The 2018 Hot (Cold) Stove of Major League Baseball

[DeletedUser33003]

Thanks @gutmeister !

After my hockey playing days were over, I needed to follow something else more closely. There's a college team in my area trying to get me to be an assistant coach, but I feel my love affair with the puck is over at this point. Maybe I'll have an epiphany later. I was already a baseball fan, so I just hunkered down more.

Where do you think Darvish lands after all? Since Arrieta seemed intent on going back to Baltimore, I figured the most logical signing for us (Cubs) was Darv. But maybe they feel one Jon Lester is enough.

 

[DeletedUser]

lol what a "grumpy old white guy" thing to say. Why are they overpaid? Because rich owners are so stupid that they want to waste money on players who don't deserve it?

"Grumpy old white guy"? Well, I can't argue with 3/4 of those words. And maybe it's because I'm old enough to remember sports (and a lot of other things) before huge money entered the picture. When companies spent a reasonable amount on advertising. Now they spend millions, if not billions, just to put their name on a stadium. Advertising dollars artificially inflate the worth of what athletes do. Combine that with a lowered standard of excellence caused by overexpansion in every major sport, and you have journeyman infielders commanding tens of millions of dollars, sometimes just to sit on the bench. So, yeah, I guess grumpy fits, too.

 

[Graviton]

If I'm not mistaken, this is only on the league's national TV contracts, not the individual teams' networks. And that is a huge difference, and why the Yankees, Cubs, etc can dominate the free agent spending.

They also split everything from MLB's online presence.

That's funny because I think the salaries are out of hand in MLB ...

But you're not signing the checks. That was my earlier point: a player is worth whatever the market will bear, and right now league-average guys are getting a few million a year. But one of the reasons for this thread is the dearth of free agent signings. That seems to me to be a market-driven response to your concern of increasing salaries. GMs and front offices are becoming stat-wise and as a result, relatively frugal.

On the other hand I wonder how much of this cold stove is due to new-found economic acumen and how much is due to teams eyeing the monster FA class that forms after this season: Harper, Machado, Kershaw, Donaldson...if you don't like the top salaries now, just wait.

I do strongly believe we're heading for another strike, and I do realize people feel players are overpaid, but consider the magnitude with which these franchises accrue money.

Exactly. MLB generated $10 billion in 2017. The players as a unit get about half of that, I believe. Sounds fair to me. Gotta remember that value is a relative term.

I agree that I think we're heading for a strike, and I think the MLBPA will fire Tony Clark and find a new chief. They've suddenly awakened to a de facto salary cap and the Big Boys ain't gettin' paid.

 

[DeletedUser33003]

At this rate, Arrieta, Darvish, Martinez, and Hosmer are going to have to sign in Japan, just to keep fresh for next year.

I feel bad for Hosmer especially. He just a career year, in his 'peak' year, on a struggling team. He did play all 162 games, and that means he literally had 18 days in 180 days, and the math says he'll be injury prone in 2018. However, looking at what he's done over his career, that typical result shouldn't reply. For one, the numbers he did put up are not far outside of what he's done before, and he's still young. A five year deal for him shouldn't be so difficult for a GM to comprehend. He's at a good age to produce, his resume says he will, whether he has padding, or he is the padding. Of those four, his unsigned status is really the biggest gap of them all.

But don't take my word for it, look what Kenley Jansen said today: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/01/kenley-jansen-mlb-rumors-strike.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MlbTradeRumors+%28MLB+Trade+Rumors%29

 

[DeletedUser]

At this rate, Arrieta, Darvish, Martinez, and Hosmer are going to have to sign in Japan, just to keep fresh for next year.

I feel bad for Hosmer especially. He just a career year, in his 'peak' year, on a struggling team. He did play all 162 games, and that means he literally had 18 days in 180 days, and the math says he'll be injury prone in 2018. However, looking at what he's done over his career, that typical result shouldn't reply. For one, the numbers he did put up are not far outside of what he's done before, and he's still young. A five year deal for him shouldn't be so difficult for a GM to comprehend. He's at a good age to produce, his resume says he will, whether he has padding, or he is the padding. Of those four, his unsigned status is really the biggest gap of them all.

