Negotiation

[RazorbackPirate]

I've always had a suspicion that the correct selection of goods for a negotiation is decided after turn 1. With the idea that the answer for turn 1 is predetermined by an algorithm that will say no matter what you choose the readout will be a preselected response of " wrong person / incorrect / correct / wrong person / wrong person " or whatever the ai would decide. And then at turn 2 it would take the remaining options and create a correct answer.
This would be effectively invisible to a player but could heavily weight the possibility of getting any negotiation correct by turn 3 and thus slightly encourage diamond usage.

Prove it. Gather the data, show Inno has their finger on the scale to screw the players.

Heavy accusations based on nothing.

 

[Expletive Deleted]

Prove it. Gather the data, show Inno has their finger on the scale to screw the players.

Heavy accusations based on nothing.

I said I have a suspicion. Not making accusations. And I'm not looking to prove anything. But there is no true random in any programming, and inno is a business like any other, so everything by design is made to make them money and diamonds are how that's done. If inno doesn't have a finger on the scale, they're really bad at business. Casinos use multiple decks in blackjack, and programs that pay out on specifically timed jackpots. It's not new or different.

 

[DeletedUser]

I said I have a suspicion. Not making accusations. And I'm not looking to prove anything. But there is no true random in any programming, and inno is a business like any other, so everything by design is made to make them money and diamonds are how that's done. If inno doesn't have a finger on the scale, they're really bad at business. Casinos use multiple decks in blackjack, and programs that pay out on specifically timed jackpots. It's not new or different.

Jackpots are over time not specifically timed. Eg a guaranteed 94.3% return pays 120 after 1000$ is put in in 1 hour. 5000$ is then put in in the next hour so a complete recalculation needs to be done. The guarantee is over a 1 month period but the input (money bet is never known in advance).

 

[RazorbackPirate]

I said I have a suspicion. Not making accusations. And I'm not looking to prove anything. But there is no true random in any programming, and inno is a business like any other, so everything by design is made to make them money and diamonds are how that's done. If inno doesn't have a finger on the scale, they're really bad at business. Casinos use multiple decks in blackjack, and programs that pay out on specifically timed jackpots. It's not new or different.

The casino doesn't win at Blackjack because they use multiple decks. Casinos use multiple decks to make it harder for players to count cards. Casinos win because of statistics. The house doesn't care who wins or loses, in the aggregate, they'll pull in 2% of every dollar wagered. All day, every day. And Blackjack has the lowest house % of any Casino game.

You can absolutely write a program to be truly random. Any 1st year programmer can do it. 12 choices of goods, 5 slots, you assign each good a 5/12th change of being correct. Right at the start. No cheating necessary. Negotiations are based on a board game called Mastermind. All Inno did expand the number of items and options to choose from. Any 2nd year Math major would be able to break down the full probabilities of the game and show you that Inno doesn't need to put their finger on the scale. Like casinos, they can run a complete honest game knowing that statistically, there is a low probability of solving the most complex negotiations with 4 turns. No need to cheat, the game is inherently in their favor.

I guess its a fitting commentary on the world today that your expectation of really good business are companies that have their finger on the scale. I'm old enough to remember when that was called cheating the customer and fraud. But hey, we live in clown world. Everyone cheats to win, and we're all just expected to ignore it.

Hope we never cross paths in business in RL, I expect I'd be shafted. That's an old school term too.

 

[wolfhoundtoo]

I said I have a suspicion. Not making accusations. And I'm not looking to prove anything. But there is no true random in any programming, and inno is a business like any other, so everything by design is made to make them money and diamonds are how that's done. If inno doesn't have a finger on the scale, they're really bad at business. Casinos use multiple decks in blackjack, and programs that pay out on specifically timed jackpots. It's not new or different.

You posted here making it an accusation.

And as posted above you have a clear misunderstanding of how casinos work to make money. It's all about the design of the game to set it up in such way that the 'house' never loses. And you'd be incorrect that your 'suspicion' couldn't be proven based on the start point you gave would be ridiculous easy to track and notice by anyone actually noting down the results of their negotiations. In other words it would be bad business for Inno to do what you 'suspect'.

 

[BigBrian614]

Prove it. Gather the data, show Inno has their finger on the scale to screw the players.

Heavy accusations based on nothing.

I agree 100% with the end game to get you to spend diamonds. Of course there is no way to prove it. I won't even attempt a 6 goods negotiation anymore. In 3 years, I got it on 3 turns less than a handful of times.

 

[BigBrian614]

also, there are a ton of YouTube videos that have strategies in negotiations, but fighting is an option.

