Algona
Well-Known Member
I have had 6 on days where I have not been able to do anything the prior day. INNO is clearly using the RNG to generate both the goods to be used and the number of goods. It doesnt matter what your attrition is at. I can have 4 goods of previous era when attrition is 1 or 50. And the next day have 6 goods of current era with 0, 3, 4, 10 or 20 attrition.
You're mixing terminology which is causing a fair amount of confusion.
Number of choices range form 4-6; more on that below. Number of Goods used for one choice is 1 at 0 attrition and goes up in documented steps as attrition increases.
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Random selection does not necessarily mean equal distribution.
Consider a d6 with the nymbers 1, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. The number rolled is still random, but the distribution is weighted such that 1 comes up twice as often.
Take a look at this table:.
Here are my stats since I changed my data recording process:
Number of items to choose Successful Total Win percent 4 504 544 92.6% 5 971 1254 77.4% 6 774 1387 55.8%
It's pretty easy to see that the number of choices is weighted. Is this a statistically meaningful sample size? Is the data rigorously recorded?
You can ask dontwannaname about his methodology. You can ask a statistician to give an estimate on accuracy based on the sample size.
Or you can collect data for yourself.
What do I think? ontwannaname has established a solid presence in the year they have been posting as knowlegeable and reasonable. No reason to not trust them, every reason to give them the full credence they are due.
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Point is that when you critique the RNG INNO shrugs and says, "No, it works fine." And they are right. Your problem is with the weighting of the distribution.
Which INNO may or may not change. I suspect they have accurate data on all players 'win' rates at various numbers of choices and very carefully picked the weighting for the results they want.
As with the RNG, everybody plays with the same distribution.
So while you may want it easier, as I suspect most players do, would that be good for the game?
Ask yourself why is INNO is choosing this particular weighting?
You may be on the right track, thinking that INNO is trying to soak up Goods. You might start trying to figure out why INNO is doing so. How does that help INNO make money or improve the game?
Or maybe it's to assure some desired balance point between fighting and negotiating? The recent change in attrition points towards that.
Maybe another reason or combination of reasons?
Rest assured that in the end it's to continue to make money, and INNO does that by making the game attractive to players for years. It's a formula that grossed them more then a Billion dollars, so it's safe to say they know what they are doing.
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