But don't take my word for it, look what Kenley Jansen said today: https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/01/kenley-jansen-mlb-rumors-strike.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+MlbTradeRumors+%28MLB+Trade+Rumors%29

Being a KC native, I have maybe a little better perspective on his performance this past year. At the plate, he started slowly and finished slowly, but had a really good middle of the season. The early year struggles (of the whole team, really) could be attributed to the untimely death of his teammate, Yordano Ventura. That loss hit the entire KC area hard. The rest of the league may have had problems with Ventura, but we loved him. Where Hosmer's value to the team really shone all year long was in his play at first base. He made the other 3 members of the infield look better than they are defensively, saving error after error with his reach and soft hands. His bat, while not bad, could be replaced. His defense would be a harder hole to fill. And maybe that's what's holding up his free agency. Offense is much gaudier than defense, and his offense really doesn't stand out that much.

 

[DeletedUser33003]

See, I couldn't even speak to his defense, I know he was solid at the position, I didn't realize how much he commanded the entire corner. Do you think the Royals will re-sign him?

 

[DeletedUser]

See, I couldn't even speak to his defense, I know he was solid at the position, I didn't realize how much he commanded the entire corner. Do you think the Royals will re-sign him?

I have had my fingers crossed since the season ended.

 

[Freshmeboy]

I wonder how much metrics plays into all this...baseball has always been about numbers and perhaps that 1 or 2 wins over replacement isn't worth an extra 10 mill a year for a team needing just a couple pieces of the puzzle which would be the playoff ready major market teams. Why spend big bucks when you will win the division by 10 games...? Or lose by 20...?

 

[DeletedUser33003]

I think baseball is a numbers game in the fact that we can analyze it through a variety of numbers.

"Baseball fans are junkies, and their heroin is the statistic." Robert S. Weider

"A baseball fan has the digestive apparatus of a billy goat. He can, and does, devour any set of statistics with insatiable appetite and then nuzzles hungrily for more." Arthur Daley

"Baseball is probably the world's best documented sport." Ford C. Frick

These quotes say it all, don't they? Part of our problem in being attached to the game is how much we look at that statistics. Yes, statistics do fare out a run-producing player, versus a potential run-producing player, versus your over-the-hill cousin.

What those statistics rarely ever discuss, is the nuance of how it got there. While movies are not good source material, there is a line from Bull Durham that absolutely captures some of the absurdity in statistical analysis: "Know what the difference between hitting .250 and .300 is? It's 25 hits." And it's absolutely correct!

We forget the the proper value of statistics: As an example, I'm uber-critical of the Cubs having signed Jason Heyward for 21.5 million a year, when they did. He's a defensive dynamo, who literally covers the entire right half of the outfield, which is pop-fly central for most right-handers. Placing him there on any team makes total sense. But, his defense, as great as it is, is not worth 21.5 million alone, all can agree on that point. The other part that made him valuable, and made the cost worth it, is that he signed on at age 25, had gone through highs and lows as a batter in Atlanta, which were believed to be the result of no supporting cast, something that was universally agreed upon. He then landed in St. Louis for a season, where he went .293 on 13 HRS, and 60 RBI, and the supporting cast around him there was average at best. That he stood out so highly as a contact hitter with a little pop, made the minor contribution with the dynamo defense a sure piece to have. We gave up Dexter Fowler, one of the heroes of our 2016 World Series team, to make room for Heyward who was already on the team by then. His games and plate appearances have reduced, though he is a regular starter. And I think we can all agree that in terms of line-up support, he's got a crew that stands only second to the Yankees, if they do at all.

