T.farm level up discussion

[voidsource]

I've had discussions about this before, about the odds of winning an upgrade for my t.farms, and even though they have said it is x amount of percentage, I found that now more than ever, to be balogne.

I have now entered the 13th or 14th week straight where I have not gotten a single upgrade. 7 or 6 of the last weeks have ALL been 35 goods as a reward. It hasn't been anything else and I already have received 7 upgrades since they introduce the upgrade itself into the game.

But ever since that last win, and I've been doing GE religiously (maybe missed a week or so, due to irl stuff ), I've been only able to show 7 of them?! Has the game all of the sudden stopped given them out to me? Is there a formula that prevents players from obtaining more than x amount per x time period? Why can't the Formula be that after x amount of time without winning one ( and recognizing my weekly attempts) that it should be allowed to break it's own non winning streak? After all there seems to be no issue with players not winning for 13 or 14 weeks but somehow there's an issue if u've won 2 weeks in a row ( the most in a row I've ever won that I can recall).

Idk exactly what the devs code is for this but it really should change to include scenarios as this. Should keep a track of a losing streak as much as a winning streak so that after x amount of time and attempts of not winning, it should break the losing streak that just seems like a curse and to some extent an insult by receiving the same prize in the last ~50%+ of losing Streak.

On top of that it would not be a bad idea to have a spinning wheel or some other prize visualizer indicating what exactly is going on with the reward. Not sure myself how that would work but I feel, given the situation I'm in and experienced, it just feels like all odds are not what they say they are.

Again, I've been doing GE since I've started this game. Rarely miss any week. I hope this streak does give devs and insight about some things and hope that they do implement new code into the game recognizing situations. Bc so far it feels like a punishment for t.farm farmers.

 

[Agent327]

Again, I've been doing GE since I've started this game. Rarely miss any week. I hope this streak does give devs and insight about some things and hope that they do implement new code into the game recognizing situations. Bc so far it feels like a punishment for t.farm farmers.

Idle hope. Devs do not read here and even if they would they would not likely make changes based on the experience of one user. You have a 50% chance at getting 35 goods and only 25% chance of getting a TF upgrade kit. Your sample of 7 weeks is way to small to come to any conclusions.

 

[voidsource]

Idle hope. Devs do not read here and even if they would they would not likely make changes based on the experience of one user. You have a 50% chance at getting 35 goods and only 25% chance of getting a TF upgrade kit. Your sample of 7 weeks is way to small to come to any conclusions.

You are mistaken. I said that I've been doing GE since I've started this game. On the scenario of the upgrades I've been doing them weekly (with one or 2 weeks missed due to real life) but still been doing them since they made their introduction. And since my last upgrade win it has been 13 or 14 weeks since I've won any upgrade. Out of those 13/14 weeks 7 or 6 of those have been 35 goods. So it hasn't been 7 weeks as a sample. It has been 13/14 weeks without any win of the upgrades ( since it's last win ).

 

[RazorbackPirate]

You are mistaken. I said that I've been doing GE since I've started this game. On the scenario of the upgrades I've been doing them weekly (with one or 2 weeks missed due to real life) but still been doing them since they made their introduction. And since my last upgrade win it has been 13 or 14 weeks since I've won any upgrade. Out of those 13/14 weeks 7 or 6 of those have been 35 goods. So it hasn't been 7 weeks as a sample. It has been 13/14 weeks without any win of the upgrades ( since it's last win ).

It doesn't matter how long you've been doing GE, it only matters that you've been doing GE since TF upgrades were first introduced. How long has that been? In that time how many TF upgrades have you received? Also, as @Agent327 says, your data sample is way too small. After thousands of weeks writing down everything, you can then come to an accurate conclusion whether the stated %s are baloney or not. Feel free to do the work needed to prove your theory, but you may want to take note of the fact that every player that's attempted to prove the RNG is flawed has come up empty. Every single time.

Until then, good theory, now prove it. Hundreds of weeks of data at minimum, written down, kept, shared here.

 

[Tony 85 the Generous]

It doesn't matter how long you've been doing GE, it only matters that you've been doing GE since TF upgrades were first introduced. How long has that been? In that time how many TF upgrades have you received?

How long have they been available, I don't know. Though someone may recall (or desire to search the update posts)

Are TF upgrades only available through GE or also through the ToR. If the former, I have 3 and complete GE4 weekly. I am only stating facts. You are welcome to figure the math. I don't care for TF or their upgrades (too big for too little, AD fodder IMO).

 

[Agent327]

You are mistaken. I said that I've been doing GE since I've started this game. On the scenario of the upgrades I've been doing them weekly (with one or 2 weeks missed due to real life) but still been doing them since they made their introduction. And since my last upgrade win it has been 13 or 14 weeks since I've won any upgrade. Out of those 13/14 weeks 7 or 6 of those have been 35 goods. So it hasn't been 7 weeks as a sample. It has been 13/14 weeks without any win of the upgrades ( since it's last win ).

