DeletedUser30900
why people don't understand that even if you get heads 99 times in a row, the chance of getting tail on the 100th coin flips is still 50%
-
We are looking for you! Always wanted to join our Supporting Team? We are looking for enthusiastic moderators!
Take a look at our recruitement page for more information and how you can apply:
DeletedUser34480
You're right.
You are like politician.
Blaming everyone, talking not about topic but about how bad your opponent is.
DeletedUser34480
People knew it before you were even born.
Sleep tight.
Last edited by a moderator:
DeletedUser29623
I’m not a statistician, but why would anyone use a bus schedule or fast-food breakfast prep time as an example of randomness? Buses have drivers who at least attempt to arrive at regular intervals, and whether they succeed or not depends on non-random factors like traffic and weather conditions. Same with the fast-food prep workers, who try to supply breakfasts as quickly as possible. As soon as intentionality is involved, there can be no randomness. You have a right to complain about late buses and delayed breakfasts because someone has the job of making sure that doesn’t happen.
Maybe you are under the impression that when Inno states that a prize has a 30% probability of being awarded, they are effectively promising that if you try 10 times, you will win that prize 3 times? Or that if you try 100 times, you are guaranteed to get it 33 times? That might seem to make sense because Inno is a company run by people like a bus company or restaurant and you are their customer. But if they are using a random number generator, there are no guarantees. A better analogy would be rolling dice, or specifically one die. There is no one to guarantee that each face will appear exactly the same number of times because it is truly random. Yet each face has an equal probability of appearing each time you roll. In fact, if each face appeared an equal number of times in X rolls, that would be a sign that the die is loaded, since even distributions are unusual under randomness.
Maybe you are under the impression that when Inno states that a prize has a 30% probability of being awarded, they are effectively promising that if you try 10 times, you will win that prize 3 times? Or that if you try 100 times, you are guaranteed to get it 33 times? That might seem to make sense because Inno is a company run by people like a bus company or restaurant and you are their customer. But if they are using a random number generator, there are no guarantees. A better analogy would be rolling dice, or specifically one die. There is no one to guarantee that each face will appear exactly the same number of times because it is truly random. Yet each face has an equal probability of appearing each time you roll. In fact, if each face appeared an equal number of times in X rolls, that would be a sign that the die is loaded, since even distributions are unusual under randomness.
DeletedUser30900
And you are still complaining? That’s quite wise
DeletedUser34480
No.
I've stated my point few times already.
When a high chance is declared (to me, even 5% is high, but 30% clearly is), provider should make sure it is not paired with regular wild (100%+) swings.
It's got to comply with a reasonable expectation.
Samples, I've provided, are to demonstrate that mathematical average just cannot be mindlessly applied.
Last edited by a moderator:
DeletedUser3882
I skipped page two... Appologies to anyone posting there that I overlooked.
I feel dumber now reading this thread and am wondering why I spent all this time reading page 1 and 3 :/
I feel dumber now reading this thread and am wondering why I spent all this time reading page 1 and 3 :/
Algona
Well-Known Member
10 PRINT "This is the bus ride that never ends."
20 PRINT "It goes on and on my friends."
30 PRINT "Some people started riding it before they knew just what it was."
40 PRINT "And now they have to keep on riding it forever just because."
50 GOTO 10
wolfhoundtoo
Well-Known Member
Except it does not say anything about averages in the carnival setup It gives you the % chance that you will win a prize each and every time that you open the chest. You simply lack a basic understanding of probabilities as evidenced by your repeated use of the term 'average'. Nor in case you missed it are you purchasing anything directly in case you missed the patently obvious way the game works. Even if you are purchasing diamonds and using them to get tickets the only thing you purchased was a 'spin'. Look up 'slot machines' and how they work.
DeletedUser
So first you accuse someone else of thinking the game is rigged one way:
And now you're essentially asking them to rig the game the other way:
You are coming close to leaving me speechless with this dreck you keep posting.
DeletedUser34480
Lessen a deviation is not rigging by any means.
Pal, get some intelligence.
DeletedUser34480
Did you really understand what I've said in that post?
I know, my English is pretty rough.
DeletedUser
Your English is much better than your logic and understanding of probability.
Algona
Well-Known Member
The crowd bursts into yawns, groans, and people reaching for airsick bags as Weird Algona Postovic reaches for his accordion and bursts into song:.
Riding in this bus down the rabbit hole
This thread is pretty whack (Yeah!)
Couldn't find anything that made any sense
I really wish I had clicked on page back.
With analogies smelly as a locker room
OP left junk all over the thread
You made the same mistake I did by answering
Now we're hurting in the head
Look out!
Another poster rides the bus
Another poster rides the bus
Another comes on and another comes on
Another poster rides the bus
Hey, he’ll reply to you
Another poster rides the bus
Riding in this bus down the rabbit hole
This thread is pretty whack (Yeah!)
Couldn't find anything that made any sense
I really wish I had clicked on page back.
With analogies smelly as a locker room
OP left junk all over the thread
You made the same mistake I did by answering
Now we're hurting in the head
Look out!
