Building Plans

[Brutusone]

Is there a point where you have to buy building plans to complete a set?? I'm at level 28 of Zeus and I keep on getting building plans except the very center piece. I now have a total of 34 sections from 2 to 6 and I can't seem to get the center piece. Does anyone know the answer?

 

[Beorn Bear]

No, there is not a point where you have to buy a blueprint. You can choose to at any time. Or, you can be patient and keep plugging away with aiding buildings from Zeus' era (Bronze Age) and/or donating to friend's/neighbor's/guild mate's Statues of Zeus to try to get the requisite blueprint(s). Again, your choice.

 

[Brutusone]

No, there is not a point where you have to buy a blueprint. You can choose to at any time. Or, you can be patient and keep plugging away with aiding buildings from Zeus' era (Bronze Age) and/or donating to friend's/neighbor's/guild mate's Statues of Zeus to try to get the requisite blueprint(s). Again, your choice.

Where are you finding this information. I now have 39 section now 2 to 7 bp for each block-but the center block? Statistically this should not be happening if it was truly random.

 

[Dr. Smite]

Statistically this should not be happening if it was truly random.

Common misconception. While it is true that it is improbable to get a ton of the same blueprints, The individual chance of getting a specific blue print is always 1 in 9, whether or not you got 30 of that same blueprint before it (though we all love to hate the RNGs in FOE).

 

[Beorn Bear]

Where are you finding this information. I now have 39 section now 2 to 7 bp for each block-but the center block? Statistically this should not be happening if it was truly random.

What you're forgetting is that you've already used 19 full sets of blueprints to get that Zeus to level 28. The original set that got you to level 10, and another full set for each of the next 18 levels. So while right now it looks like you have between 2 and 7 of each of the others without getting one of the center blueprint, in actuality you have had 19 of the center one and between 21 and 26 of each of the others. When you look at it from the beginning of your blueprint collecting like that, you see that it is well within statistical probability.

 

[Agent327]

Where are you finding this information. I now have 39 section now 2 to 7 bp for each block-but the center block? Statistically this should not be happening if it was truly random.

https://en.wiki.forgeofempires.com/index.php?title=Great_Buildings

 

[Brutusone]

https://en.wiki.forgeofempires.com/index.php?title=Great_Buildings

Thanks for the link but that doesn't really address my question. It tells me how to build a GB and how to get bp, but not if there are any special restrictions that might happen as you go through higher levels.

 

[Agent327]

If there were special restrictions it would be mentioned.

 

[Emberguard]

Thanks for the link but that doesn't really address my question. It tells me how to build a GB and how to get bp, but not if there are any special restrictions that might happen as you go through higher levels.

There isn’t any. We’ve levelled GBs higher than your current lvl

 

[Brutusone]

What you're forgetting is that you've already used 19 full sets of blueprints to get that Zeus to level 28. The original set that got you to level 10, and another full set for each of the next 18 levels. So while right now it looks like you have between 2 and 7 of each of the others without getting one of the center blueprint, in actuality you have had 19 of the center one and between 21 and 26 of each of the others. When you look at it from the beginning of your blueprint collecting like that, you see that it is well within statistical probability.

Sorry but Dr Smite (listed just above yours) is a better answer when it comes to probability. The chances are always 1 to 9. The probability of not getting a particular square after 39 attempts is about 1%. That is a very unlikely event!

 

[Emberguard]

Sorry but Dr Smite (listed just above yours) is a better answer when it comes to probability. The chances are always 1 to 9. The probability of not getting a particular square after 39 attempts is about 1%. That is a very unlikely event!

Keep in mind it‘s not just 39 attempts

it’s 9 + (9x18) + 34 = 205 BPs total / 9 = a statistical average of 22 BPs in each spot. They’ve already had 18 in that spot. That’s not very far off what they’d have in a absolutely even spread of BPs. It’s not going to be absolutely even though because it’s random.