One player for 13/14 weeks is no sample at all. It is a player with bad luck complaining.

How long have they been available, I don't know.

Since July 20th.

 

[voidsource]

It doesn't matter how long you've been doing GE, it only matters that you've been doing GE since TF upgrades were first introduced. How long has that been? In that time how many TF upgrades have you received? Also, as @Agent327 says, your data sample is way too small. After thousands of weeks writing down everything, you can then come to an accurate conclusion whether the stated %s are baloney or not. Feel free to do the work needed to prove your theory, but you may want to take note of the fact that every player that's attempted to prove the RNG is flawed has come up empty. Every single time.

Until then, good theory, now prove it. Hundreds of weeks of data at minimum, written down, kept, shared here.

As u have said it only matters since the upgrade introduction which has been since July of last year. So how exactly did u come up with thousands of weeks on an item that has only been around 8 months which is around 32 weeks?

Aside from that as I mentioned, and both seem to somehow not understand the time period, it has been 13/14 weeks since my last win. That's 3 months and a week - 3 months and a half month since any upgrade win.

Out of that time period alone it has been 6 or 7 weeks ( that's 1.5 months/1.75 months ) where the prize has been only 35 goods.

My post is meant to bring to light a situation that does not seem to end hence why suggested a reasonable change to the code after a long losing streak. Especially given that u only have one attempt per week at the topic reward.

 

[voidsource]

How long have they been available, I don't know. Though someone may recall (or desire to search the update posts)

Are TF upgrades only available through GE or also through the ToR. If the former, I have 3 and complete GE4 weekly. I am only stating facts. You are welcome to figure the math. I don't care for TF or their upgrades (too big for too little, AD fodder IMO).

The upgrade itself has been introduced to the game since July 2020. Roughly 8 months now. They are only offered once in level 4 ge, encounter 62.

 

[RazorbackPirate]

As u have said it only matters since the upgrade introduction which has been since July of last year. So how exactly did u come up with thousands of weeks on an item that has only been around 8 months which is around 32 weeks?

I came up with thousands, because that's how many data samples are needed, at minimum to prove your point that the RNG is flawed. As you say, at most, had you been writing it down, you'd only have 32 data samples. Far too few to support the theory you're putting forth. Come back in a few years and we'll talk.

Or get everyone you know on your world to keep their own data, then compile everyone together weekly. Get 100 people to do it and you'll have definitive results in about 20 weeks.

Aside from that as I mentioned, and both seem to somehow not understand the time period, it has been 13/14 weeks since my last win. That's 3 months and a week - 3 months and a half month since any upgrade win.

And what we've both been saying and you don't seem to understand is your personal experience is irrelevant. Unless and until you have sufficient data to prove the RNG is flawed, you've just had a bad streak. Which means sooner or later, you'll have a good streak. Something I notice no one ever comes here to complain a flawed RNG is responsible for.

Out of that time period alone it has been 6 or 7 weeks ( that's 1.5 months/1.75 months ) where the prize has been only 35 goods..

Consistent with what one would expect with a 50% chance of winning them. The RNG is like tossing an 8 sided dice. 4 of the sides have goods, 2 of the sides have a TF upgrade, and 2 sides a shrink kit. I don't see it as aberrational in the least that you could throw such a dice and get goods 6 or 7 times in a row.

My post is meant to bring to light a situation that does not seem to end hence why suggested a reasonable change to the code after a long losing streak. Especially given that u only have one attempt per week at the topic reward.

There is nothing wrong with the code. Each time you collect from that encounter you have a 25% chance of getting a TF upgrade. That you don't like the % is not the discussion at hand. You're accusing Inno of publishing fraudulent %s. You think that's the case, or the code is flawed, prove it. It's not hard to do, just get the data samples. Thousands of them.

Beyond that, I hope your dry streak ends soon. In the meantime, there's nothing wrong with the system and the burden of proof is on you.

 

[Algona]

I've had discussions about this before

And you were told at that time:

If you do believe Inno is cheating, then you need some hard data to prove such an accusation.

Instead of recording data for the last five months, you're reporting what you remember. We'll ignore that your memory is not fully accurate.

So let's look at what you remember.

...since my last upgrade win it has been 13 or 14 weeks since I've won any upgrade. Out of those 13/14 weeks 7 or 6 of those have been 35 goods. So it hasn't been 7 weeks as a sample. It has been 13/14 weeks without any win of the upgrades ( since it's last win ).

A quick question. If you haven;t sold them, how many FoY upgrades do you have deployed or in Inventory?

There have been 22 GEs since you posted last September.

