Blueprints Aren't Random

[Salsuero]

I get what you're saying. But they are free to not read these posts on a thread that I created.

That is true, but you can only control your responses (or non-responses as the case may be). I'm simply trying to suggest that you do so in a more positive way because I have seen what happens when you don't. Just advice. (For the record, I don't always follow my own advice... and sometimes I do pay for it.)

Frankly I don't care if I piss off a certain poster in here or two.

You might think differently when it spills over into the actual game.

I was just here to ask a simple question.

I will say... it does appear that there is no such thing as a "simple" question in these forums!

Thanks for your advice.

No problem. Just wanted to help you prevent some angst later.

Back to the original question. It would seem that a few people have experienced this same issue.

As I said... it's not just you. It happens to everyone in the game. I can't prove it, but I think it's actually built into the BP random generation algorithm. Either way, you are not alone. We all have to live with the same crappy results. And sometimes pay for that last BP when patience runs out and trading 2:1 frustrates you to your wit's end.

 

[ndstate]

I get what you're saying. I have run into some interesting people in the two plus years I've been playing this game. Thanks for actually confirming that this is happening to other people also.

 

[wolfhoundtoo]

Random blueprints means that every now and then someone (in this case you) will have an unfortunate run of luck and not get that last blueprint. Every time you get a blueprint you have 8 chances not to get it and 1 chance to get the one you are looking for on that GB. I've gone quite awhile on my Arc and not gotten that last blueprint. When I got to a point where I needed to open the next level, I traded blueprints until I got the one I needed. If you are doing Arc trades you'll get plenty of blueprints so trading them becomes less critical as you accumulate the blueprints.

 

[DeletedUser31392]

View attachment 8925

Seems ok to me... LOL

How many of each do you truly have though? I remember seeing @LacLongQuan ’s screenshot of her Arc, over 100 of some, 0 of another, and level 11111 unlocked. That does show some disparity.

And if I may assume correctly, you unlock 1 level at a time to keep the rewards in the club, eh? Just curious

 

[Freshmeboy]

There is a rarity in bps as well as in goods...it's a design to influence diamond use...And the rarity is different for each player. Every player I talked to noticed this same rarity in every GB...not one could say they had an even amount which is just as random. For the hell of it, I built my Colisseum and ejected all the levels then traded dupes until I had four singles left. Over time the disparity continued, just with a different single bp, but months of GE and RC's just continues the trend with one bp being extremely rare. Will INNO ever admit it...? No. Can anybody say they have an even amount (or close to it) in large numbers on any GB...?

 

[Salsuero]

How many of each do you truly have though? I remember seeing @LacLongQuan ’s screenshot of her Arc, over 100 of some, 0 of another, and level 11111 unlocked. That does show some disparity.

Well, it was a joke.

And if I may assume correctly, you unlock 1 level at a time to keep the rewards in the club, eh? Just curious

I do now, but I made the mistake of opening up to level 50 right away. That was a painful lesson learned. I'm not on level 51 and loving it going one at a time.

 

[Algona]

I've got the same problem in my LMA city. 40 BPs and I still don't have the lower right corner BP. Not worried about it though. It;s not ruining my day that I'm missing the last BP for Notre Dame.

@LacLongQuan ’s screenshot of her Arc, over 100 of some, 0 of another, and level 11111 unlocked. That does show some disparity.

As expected. It would be a real eye opener if after opening thousands of levels there were not some differences in the leftover BGPs.

 

[Darkbox]

Perhaps some of the longer-term members should be nicer to the newer members. And not to say how these threads are a waste of time when they could just leave at any time.

Off topic but I am with you on this one. Some of the "established" members are just....

 

[*Arturis*]

Not a problem in this case lol
http://prntscr.com/hn2guv

 

[DeletedUser31498]

It didn't need to. My question was if people were experiencing that or not. Not if I was having problems leveling the great building.



You are free to leave at any time. You are just pissed off because I called you out after your post where you were trying to be "smart."

Bye Felicia.

@ndstate welcome!!

Statistically though, sharing the fact that you've opened up 17 levels without trading is actually quite meaningful. I get how fun the conspiracy theory is, but we're talking about 9 BPs, and over 17 levels, your distribution is actually exceedingly close to "average." As in, if you had exactly the same number of every BP, then to me, THAT is demonstrating it's not random. Having 22 of one and 17 of another, given each is 1/9 and you've accumulated 17*9 = ~150 of them, a difference of 5 between you max and min seems non-random?

Further, people only mention the GB where they notice this "discrepancy". Given you need to be pretty advanced to have that many BPs in a GB, I'm guessing these people have lots of prints on 15 GBs at least? So over 15 GBs, and hundreds of prints of which you're 1/9 to get one, idk your particular case isn't an anecdote I would note.