I agree, I never negotiate in GE and only the first 5 in BG (because it is only 1 good per guess) I rarely even get the 5 in because If I get a 6 good negotiation, I don't even bother trying and go straight to fighting.

 

[MJ Artisan of War]

I always negotiate the first two in GE because it only requires coins and supplies.
Then the next 62 are auto-battle.

 

[Fishercat.]

I've always had a suspicion that the correct selection of goods for a negotiation is decided after turn 1.

I have once or twice (in about a year of playing, negotiation only) gotten a five-goods negotiation right on the first guess.

 

[wolfhoundtoo]

Well 5 spots and 5 goods so you have a 20% chance of picking the right good for each spot the 1st time you do it (of course that's FIVE twenty percentage chances which comes out to a lot less than a 20% chance of getting it right the 1st time). Which is way less than a 1% chance if I did the math right so you shouldn't be hitting it very much that way.

Fight if you don't like negotiating or simply don't understand it (which frequently is the same thing).

 

[Ebeondi Asi]

-

 

[Savvy187]

It's odds based, and the odds favor the house. If you need more than 3 different goods after the first turn, quit and start over.

 

[BigBrian614]

I said I have a suspicion. Not making accusations. And I'm not looking to prove anything. But there is no true random in any programming, and inno is a business like any other, so everything by design is made to make them money and diamonds are how that's done. If inno doesn't have a finger on the scale, they're really bad at business. Casinos use multiple decks in blackjack, and programs that pay out on specifically timed jackpots. It's not new or different.

I agree. I would bet quit a bit of money that the goods move around as you guess. I mean they are not physically there anyway just a computer program.

 

[RazorbackPirate]

I agree. I would bet quit a bit of money that the goods move around as you guess. I mean they are not physically there anyway just a computer program.

Prove it. Collect the data, do the math, prove it.

There is no reason for Inno to cheat. The game statistically is in their favor. Just like a Casino. No need to cheat. Plenty of crappy players with a game heavily in their favor.

You people are example A.

 

[Algona]

I would bet quit a bit of money that the goods move around as you guess.

INNO has no need to cheat.

Between the design of negotiations, people who can't figure out optimum negotiation strategy, and most important, the only reason people buy Diamonds to begin with, impatience, there are always players who will dump Diamonds into negotiations.

The downside of INNO getting caught doing such a cheat is huge: Coiners confidence shaken and much worse, the EU frowns heavily on software companies doing such things.

Nevermind the cheat being demonstrated mathematically by the player base, that isn't proof positive.

Nor is it proof positive that it's crazy to cheat for 10 Diamonds when INNO gives hundreds of free Diamonds to thousands of competent players every week.

All it would take to ruin INNO is one disgruntled dev deciding to blow the whistle or blackmail INNO.

But I'm glad you posted, you brought up something I missed earlier:

so everything by design is made to make them money and diamonds are how that's done

Well, that ain't quite right.

Seems that INNO spent a part of their effort over the years marketing themselves to investors based on number of players, time spent in games, and number of clicks as well as their revenue, ie, the sale of Diamonds.

This worked well for the owners of INNO. The current majority stockholder bought a fifth of the company in 2016, upped it to 51% in 2017 and late last year upped it to 68%. That last purchase was for over 100M Euros giving a net value for INNO of abour 3/4 Billion USD.

From the CEO of the parent company:

“Through the creation of a new joint gaming group together with InnoGames’ founders, InnoGames’ best-in-class expertise in user acquisition, live operations and business intelligence strategies can now benefit all of MTG’s gaming vertical companies, as well as future new acquisitions.”

 

[plinker2]

Not bragging, just truthful. I hardly EVER have to use diamonds on negotiations. Look at who got what and when.

 

[Expletive Deleted]

This isnt an accusation of cheating on INNOs part. Just questioning how the half of the game we dont see is played. There is nothing stating when the correct goods are decided upon.

Let me ask it this way: When do you believe the correct goods are decided? Is it when you open the negotiation menu? Before that? Have they decided what the output should be for the final castle of tier 4 before its unlocked? When it is unlocked? When I finish tier 3?

The AI /COULD/ be set to randomly select one of the 3 outcomes ( wrong / wrong person / correct ) at every turn. So long as it doesn't contradict itself then there is no cheating.

 

[RazorbackPirate]

This isnt an accusation of cheating on INNOs part. Just questioning how the half of the game we dont see is played. There is nothing stating when the correct goods are decided upon.

Stop. Just stop. You're first theory was wrong, this theory is wrong, you're wrong. 100% wrong. Stop with the conjecture. Prove it.

