There are no moving goal posts. Gold has been the top 1%, silver the top 5%, bronze the top 20%, etc. since the start of the event. The huge delta between silver and gold is because the whales are pumping tons of revenue into Inno, which lets the rest of us play as free as we want to. Go whales!
Anyone want to hazard a guess what this little setup might have cost?
You will most likely get the piece you need, but there is around an 8% chance that with 6K florins, you will not get any specials.
In other words, you have a 92% chance of getting the piece you need with 6k Florins, although the average per piece is 2,500 Florins. That 6k of Florins ought to get you 2 pieces if you're close to average, 3 if you're lucky, 1 if you're really unlucky, and zero only if you end up being that extreme outlier that shows up more on the spreadsheet than in reality.
In other words, yes, there is a statistical possibility that you can toss a coin 50 times in a row and have it land on heads every single time. Actually making it do so in reality will take at least a week or more, if not a lifetime.
Don't let the use of a double negative discourage you. They're intentionally designed to do so.
I thought I read somewhere that the hoods aren't changing again until the event is over. Is that true?
Maybe the original announcement? As such I suspect it's true.
As to the event itself....just not diggin' it. Barely doing it. If I remember to look at my ticket bar I use them. If I have florins I use them. But really nothing I'm longing for. Odds suck. Set pieces weary. And I'm still recuperating from the last event. Need longer breaks in between.
Oh poor you. All that work not leaving you enough time to click Auto-Battle? Understandable though. Unlike most others, this event takes a high degree of planning, skill, patience, diligence, and self-restraint, in order to not just succeed, but excel. That's a whole lot different than frantically clicking buttons as fast as you can.