 

[Brutusone]

Keep in mind it‘s not just 39 attempts

it’s 9 + (9x18) + 34 = 205 BPs total / 9 = a statistical average of 22 BPs in each spot. They’ve already had 18 in that spot. That’s not very far off what they’d have in a absolutely even spread of BPs. It’s not going to be absolutely even though because it’s random.

Sorry, but it doesn't work that why. You always have a 1 in 9 chance of getting a certain square. In probability you deal with the chance of getting a certain square. In Statistics the calculation of for this problem is 8/9 to the 39 power, because that is the problem we are currently addressing. If I start with a clear slate and attempt to obtain a certain square over the next 39 attempts what is the probability of obtaining one certain square the probability is 99%. (I taught college statistics for 20 years, I know that is how this problem is set up!)

 

[Emberguard]

So are you claiming to have used all BPs prior to the last 39? (Which in the OP said 34?). Which would be a little different from simply being at lvl 28 having 39 extras

 

[Brutusone]

Yes I now have 39 because I collected 5 more since the first time I wrote. 34 + 5 = 39. And, I don't understand what the second sentence means?

 

[Beorn Bear]

Yes I now have 39 because I collected 5 more since the first time I wrote. 34 + 5 = 39. And, I don't understand what the second sentence means?

You claim to have taught Statistics and don't understand her simple statement? Let me help you. Your position relies on isolating the 39 occurrences of receiving your current stock of blueprints from all the other occurrences of receiving a blueprint for that GB. Unless you got to level 28 and at that point had zero blueprints for every spot, your point is invalid. In reality you have had 210 occurrences of receiving a blueprint for that GB, and 19 of those times it was a center spot blueprint.

Another point against your position (which no one has mentioned) is that whenever you received a blueprint from any source other than contribution rewards from a donation to another Statue of Zeus, the number of possible blueprints is at least 18. If you receive a blueprint from aiding a Bronze Age building, you have the possibility of getting a blueprint from either the Zeus or the Tower of Babel. That's 18 possibilities. Same thing if you're in Bronze Age and receive a random blueprint from some type of quest or event reward. And for each age over Bronze 18 additional possibilities are thrown into the mix for quest/event random blueprint rewards.

In short, your point relies on your erroneous focus on just those 39 occurrences. That is valid if, and only if, you received all 39 current blueprints after unlocking level 28 and also received them all as rewards from donations to other Statues of Zeus. Now do you get it?

EDIT: I see that you are in Space Age Asteroid Belt. That means that every time you receive a random blueprint from a quest/event/GE/etc. reward there are 37x18 possibilities for each of those blueprints. That is 666 different possible blueprints you could receive each time.

 

[Brutusone]

You claim to have taught Statistics and don't understand her simple statement? Let me help you. Your position relies on isolating the 39 occurrences of receiving your current stock of blueprints from all the other occurrences of receiving a blueprint for that GB. Unless you got to level 28 and at that point had zero blueprints for every spot, your point is invalid. In reality you have had 210 occurrences of receiving a blueprint for that GB, and 19 of those times it was a center spot blueprint.

Another point against your position (which no one has mentioned) is that whenever you received a blueprint from any source other than contribution rewards from a donation to another Statue of Zeus, the number of possible blueprints is at least 18. If you receive a blueprint from aiding a Bronze Age building, you have the possibility of getting a blueprint from either the Zeus or the Tower of Babel. That's 18 possibilities. Same thing if you're in Bronze Age and receive a random blueprint from some type of quest or event reward. And for each age over Bronze 18 additional possibilities are thrown into the mix for quest/event random blueprint rewards.

In short, your point relies on your erroneous focus on just those 39 occurrences. That is valid if, and only if, you received all 39 current blueprints after unlocking level 28 and also received them all as rewards from donations to other Statues of Zeus. Now do you get it?