And yet here's his line in 2016, the World Series year: .230, .306, .325 -- .060, .053, and .104 points below his year in Cardinal Red. In 2017 he got back some contact, going .259, .326, and .389. His production numbers of 11 HRS and 59 RBI are pretty much on par with what we can expect from him. He's not stacking doubles like he once did, and looking at his own Run totals, he's simply not on base as much. BUT, his strikeouts have actually trended down, hitting a career low last season.

While I don't like his plate performance, I can humbly admit that I got his problems wrong, saying that he was swinging high, when he should be looking low. He's putting balls into play, but he is literally being accounted for in the opposing teams defensive alignments every time he's up. While Heyward has become more efficient in judging pitches, on a scale most any team would desperately want from a bottom half of the order guy, his fly-outs and ground-outs are apparently predictable.

So, I dug in a little bit to see what was happening: http://www.fangraphs.com/spraycharts.aspx?playerid=4940&position=OF&type=battedball

His groundball placement says it all. He pulls on low, off-speed pitches so much that it's almost impossible for a team's 2B and 1B to not play inside the bases to get the snag. It's such an easy scoop for a 2B, that not getting it should be an error.

Heyward hasn't stopped hitting, he's lost bat speed. And that's not good at 26 (when the graph was charted). He's now 28, going into his third season with the Cubs. His contract nets him 21.5 this year, with a 6.66 signing bonus, and then he enters 2019 on a modified no-trade, with his lowest salary of his eight year contract, 20 mil with a 2.5 signing bonus. I'm guessing the Cubs are hoping for a career year, to either decide they will commit to him through the remainder of the contract, or for 2018 to be a resume year, so that they may be able to entertain a trade.

I feel bad for Heyward because his hitting woes are not totally his fault, but part of it is diminished skill, which was not part of his negotiation, I would presume. Maybe he has a nagging sore muscle that needs more time off then a playoff-bound team can afford to give, but as we're finding out, the GM's think very black and white about injuries. Some they are indifferent to, some they are not, and they usually do not follow the convention we're used in the modern era, when evaluating these players.

However, while statistics fail to totally capture Heyward's offensive struggle, the deeper statistics do point to a 'right-now' problem that should be a focus for him in the spring -- finding a way to not pull so many low, off-speed pitches. I doubt he can be changed to an equal spray, but getting him to put some across second base, rather than inside of it, makes the predictability harder for the 2B to play, and it means the SS has to choke up or down the line, which is guess work on a good day, and hell on a bad one, from their perspective.

I hope they can work this out, because 20 million is a lot, especially when someone who does not have this problem, Lorenzo Cain, and does not hit into ground-ball alignments, and from a GM's perspective, is only marginally worse in the outfield, and just signed for 13 to 14 mil a season.

When it does come to statistics, baseball can't be outdone, and knowledge is certainly derived from them.

But I do remember to keep this quote as my perspective: "If you dwell on statistics, you get shortsighted. If you aim for consistency, the numbers will be there at the end." Tom Seaver

 

[Freshmeboy]

Jason Hayward...? Doesn't he play fro the Minnitaugh Mudslingers...?

 

[Graviton]

IWe gave up Dexter Fowler, one of the heroes of our 2016 World Series team, to make room for Heyward ...

Ugh. I distinctly remember doing a spit take when I read that headline. He hasn't made many of them but that was a misstep on Theo's part. I'm hoping Chili can turn him around this year so they can deal him in July.

 

[DeletedUser33003]

To be fair, Dexter is 31, Jason is 28, I can definitely see the line of logic Theo used, if we are to believe that GM's really are betting against age, as the off-season has been suggesting.

But I also say, if that is the case now, and they are strictly factoring age to all intangibles, then the game is in for a major change, where 17 year olds are going to start making appearances. Even the greats need 15 years in the bigs to make HoF numbers, and by betting against age, the GM's are about to skew the entire thing that brings fans back -- milestones of greatness.

 

[DeletedUser33003]

On a different course of discussion in this topic, relief pitchers have been getting signed the past 72 hours.

