Pericles the Lion
Well-Known Member
You may need a napkin to wipe the egg off of your face. Your analysis has a flaw. The Daily Challenge provides a chance for 1, 2 3, 4, or 5 parts.The probability, according to Inno's stated odds of getting 1, 2 or 3 fragments, is slightly over 10 complete Keys from the DC. Out of 100 chances, with the stated odds, you would get 165 fragments. Divided by 100 chances, that's 1.65 fragments per day. You'll get 31 chances at these fragments during the event (last day's DC usually doesn't have the fragments), meaning probability of just over 51 total fragments. Needing 5 fragments to complete a Key, that's only 10 Keys from the DC. To get 14 complete Keys, you would need 70 fragments, which would be an average of 2.258 per day. That's getting extremely lucky.
Playing to complete the Calendar on the cheap pretty much means ignoring the Daily Specials.The other thing about your strategy is that you have to totally ignore what the Daily Special is. Can't go after the Daily Special if the board doesn't have a Key, can you?
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