Its not a claim, I taught for Siena Heights University, Spring Arbor University and Kellogg Community College for a total of 20 years. You are attempting to use "the theory of large numbers" to this problem, that does not apply to this situation. And, yes I started with a clean slate at level 28 and have received all those blueprints from rewards. So it is not erroneous focus! Starting from a clean slate, I have a 1/9 chance of getting any single part. To calculate the probability you start with 1 (or 9/9), You subtract 1/9 from 9/9 that gives you 8/9 (This is used for a Binomial Distribution), you then multiple 8/9 by itself, how many times the event can happen, in this case its 39 times. This get you a probability of this happening about 1% of the time. In other words 99% I should have gotten all the plans to go to the next level. This makes it an unusual event. This question goes out to those people who don't use diamonds to buy building plans and have reach level 28 or higher on the Zeus GB. (Or seen this with any other GB.) Have they seen a similar situation!

 

[Algona]

Does anyone know the answer?

Yes.

When you look at it from the beginning of your blueprint collecting like that, you see that it is well within statistical probability.

That is the answer to your question.

Spoiler

(Or seen this with any other GB.) Have they seen a similar situation!

Yes, happens all the time.

To check this, go look at some GBs you've never built that you have collected a lot of BPs for.

Atomium is the second GB listed in my Inventory. I have a total of 219 BPs. average is 23 per slot. Left to right, top to bottom individually 27, 30, 14, 28, 29, 27, 24, 20, 30

No statistical anomalies there.

IIf I built it through lvl 23 (That would take 14 sets od BPs.), I'd have 105 BPs left over, average 11 per slot.

Individually though they'd be left to right, top to botto, 13, 16, 0, 14, 16, 13, 10, 6, 16

That 0 sticks out. And yet the total number of BPs never changed.

John Clayton Greystoke is trying to tell you that you are not looking at all the BPs on yout Zeus.

You've gotten a total of

level 28 of Zeus

That's 19 sets = 171 BPs plus

I now have 39

Total 210 BPs, average 24.

You actually have a series of 9 numbers average 24 with one of those numbers being 19 and the rest over 24. Is that statistically meaningful?

 

[Beorn Bear]

And, yes I started with a clean slate at level 28 and have received all those blueprints from rewards.

So you're claiming that at the moment you unlocked level 28, you were left with zero blueprints in all 9 slots????? Now that, my friend, is a statistical impossibility. Okay, not impossible, but so improbable as to leave no meaningful difference between the actual probability and zero probability. No one is going to believe that you received exactly 19 of each individual blueprint up to that point. (And if you really did end up with zero in each slot, it tells me that you've been buying blueprints with Diamonds up to this point. Which would explain you being surprised at this situation when you are in such an advanced era.)

 

[Brutusone]

Yes.



That is the answer to your question.

Spoiler

Yes, happens all the time.

To check this, go look at some GBs you've never built that you have collected a lot of BPs for.

Atomium is the second GB listed in my Inventory. I have a total of 219 BPs. average is 23 per slot. Left to right, top to bottom individually 27, 30, 14, 28, 29, 27, 24, 20, 30

No statistical anomalies there.

IIf I built it through lvl 23 (That would take 14 sets od BPs.), I'd have 105 BPs left over, average 11 per slot.

Individually though they'd be left to right, top to botto, 13, 16, 0, 14, 16, 13, 10, 6, 16

That 0 sticks out. And yet the total number of BPs never changed.

John Clayton Greystoke is trying to tell you that you are not looking at all the BPs on yout Zeus.

You've gotten a total of


That's 19 sets = 171 BPs plus



Total 210 BPs, average 24.

You actually have a series of 9 numbers average 24 with one of those numbers being 19 and the rest over 24. Is that statistically meaningful?

This goes back to the "theory of large numbers" which does not apply in this situation! Please read the math formula I've previously included.

 

[Algona]

This goes back to the "theory of large numbers" which does not apply in this situation!

No, my reply is for the occasions I've seen folk talk about the situation I described: Complaining about not having BPs after they've opened levels. Which doesn't apply to you, my mistake, I apologize.

I did not understand that your complaint was that you had gotten 39 misses in a row.

1 in 10,000 chance.

You drew the short straw. Tens of thousands of players. You're not alone.

But you already knew that?