Matt Albers, who is coming off the best season of his entire professional career, minors included, at 35 no less, signs with Milwaukee, on a two-year deal. His deal is reportedly worth 2.5 a year, and I'd say it's a bargain if 2017 is any indication of what he will do moving forward, as a 35 year old in a league that no longer cherishes experience.

Albers has been a typical journeyman reliever in the league, moving from team to team, and last off-season could only find a minor league deal with a ST invite waiting for him in Washington. He then became the only reliever worth mentioning in the Nats bullpen, all the way through the playoffs as a middle innings guy, who held the Cubs in the Divisional, scoreless over all his appearances.

Milwaukee pairs this signing, with Jhoulys Chacin and Yovani Gallardo, who they have brought in to fill in the back end of their rotation. I suspect they see Gallardo becoming a reliever, with spot start capabilities, and I think they believe Albers can be the guy to cover 5th-8th innings on a moment's notice, because their rotation is suspect, especially with Jimmy Nelson out on what should be season-ending surgery, before we even get started.

Milwaukee has definitely been active this off-season, which is not typical, and the players they are bringing in are a clear attempt at shoe stringing a division competitor, not a playoff bound team. With that said, if Milwaukee finds sweet relief in being a problem for the Cubs, and Cardinals, then their signings suggest that the NL Central is going to be a dog-fight this year.

Another weaker team in the NL Central announced today that they too are signing a journeyman reliever who also made a comeback year. David Hernandez signs with the Reds this afternoon, in a incentive-laden deals that maxes at 7 mil a year. Last year Hernandez got the same deal that Albers got, but from the Giants instead. He was cut there, picked up by the Braves, who then dealt him to the Angels. It was there that he put together a similar great season as Albers, striking out 52 over 55, only walking nine, and keeping his WHIP at an all-star level of 1.09.

Both these players prove that age does not make a huge impact in relief pitchers. Because they are playing smaller frames, the stereotype is that they get longevity that the current crop of starting free agents can't maintain.

And if that's not enough, another "oldie but goodie," Gregor Blanco returns to the Giants, at 34, on a minor league deal that could get him 1.5 million if he makes the team, and has an undisclosed amount of PAs. Blanco is league-average hitter, spanning from .246 to .259, depending on the year, but he steals bases consistently when on, and defensively, is a threat to catch your favorite bloop attempts.

Blanco was a depth piece for the Giants playoff runs in 2012 and 2014, which netted World Series trophies, he wasn't a strong hitter, but he did score a lot in his 33 PAs across all series.

For all this talk about older players not being worth it, it does seem GM's do value older guys at much cheaper rates.

 

[DeletedUser33003]

More news came in on the tail-end of working hours, as the Giants signed yet another veteran depth player, Andres Blanco, no relation to Gregor from earlier. This Blanco is similar: he's 34, he's on a minor league deal with incentives to make the club, and for quantity play. His deal is also different, because it gives him the chance to pursue professional deals in Asia, if he can't make the Giants.

Andres Blanco plays 2B, SS, and 3B, with a par-league hitting line, .256/.310/.378. However, he put together two seasons of plus .270 batting average, settled into Philadelphia where he was, on a three million dollar deal for 2017, where he promptly hit .192, and was essentially late spring fodder for the remainder of the season.

The Giants don't exactly hurt in the infield, at any of the positions Blanco is known for. But, he does give them a reliable defensive substitute, that has major league experience, and some history of competitive at-bats. At worst, they are likely out 60K on his minor league deal, as these deals usually entail a "living wage" at the minor level, regardless of the professional incentives.

But, the exit strategy built in for Asia, surely Japan, tells me Blanco already has offers overseas, and may not pursue spring training aggressively, other than for reps to get a head-start on the Japanese schedule.

