that time frame.
-Sebastian-
Active Member
They did say they got just one hit, though. But even if not, that's about 1 in 1000 odds, and my main world has over 7000 active players. So 7 of our active players were cursed from the start to have that bad luck, and I don't think it's *that* strange that one of them would have actually put up the wishing wells, and also happens to use the forums. Let alone other worlds. *shrug* I'm just as bad at probabilities as the next human, though, so maybe I'm just not being surprised when I should. It's not like the news these days isn't full of people misinterpreting small probabilities. Sometimes in life, you just get the short straw. :-/