Easter Event Feedback

[DeletedUser8152]

The problem Stevie is that you are mixing up two questions:

First, is this year's event worse than last years? I'd say yes. Others will disagree, it is a matter of opinion.

Second, is this year's event an illegal atrocity that makes the game unplayable? The answer to that is no, that is a matter of fact. (OK maybe the blue arrow gets close. But it's not illegal )

 

[DeletedUser10789]

fine a 13.51% chance

My friend, did you not read what I wrote above.? It is not a 13.51% chance. You are killing me here.

 

[Ylisaveta]

I don't like the event much either. Played it already in beta and it's better than the sheer atrocity it started out as there, but still pretty bad. I take issue, however, with the continued harping on "Inno is making me spend money." Inno wants your money; there is no doubt that the event was structured so that people who either planned to go for all the Sok's they could get and are prepared to pay for them, or who have bad impulse control, would spend diamonds to get an SoK today. Big but coming: no one is forcing you to do anything. I have 30k diamonds, leftover from the two large packs I bought for the winter event I did not spend, and the pack I bought during the Valentine's event. I will not spend them today, for this, because I know the odds are bad and I don't want it enough; there will be other chances. Anything I win during this event, even "bad" prizes, will be free stuff because I choose not to spend diamonds on it.

 

[DeletedUser8152]

My friend, did you not read what I wrote above.? It is not a 13.51% chance. You are killing me here.

If you open two bronze chests, and each has a 7% chance of winning the SoK, then the chance of not winning it on the first chest is 0.93. The chance of not winning it on the 2nd chest is 0.93. The chance of not winning it in either chest is 0.93*0.93 = 0.8649. So the chance of winning at least one SoK is 1-0.8649 = 0.1351, or 13.51%.

 

[DeletedUser10789]

The problem Stevie is that you are mixing up two questions:

First, is this year's event worse than last years? I'd say yes. Others will disagree, it is a matter of opinion.

Second, is this year's event an illegal atrocity that makes the game unplayable? The answer to that is no, that is a matter of fact. (OK maybe the blue arrow gets close. But it's not illegal )

LOL....Yes and we both know what they say about opinions, right. lol.

Anyway, more to the point, to force a player who wants a certain building, the ONLY way is to spend money for it, YES it is illegal. This is based off of "the games" own advertising and marketing as the game as free to play. What you may not know about me, is that I am the fairest person out there. I am all about what is fair for one is fair for all. Call me crazy if you want too, but remember what I said to start off with. If they want to be fair, leave the same prize for the first few days time.

Also, you must understand that during MOST events, especially short ones (like this one), most prizes (good one's) ONLY come around ONCE (1 time). So, when "the game" makes a choice to put out a Very Valuable Item for the game that many lower levels want and covet, do you see this as fair at all.? Do you view this as being fair for the player who has just started and sees all the higher levels have tons of these and now they want a few themselves. This is really the sad part to me and sure you can hate me all you want too. I started this game 2 years ago now and over that time, many higher levels, taught me this game and showed me how to progress in the game. I am the Co-Leader of a Larger Guild in my primary world and people are very upset over this and for that it bothers me. I want all my fellow guild mates whom I consider friends and family to play a fun game that is fair to them and I try my hardest to teach them what others have taught me. This is the mark of any good guild leader, period.

It makes me sad that the lower levels are now forced to pay up for a great building and I truly hope you understand this and my intent here.

Steve - LordStevie

 

[DeletedUser10789]

If you open two bronze chests, and each has a 7% chance of winning the SoK, then the chance of not winning it on the first chest is 0.93. The chance of not winning it on the 2nd chest is 0.93. The chance of not winning it in either chest is 0.93*0.93 = 0.8649. So the chance of winning at least one SoK is 1-0.8649 = 0.1351, or 13.51%.