Big news that was paired with this update, Yu Darvish, one of the big names left on the market, is now talking to the Brewers. Seriously, I'm not making this up, the Brewers are looking to land Darvish, because no other teams are giving him a serious look beyond the winter meetings. It is likely that Darvish is using the Brewers' interest to stack cards in his favor, in hopes that the teams he's really interested, and the one's that were pursuing him, up their offers.

While I can't say the Brewers couldn't land Darvish, I truly see this as Darvish trying to push the Cubs to get the signing done. The Brewers routinely have problems landing top free agent pitchers, usually because they are not known for throwing over 20 million at any players, but specifically pitchers.

But, if the Cubs, or the Twins, don't work to match or better their deals, Darvish may very well ace the Brewers. This would be game changing for the Brewers, because as mentioned earlier, they are cobbling an adequate rotation, with Nelson deliberately missing, to come back near the All-Star break.

If they sign Darvish, this will ensure that all young guys they are developing, like Brandon Woodruff, are going to get reps in the spring portion of the season, and then be spot starters/relievers for the remainder.

It also means that Nelson will a lot of pressure off of him when he returns from surgery recovery, and those things being solved for make the Brewers a legitimate threat to take the NL Central. It doesn't ensure it, it doesn't make them overly-dangerous, it just means they will have a significant chance of commanding their own destiny.

Bravo Brewers, I hope you get this to go your way, but I really think he's playing you to get us to sign him for what he wants, which is upwards of 25 million, with a sliding scale down to 20 million. At the same time, the Yankees are consumed with dealing Jacoby Ellsbury, which has been strongly suggested as the move they need to make, to make the room for a Darvish contract.

So the cold stove may finally get moving again, outside of Milwaukee that is.

 

[DeletedUser33003]

WHOA! Maybe we're going to start seeing some serious movement in the last two weeks of the official FA period.

Arizona strikes by signing the 2nd best catcher available, when evaluating both offense and defense, roping Alex Avila on a two-year, 16 million dollar deal.

Avila lacks framing technique, a lot. He's probably as bad as you can get for a catcher at defense, without going to the minor leagues. But, the trade off is his offense. While most great defensive catchers hit below .210, Avila hits routinely in the .260's, with a slug percentage that sticks in the .400's.

Avila causes match-up problems for pitchers everywhere he goes, when in the line-up. While many aces will work him to 1-3 performances, with a single, pitchers from three to five in rotations get worked by him, because while he's a bottom of the order guy, his hard contact numbers have only gotten better with every year he's been in the league, and last year was 2nd in the entire league, at 48.7 percent.

Just when a pitcher, especially mid-grade talents and below, think they let off the gas for a pitch or two, Avila was up at the plate to put them in their place. He's a ten-home run guy, so don't expect him to clear the yard, but, doubles are not out of the question, and the Diamondbacks had a back-end line-up between Jake Lamb, AJ Pollock, and Brandon Drury, that was quite elevated compared to league standards.

If Avila can mix in, and he's proven that he can with three other teams, this means that Arizona, a Wild Card team last year, will have a line-up from 5-8 that will ruin league average pitching, which they'll be facing three out of five nights.

It's not a gigantic splash, but it's the kind of move that starts churning the wheels, making others at the same position more valuable, think Miguel Montero and Jonathan Lucroy.

We'll see what happens tomorrow!

 

[Graviton]

Keep those updates coming! Darvish to Milwaukee? I hope you're right, that's it's just an attempt to leverage the Cubs. Still, I'd almost rather see him sign with the Brewers than get a contract with Chicago for more than five years, and even that's pushing it IMO. If he wants to balk (pun intended) at a four- or five-year deal, then forget him and go after Cobb.

The Rangers just signed Jon Niese to a minor league deal. He's only 31, but he's one of those guys with tons of upside who's never been able to put it all together for any length of time.

I need to start scouting for my Strat league, draft's coming up in March.

 

[DeletedUser33003]

Yea, I saw the Niese deal, I don't know a lot about him, probably for the same reasons you mentioned above. It sounds like the Rangers are declaring they are officially not signing pitchers with that move, because what I have read suggests they see him making the rotation out of ST.