You state you haven't won any TF Upgrades in the last 13/14 GEs. How many TF Ipgrades did you win in the 9/8 GEs before that?

The chance of going 13 weeks without a TF Upgrade is .75^13 = .024 = 2.4% = 1 in 42.

The chance of going 14 weeks without a TF Upgrade is .75^14 = .018 = 1.8% = 1 in 56.

Bad luck? Yup.

Proof there is something wrong? Nope.

I understand your frustration, you might want to do some real analysis.

As noted, if you want to prove a point here, you need to record a significant amount of data.

You already let 5 months slip by, so maybe start recording now?

Vger suggested one way how to shorten the time needed for data collection. You'll have to follow the link to read it.

The other method and much more reliable? Build a half dozen cities up to the point they can do GE 64 and then record (repeat record the fine data!) data from all 7 cities for 30 weeks. That will give you about 200 data points, not enough for definitive analysis, but enough to draw a preliminary conclusion.

Prolly won't take much more then a year and will provide you a lot of Diamonds and results that while not definitive would be worth discussing.

Good luck!

 

[voidsource]

Making a suggestion

I came up with thousands, because that's how many data samples are needed, at minimum to prove your point that the RNG is flawed. As you say, at most, had you been writing it down, you'd only have 32 data samples. Far too few to support the theory you're putting forth. Come back in a few years and we'll talk.

Or get everyone you know on your world to keep their own data, then compile everyone together weekly. Get 100 people to do it and you'll have definitive results in about 20 weeks.

And what we've both been saying and you don't seem to understand is your personal experience is irrelevant. Unless and until you have sufficient data to prove the RNG is flawed, you've just had a bad streak. Which means sooner or later, you'll have a good streak. Something I notice no one ever comes here to complain a flawed RNG is responsible for.

Consistent with what one would expect with a 50% chance of winning them. The RNG is like tossing an 8 sided dice. 4 of the sides have goods, 2 of the sides have a TF upgrade, and 2 sides a shrink kit. I don't see it as aberrational in the least that you could throw such a dice and get goods 6 or 7 times in a row.

There is nothing wrong with the code. Each time you collect from that encounter you have a 25% chance of getting a TF upgrade. That you don't like the % is not the discussion at hand. You're accusing Inno of publishing fraudulent %s. You think that's the case, or the code is flawed, prove it. It's not hard to do, just get the data samples. Thousands of them.

Beyond that, I hope your dry streak ends soon. In the meantime, there's nothing wrong with the system and the burden of proof is on you.

Making a suggestion based on experience is what this forum is about. Whether it is to ur liking is another topic but it doesn't mean it has to be dismissive just because u feel it's not worth your time. It definitely is a bad streak and I do wish it ends.

Everyones experience varies and surely when u said thousands i can almost with certainty say u, yourself don't have that data. Nor the data was released by the devs. It also doesn't take into account players ownership of t.farm upgrades to see if there's a pattern with players whom are heavy with t.farms vs those who have less of in their city. And to account for how many if them have it at level 2. Which would certainly be interesting, if there's any similarities.


I've notice that at the start the reward was given out more but as more were level up in the city they then started to be more scarce. Reaching out to this point. I've myself asked a few friends here and there about their own experiences and they have been getting them. As I observe their city i realized they have one or two farms at level 2 with maybe one or two more farms at level 1. No greater than 5 overall. I have not met another player yet in this world (G) Who has over 25 farms to see what their city shows and to ask them about their experience. Because then I can better understand how the game is treating players with larger ownership and placements.

 

[DeletedUser]

I have 4 Lvl 2 in storage and 2 lvl 1 in storage and 4 lvl 2 upgrades in storage. It's just luck of the draw.

TF2 is not particularly efficient except for supplies. I tore mine up and only plant them for emergency supplies or goods

 

[voidsource]

Instead of recording data for the last five months, you're reporting what you remember. We'll ignore that your memory is not fully accurate.

I've been more or less keeping track of my winnings. Since July of last year when they were introduced. I've had 7 wins overall, which isn't bad in itself given the time period of the last 7th one obtained. In the beginning, on average, It seemed like I was getting a win every 3rd week.

Ever since then it hasn't changed. Yeah it's a bad luck but starting several cities and collecting over 25 farms per city is no easy task. Seems like a job/chore. My reasoning to come on inno servers and play their games is to enjoy some gaming time. I definitely am not looking to make this a job or feel like a chore/obligation.

As I posted in the other reply, that data between less/more ownership of farms (20+ farms) is not something I believe is at hand and doubt it is something considered nor do we know if that actually is something that may or may not affect the rewards outcome. My reasoning for that is based on a few friends whom I've asked about their experience with farm upgrades and to which they seem to get them more but don't bother to place them in the city. Most of them have 5 or less farms on average. With about half of those being level 2. Idk if that's something to consider tbh.