Another poster rides the bus
Another poster rides the bus
Another comes on and another comes on
Another poster rides the bus
Hey, he’ll reply to you
Another poster rides the bus
DeletedUser
Is there any mechanism/procedure for warning players about posting nonsensical garbage? Just asking.
Algona
Well-Known Member
Serious discussions of Probability can only be meaningful and persuasive if discussed using only the mathematics of probability.
Why use imprecise English when there is precise mathematics? Everything not using math is unsubstantiated babble and opinion. No math, no meaning. No serious data rigorously recorded, no reliable conclusions.
English based analogies are meaningless, whether it;s buses, aardvarks, kids getting whooped in karate clas, stories of game play occurrances, hamburger flippers, or what is remembered from the last trip to the casino.
As the poster accusing INNO of malfeasance, it is incumbent on the OP to at the least provide rigorous data before attempting a mathematical analysis.
Anything else is a waste of time.
Since Lancer has (correctly in my opinion) reigned in this discussion I have nothing further to say in this matter until someone brings somethig mathematically meaningful to the discussion. Which ain't gonna happen.
Which is prolly a good thing for everyone, it means you'll be spared Weird Algona Postovic's parodies of "Everybody was Kung Fu Fighting." ("true592's kud was karate fighting") and "Let It Rock" ("Help me Spock").
Lucky you.
Why use imprecise English when there is precise mathematics? Everything not using math is unsubstantiated babble and opinion. No math, no meaning. No serious data rigorously recorded, no reliable conclusions.
English based analogies are meaningless, whether it;s buses, aardvarks, kids getting whooped in karate clas, stories of game play occurrances, hamburger flippers, or what is remembered from the last trip to the casino.
As the poster accusing INNO of malfeasance, it is incumbent on the OP to at the least provide rigorous data before attempting a mathematical analysis.
Anything else is a waste of time.
Since Lancer has (correctly in my opinion) reigned in this discussion I have nothing further to say in this matter until someone brings somethig mathematically meaningful to the discussion. Which ain't gonna happen.
Which is prolly a good thing for everyone, it means you'll be spared Weird Algona Postovic's parodies of "Everybody was Kung Fu Fighting." ("true592's kud was karate fighting") and "Let It Rock" ("Help me Spock").
Lucky you.
DeletedUser32389
I'm Guilty of enjoying this stuff more than the convo at hand. Guess I'm part of the problem in that sense
(and I know enough about statistics to know that this was all garbage to begin with)DeletedUser31882
Welp, that proves to me trolling appears to be your objective, rather than actually fixing/analyzing the randomizer.
Data, data, data. We cannot create bricks without clay.
I'm liking this analogy.
To take it further, it also depends on one's personal goals. I wanted 2-4 bridge upgrades when I opened 10+ chests. I ended up with 2 of the rarer SoK but zero bridge upgrades.
So on the one hand, my goal was a steaming pile of poo, but the SoK upgraded me to feeling like mud. If I looked at it from a 'Must get the SoKs!" angle, getting two SoKs(at 10% chance) for only 10-ish tries is good odds in my favor!
This kind of taps into @True592 's arguments in breakfast serving times and kids in karate.
We have to make sure we know what outcomes we want at the beginning: Specific Prizes from Carnival event, Breakfast served in a timely manner and/or 0-X expected injuries for my kid in the karate dojo. A plan for when these goals are not met is also sensible. If a restaurant does not serve food fast enough, I'd choose a different one that does, adapt my schedule or yell at the waitress to hurry it up because I will sue her if I am late to work again. If my kid is getting his teeth knocked out at the DoJo, I'd try a different dojo, encourage my kid to take up a hobby that has less of a risk of teeth loss or sue everyone involved, regardless if it was an accident or not. If I don't win the prizes I want in a video-game, I could move onto other parts of the game, spend currency to
The issue with all these analogies is the amount of assumptions that go into them.
The rhetorical breakfast diner requires two diners to compare average serve times. It also presumes the customer cannot adapt their schedule. "You're late for a work twice one week, are you still fine with the average serving time?". This calls us to be 'upset' with the diner, instead of questioning why the customer isn't giving themselves enough time to get to work on time.
The rhetorical Karate school ignores that being knocked down is a high probability action while teeth getting knocked out is a low one (Source: Last I checked, Karate was more about defensive take down throws than jaw kicks/punching). It also does not give context. Was the teeth thing a fluke accident? Was the knock down from an angry teacher? Were the punches from a toddler? The "Would you still be fine with the average?" forces us to reflect on our expectations. What if I do expect some teeth lose from karate over a 10 year period? Context in measuring averages for making judgement is important.
Which brings us back to the Carnival event. @True592 What are your expectations for the event? What averages are you measuring? What results are you expecting? Do you expect to always win the RNG prize you want? How much evidence have you collected to prove the problem lies with the randomizer? If you are trying to argue this point, why are you not gathering data to support it, especially from the people who do not share your viewpoint? What sort of data would you need to see to declare the randomizer was fixed? What do you hope to accomplish with your arguments? Would you like me to post my data here or would you like to check the Carnival thread to gather my and other player's data that has been deposited there to support your argument?
Regardless, RNG, like many things in life, doesn't care about our hopes and dreams. We just need to remain determined and make informed decisions to maximize the little control we have.