Can someone besides myself please explain to Jaelis why he is wrong here. Clearly he is not listening to me. You cannot add those two together. You still have the same chance twice. Therefore, you cannot add them together, as each time it resets itself to the same percentage. Do you understand that.? A 7% chance will always be a 7% chance. You cannot change it by saying, I bought 10 of them and I should then have a 70% chance of it, that's just WRONG.

 

[DeletedUser25273]

Can someone besides myself please explain to Jaelis why he is wrong here. Clearly he is not listening to me. You cannot add those two together. You still have the same chance twice. Therefore, you cannot add them together, as each time it resets itself to the same percentage. Do you understand that.? A 7% chance will always be a 7% chance. You cannot change it by saying, I bought 10 of them and I should then have a 70% chance of it, that's just WRONG.

Nope, Jaelis did the math right. Given a probability p for each draw, and assuming the draws to be independent, the change of getting 0 positive results is (1-p)^n, so the reverse, the odds of getting at least 1 is 1 (1-p)^n that is basic statistics. In your example, it would be 1-(1-0.07)^10 which is about .516 (51.6%), which isn't the 70% that your bad math example presents (the 0.7 value is actually the expected number of events, which will be higher than the odds of getting at least one, since sometimes you will get more than 1)

 

[DeletedUser24322]

Can someone besides myself please explain to Jaelis why he is wrong here. Clearly he is not listening to me. You cannot add those two together. You still have the same chance twice. Therefore, you cannot add them together, as each time it resets itself to the same percentage. Do you understand that.? A 7% chance will always be a 7% chance. You cannot change it by saying, I bought 10 of them and I should then have a 70% chance of it, that's just WRONG.

I have a BA in Applied Mathematics and Statistics Stevie, and you are absolutely correct. And I don't know how you could explain it any simpler (nor would I attempt to). I have no idea where these people get these numbers from. lol

And didn't your mother tell you never to have a battle of wits with an unarmed man?

 

[DeletedUser10789]

Nope, Jaelis did the math right. Given a probability p for each draw, and assuming the draws to be independent, the change of getting 0 positive results is (1-p)^n, so the reverse, the odds of getting at least 1 is 1 (1-p)^n that is basic statistics. In your example, it would be 1-(1-0.07)^10 which is about .516 (51.6%), which isn't the 70% that your bad math example presents (the 0.7 value is actually the expected number of events, which will be higher than the odds of getting at least one, since sometimes you will get more than 1)

WHAT...?
Come on, I was a Finance Major with multiple degrees and awards in Finance, Business and Economics. The basics of this is simple. You cannot add percentages together, as they are BOTH INDEPENDENT of each other and MUST remain that way. Just because you go to the store and buy a scratch off lottery ticket and you lose, does not mean the next one is a winner. In fact, the odds are the SAME as the first time. A fool will say, well I didn't win on this one, I will buy another, I have to eventually one will win. That is LOSER talk and the way in which they sucker you into thinking.

They are both INDEPENDENT results of each other and as such, they do NOT get added together for some magical number to make you think you have better odds. You don't. The odds, remain the same. The ONLY thing that changes is the Probability Ratio, NOT the odds or chances. Those will always remain the same. 7% will remain 7% NO MATTER WHAT. The Probability that you may get one on the 3rd or 4th changes, BUT the ODDS remain the same. Sorry the truth will always be the truth, no matter which way you try to say it.

 

[DeletedUser24322]

I will try to explain this as simple as possible.

If you have 10 dimes in a box and only 1 is dated 1999, and if you tried to pick that dime out, the odds at 10:1 meaning you have 1 chance out of 10. This converts to a 10% chance or probability of 1 in 10. No matter how many times you try, each time it will still be the same.

In the Easter event, the odds are already assigned. Though there are 8 prizes, it is not 8:1 because Inno has already assigned odds to each prize. So you just use that number to figure the odds. For example, SoK is 25% chance of winning, which converts to 4:1 odds or a probability of 1 in 4. No matter what you win, the prizes remain the same for the next chest, thus the same odds. As in all odds calculation, the number increases exponentially of getting the same outcome in a row. Winning a SoK (25%) is 4:1, winning 2 in a row is 16:1, winning 3 in a row is 64:1, etc., etc.