As far as foy upgrades and the other upgrade, which currently escapes me, I've been getting more of those than farm upgrades. I don't have them in my city bc I'm not interested in foy or the others so I tend to sell them in the a.shop.

 

[voidsource]

I have 4 Lvl 4 in storage and 2 lvl 1 in storage and 4 lvl 2 upgrades in storage. It's just luck of the draw.

TF2 is not particularly efficient except for supplies. I tore mine up and only plant them for emergency supplies or goods

Yeah not everyone is keen on having them on their city bc of footprint. My other friends also mentioned they have a few in inventory or that they sold them bc they don't see any good use for them. I decided that 28 in my city is where I want to draw the line for now. At least till I've upgraded them all. Then afterwards I'll see if I want to add any more. I mostly use them for fps collection.

 

[icarusethan]

we talking about a building can give you 0.4 Fps per tile and 2 goods per tile per day if you run 3 8 hour circles, even with the upgrade. and we talking about putting this building all over the cities.

i wish all my enemy guilds' players play like that.

 

[DeletedUser]

we talking about a building can give you 0.4 Fps per tile and 2 goods per tile per day if you run 3 8 hour circles, even with the upgrade. and we talking about putting this building all over the cities.

i wish all my enemy guilds' players play like that.

Exactly , Even the SoK2 isn't all that good with .5 FPS / day / Square. I sold all my Soks and Sacreds as a well. I put down combat specific special buildings and make up the FP in GbG

 

[voidsource]

Exactly , Even the SoK2 isn't all that good with .5 FPS / day / Square. I sold all my Soks and Sacreds as a well. I put down combat specific special buildings and make up the FP in GbG

I'm an fps farmer, for the time being, and so having these bad boys definitely helps with fps production. My goal is to reach 1k fps from daily collection without the use of bg, or gbg, etc...so far I'm at 867. With my bg sometimes I get 4 doubles or 3 on average. My luckiest streak on that was that all my farms (level 2) were double...what a day it was. My worst streak, i has not a single thing doubled. So I am very keen on getting more farm upgrades.

 

[icarusethan]

I'm an fps farmer, for the time being,

what that even means, you don't fight GBG at all?

 

[RazorbackPirate]

Making a suggestion based on experience is what this forum is about. Whether it is to ur liking is another topic but it doesn't mean it has to be dismissive just because u feel it's not worth your time.

Don't put words in my mouth. I said nothing of the sort. I have said, and will continue to say that I think you're wrong. I'm also telling you how easily you can prove your supposition. You simply refuse to.

It definitely is a bad streak and I do wish it ends.

You've stablished that. What you've not established is that the RNG is faulty. To do that you need data, data you don't have and don't seem inclined to get.

Everyones experience varies and surely when u said thousands i can almost with certainty say u, yourself don't have that data. Nor the data was released by the devs. It also doesn't take into account players ownership of t.farm upgrades to see if there's a pattern with players whom are heavy with t.farms vs those who have less of in their city. And to account for how many if them have it at level 2. Which would certainly be interesting, if there's any similarities.

You're right, I don't have the data, because I'm not the one trying to prove Inno lies in their numbers. Inno did release the data, they've published the % on the encounter. You're making the accusation Inno is lying with that number, fine. Now prove it. Thousands of lines of data, recorded and shared here.

I've notice that at the start the reward was given out more but as more were level up in the city they then started to be more scarce. Reaching out to this point. I've myself asked a few friends here and there about their own experiences and they have been getting them. As I observe their city i realized they have one or two farms at level 2 with maybe one or two more farms at level 1. No greater than 5 overall. I have not met another player yet in this world (G) Who has over 25 farms to see what their city shows and to ask them about their experience. Because then I can better understand how the game is treating players with larger ownership and placements.

Wow, these are some wild accusations. If only there were a way to 100%, unequivocally prove it. Oh wait, there is. Do it.

BTW - What did support say when you reported this?

For what it's worth, I have 3 deployed and 4 in storage. Don't think I've sold any. That's 7 in 32 weeks, 25% would be 8. Seems to be working fine.

 

[voidsource]

what that even means, you don't fight GBG at all?

It means my gameplay style is primarily focused on building fps. Either by selling goods, gbg, fighting, sniping, or investing heavily of fps buildings and great buildings. In my case, i am not heavily involved in gbg but I do participate every season. Really only involved to get the upgrades for the building that gives me fps and it's upgrades. I don't sell goods and I don't snipe as much as I should and definitely almost never fight neighbors unless a quest requires it or so.


But my fps earnings come from my tfarms and great buildings along with special event buildings or special production buildings like sunken treasure, cider mills, the Japanese bridge, piazza plaza, barn yard set....and so forth... I've attached some screenshots of my city bc I'm currently on the go. But as u can see I really don't have any military production buildings. So fighting isn't my priority.