If people have very large differences over much larger samples, send it to me and I'll lyk the odds of that being random.

 

[DeletedUser31498]

Hi,

I searched and didn't come up with anything. Is anyone else experiencing this where you can't seem to get one blueprint? Is this just Inno trying to get me to spend diamonds? 76 blueprints and none on one spot...

Sorry I should have mentioned this. But thinking, "76 prints and none of the one" is obviously not correct when evaluating this. Really, it's 76 plus 17 of ALL of them, and none of one print. Sorry formatting didn't work.

current past total
8 17 25
10 17 27
12 17 29
5 17 22
11 17 28
11 17 28
14 17 31
5 17 22
0 17 17
76 153 229

So ~230 prints, odds of 1/9 per, and the standard deviation is ~SQRT(229*1/9*8/9) = 4.75. Your expected number of each print is 230 * (1/9) = 25.4, so you underperformed by 8.4, or 8.4/4.75 = Z score of 1.77. Odds of that happening are 4%, but given you have 9 prints, and we're cherry picking the low one, certainly not ready to jump on the conspiracy bandwagon.

If someone has a large sample and hasn't traded a meaningful amount, send it on over. But again, given a big enough sample, *someone* has to be unlucky and get a lot less of one print.

 

[Salsuero]

Sorry I should have mentioned this. But thinking, "76 prints and none of the one" is obviously not correct when evaluating this. Really, it's 76 plus 17 of ALL of them, and none of one print. Sorry formatting didn't work.

current past total
8 17 25
10 17 27
12 17 29
5 17 22
11 17 28
11 17 28
14 17 31
5 17 22
0 17 17
76 153 229

So ~230 prints, odds of 1/9 per, and the standard deviation is ~SQRT(229*1/9*8/9) = 4.75. Your expected number of each print is 230 * (1/9) = 25.4, so you underperformed by 8.4, or 8.4/4.75 = Z score of 1.77. Odds of that happening are 4%, but given you have 9 prints, and we're cherry picking the low one, certainly not ready to jump on the conspiracy bandwagon.

If someone has a large sample and hasn't traded a meaningful amount, send it on over. But again, given a big enough sample, *someone* has to be unlucky and get a lot less of one print.

Nerd! LOL

 

[DeletedUser31498]

Nerd! LOL

Sal, FINALLY we can agree on something!!

 

[Lucifer1904]

It is completely random. As a matter of fact just today I was having the same problem with my CDM.

 

[DeletedUser14354]

I get what you're saying. I have run into some interesting people in the two plus years I've been playing this game. Thanks for actually confirming that this is happening to other people also.

As Gutmeister calculated for you, the odds of you having the disparity you described in BPs for that particular GB is 4%. Now, ask yourself how many GBs you have? Does that same disparity exist with ALL of them? Or are you just focused on this particular disparity. This is important because, if you have 10 GBs (reasonable for someone that indicated he/she was playing for 2 years), then the odds of you having a disparity like this for a single GB is better than 50%.

Of course there are people that have run into the same situation with one particular GB.

From a mathematical point of view, it would be far more surprising if people WEREN'T running into this issue.

 

[DeletedUser14354]

A competition is held to determine the world's best coin flipper. 1024 people are invited. The contest proceeds in rounds. Those that flip a head advance, those that flip a tail are eliminated. Lets further assume that the odds are exactly 50/50 (fair coin).

At the end of round 1, 512 people are eliminated.
Round 2 eliminates another 256.
Round 3 eliminates 128 people.
Round 4 eliminates another 64 people.
Round 5, 32 people. Round 6, 16 people. This leaves 16 remaining contestants.
Round 7 eliminates 8 people.
Round 8, 4 people.
Round 9 eliminates 2 people.
Round 10 eliminates 1 person.

This leaves our winner. This person has successfully flipped 10 heads in a row.

Question: during which round would the OP start complaining about a conspiracy?

 

[Algona]

At the end of round 1, 512 people are eliminated.

Dunno about the OP, but I;d have a serious problem with exactly half being eliminated in every round, Except the last one of course.

 

[Salsuero]

Except the last one of course.

What if the last two both flip heads? Does it become a flip-off? I would mess with people and insert a two-headed coin for that last round for a while... screw with the probabilities and statistics people! Their heads would explode!!!

 

[DeletedUser32348]

Ok, people are missing that I am level 11 with 17 already unlocked. My question pertains to if anyone else experienced anything similar and if it's a way of them getting us to spend diamonds.

A guildmate has been experiencing the same problem as you

 

[DeletedUser14354]

Dunno about the OP, but I;d have a serious problem with exactly half being eliminated in every round, Except the last one of course.

I was trying to keep it simple for purposes of the analogy.