 

[DeletedUser25273]

But the odds of getting at least one somewhere in ALL the draws goes up as you make more draws. Yes, the odds of it being in the second chest don't change, but if you decide to open two chests, the odds are higher than if you open just one.

 

[DeletedUser24322]

But the odds of getting at least one somewhere in ALL the draws goes up as you make more draws. Yes, the odds of it being in the second chest don't change, but if you decide to open two chests, the odds are higher than if you open just one.

True, but if you think about it the probabilities are messed up. Hitting 3 Reno kits in a row is 1000:1 odds (or 1 in 1000 probability), yet hitting 3 SoKs in a row is 64:1 (or a probability of 1 in 64). So realistically the odds are way better to win the 3 SoKs (in a row) than the 3 Reno kits (as I did). Just seems like an awful funny coincidence that 3 "crappy" gifts came up.

 

[DeletedUser25273]

Doing the math to figure the odds isn't that hard, then you have to remember that even a 0.1% chance will happen once every 1000 times, and many people are playing so you EXPECT some of the long shots to happen (and self-reports will be somewhat selective of what people at least feel are long-shots)

 

[DeletedUser14171]

The problem Stevie is that you are mixing up two questions:

First, is this year's event worse than last years? I'd say yes. Others will disagree, it is a matter of opinion.

Second, is this year's event an illegal atrocity that makes the game unplayable? The answer to that is no, that is a matter of fact. (OK maybe the blue arrow gets close. But it's not illegal )

I think the blue arrow is illegal, immoral, socially degrading, has no sense of right or wrong, and it just might be an alien from Mars sent here to extract the natural resources from our planet.

 

[DeletedUser14171]

Doing the math to figure the odds isn't that hard, then you have to remember that even a 0.1% chance will happen once every 1000 times, and many people are playing so you EXPECT some of the long shots to happen (and self-reports will be somewhat selective of what people at least feel are long-shots)

There are thousands broke players exiting casinos that use this same mathematical logic

 

[DeletedUser8152]

There are thousands broke players exiting casinos that use this same mathematical logic

And for every thousand, there's about one who scored the long odds

 

[DeletedUser10789]

There are thousands broke players exiting casinos that use this same mathematical logic

LOL...Oh, so true.

Now is the time for Jaelis to make a POLL for the Forums and let us all have a voice in saying what we want too. I will say it again, a simple POLL "Do you like this years Easter Event better than Last Years, YES or NO". Simple and easy. If you want to put in a 3rd. option, put in "Sorry, I didn't play last year".

 

[DeletedUser8152]

Got a proposal up already, it will go to voting in 13 days.

 

[DeletedUser24322]

I think the blue arrow is illegal, immoral, socially degrading, has no sense of right or wrong, and it just might be an alien from Mars sent here to extract the natural resources from our planet.

I'd go with the alien.

 

[DeletedUser13838]

The odds of winning a Reno kit 3 times in a row is 1000:1 (odds are always listed this way). 10% chance 3 times in a row mathematically works out to the formula .1 x .1 x .1 = .001 or 1000:1. If I was talking outcome, the number would have been 0:3.

So "Dude"...you need go back to school.

Just to be pedantic, the probability is 1 in 1,000 but the odds are 999:1.

My own anecdotal experience: 1 40 egg chest = 1 blueprint, 1 70 egg chest = 1 observatory blueprint.

Of the prizes I wanted, SoKs and oases are right up there but I'm not willing to use diamonds on this event since the grand prize is so pointless. I'll hold off until the summer event and maybe there will be another age then. That said, I'm glad the event is not the same as it was last year. If I could change 2 things from last year's event: one would be to enable the hiding of eggs in the wilderness instead of decos and the other would be to get rid of the hiding action limit. The game is not a full time job.