Let me ask it this way: When do you believe the correct goods are decided? Is it when you open the negotiation menu? Before that? Have they decided what the output should be for the final castle of tier 4 before its unlocked? When it is unlocked? When I finish tier 3?

The answers to all of this exists online to be found. Find it. Stop using your complete ignorance about any of this to imply Inno cheats because you don't know. Oh wait, that would require work. Like proving your original theory.

The AI /COULD/ be set to randomly select one of the 3 outcomes ( wrong / wrong person / correct ) at every turn. So long as it doesn't contradict itself then there is no cheating.

Gotta get my boots. The crap you're slinging is getting mighty deep. If you represent the average player, it's no wonder Inno makes so much money.

 

[Algona]

The AI /COULD/ be set to randomly select one of the 3 outcomes ( wrong / wrong person / correct ) at every turn. So long as it doesn't contradict itself then there is no cheating.

What would be the benefit to anyone of your suggested alternative? Don't answer until you read all this post.

You mean the code, right? AI far exceeds the need here:

Set the answer at the start, then as guesses come in a quick check to evaluate the answers and a quick calculation for the signals given to the player. That has to be done no matter what other process is done as part of negotiations and is all that needs to be done to enable an elegant algo(na)rhythm that takes care of the server side of negotiations no matter the level of complexity.

Savvy the first principle of coding, KISS? Keep that in mind.

Your suggestion requires the need for additional complex coding (solving a negotiation is a lot more difficult code wise then setting up a negotiation) and server overhead of solving and resolving and reresolving the hundreds (thousands?) of negotiations going on at any one time.

Anyone paying attention knows that INNO occasionally has problems maintaining code.

I'm pretty sure INNO knows that as well.

Why add the massive overhead in both designing and the server load from running the constant recalculating of the correct answers for thousands of simultaneous negotiations? KISS applies in spades here.

Since it was a kinda long post, I'll ask again:

What would be the benefit to anyone of your suggested alternative?

 

[Expletive Deleted]

Stop. Just stop. You're first theory was wrong, this theory is wrong, you're wrong. 100% wrong. Stop with the conjecture. Prove it.

The answers to all of this exists online to be found. Find it. Stop using your complete ignorance about any of this to imply Inno cheats because you don't know. Oh wait, that would require work. Like proving your original theory.

Gotta get my boots. The crap you're slinging is getting mighty deep. If you represent the average player, it's no wonder Inno makes so much money.

I once again am failing to see what you interpret in this as inno cheating. I'm allowed to speculate on anything I choose. I may be wrong, that's entirely possible. It's happened in the past and will happen again. I'm not above that possibility.

But again. I ask. The correct answer is selected when? You say at the start. At the start of what? Does this mean the solution for GE64 is decided the second that GE opens this week? Or when I start tier 4 or when I open the negotiating menu?

I believe it may be when I first actually interact with the puzzle by playing the first turn and activating the game. That is all.

And if I'm the representation of the average player inno would make no money cause I havent spent anything on this game I have farm towns with over 600 total wells built so my needs are covered.

What would be the benefit to anyone of your suggested alternative? Don't answer until you read all this post.

You mean the code, right? AI far exceeds the need here:

Set the answer at the start, then as guesses come in a quick check to evaluate the answers and a quick calculation for the signals given to the player. That has to be done no matter what other process is done as part of negotiations and is all that needs to be done to enable an elegant algo(na)rhythm that takes care of the server side of negotiations no matter the level of complexity.

Savvy the first principle of coding, KISS? Keep that in mind.

Your suggestion requires the need for additional complex coding (solving a negotiation is a lot more difficult code wise then setting up a negotiation) and server overhead of solving and resolving and reresolving the hundreds (thousands?) of negotiations going on at any one time.

Anyone paying attention knows that INNO occasionally has problems maintaining code.

I'm pretty sure INNO knows that as well.

Why add the massive overhead in both designing and the server load from running the constant recalculating of the correct answers for thousands of simultaneous negotiations? KISS applies in spades here.

Since it was a kinda long post, I'll ask again:

What would be the benefit to anyone of your suggested alternative?

Keep It Simple Stupid is what this would be? What's easier. Having thousands of players puzzle outcomes predecided and wasting server memory waiting to be interacted with when less than half of players will end up negotiating most if any interactions? Or making a simple bot that will spit out one of three potential outcomes based on a RNG & the server clock that waits for you to activate it?

And again I want to clarify because I dont think it's being picked up on by many of you.
THIS IS IN NO WAY CHEATING!