 

[DeletedUser33003]

No moves are being reported this morning, I think the sports world is still reeling from the Alex Smith trade to the Skins, but we don't care about football here.

Instead, let's focus on the news that has come out, and some of it is telling as to what will happen next.

Word has broken out of Miami that the move sending Christian Yelich was done so to salvage what is left of the locker room. Yelich had been extremely vocal about his disapproval of the fire sale that got going in the Marlins organization, and consequently Yelich was no longer going to fit in the future plans of the organization.

The major concern of the Marlins front office (i.e. Derek Jeter) is that had they kept Yelich, he would have influenced JT Realmuto, who has a very high ceiling as a run-producing catcher who can also frame pitches and throw guys out at the keystone. With Realmuto being a truly rare talent, and Yelich being a superb talent, at a position where talent is often common, the move was easy to make.

However, it's been coming to light that Realmuto has been asking for a trade, perhaps from his own motivations. Realmuto is well-informed to do so. He's right to see the value he brings to any team, and recognize that it will not only be wasted in Miami, but likely abused to the point, that injuries would ruin him. Going to a team where the pressure to perform is not as great is the only thing he should be striving for. Miami is never going to be that team.

Justin Bour, their power-chomping first baseman has also been targeted in trade attempts, but he appears to be comfortable where he's at.

With Miami out of the way, we transition with Yelich, back to Milwaukee, where there's some more details coming out about Yu Darvish.

Milwaukee's owner, Mark Attanasio claims that with the signings his team has made, and the acquisition of Yelich, that brings his payroll to around 90 million dollars for 2018. He stated to the Brewers beat reporters that it leaves him with just over 20 million to sign "one of the big free agent pitchers."

And, because Attanasio's other businesses are based in Los Angeles, we now get a full picture of how the talks with Darvish have started. Darvish, who played for the Dodgers last season after a trade with the Rangers, has been vocal about staying with the Dodgers. That's not news, as every smart free agent would not blast the team they just played for. Coupled with the fact that early in the off-season, the Dodgers traded back for Matt Kemp from the Braves, and the monster contract they gave him, it would seem they were signalling they won't have the room to sign Darvish on a contract that would be at his value. Coupled with the story out of Dodgersland that said "Matt Kemp will be competing for time in left field," and I'd say we can put the kibosh on a Darvish return, to a town that is mixed on their singular blame of him "costing" them the World Series, in his two appearances.

The Yankees came up early as a suitor, I believe because they are always a "suitor" for big free agents. The rumor there was dependent on Jacoby Ellsbury being traded to the Orioles. Ellsbury's current contract pays him 22 million a year for the next three years. The Yankees have said they would be willing to cover half the value for a trade. The Orioles want Ellsbury, but only for more than half, and the Yankees want Manny Machado. The Orioles know Machado will be gone soon. They don't want it to be their pen that sends him to their bitter enemy. I'll say this isn't happening.

Part of why I say that is because the Yankees are now offering a deal to Neil Walker. When I say deal though, I mean they are talking numbers and years to Walker's agent, not actually a full negotiation yet. My guess is the Yankees are optimistic they net Machado, but they will likely have to wait until next year for him. And if that's the case, signing Walker would be a bit silly, because he's proven himself to be a starter, not a platoon bat, which he would be if Machado arrived. I'm going to say this won't happen either.

Then yesterday, news out of Dallas suggested the Rangers, who openly stated they were not going to be active in signing free agents, and made their "big" splashes with Mike Minor and Doug Fister, were going to re-sign Darvish. Amazingly, the reporter on this one cited no significant sources, and had no timetable to speak of. Worthless!

Next, Philadelphia is kicking the tires on a deal with Darvish, but....surprise, surprise, they're going to wait for everyone else to pass on him, so they can offer a short-term, incentive-laden deal, that essentially keeps his salary low, with expectations high......this is DEFINITELY not going to happen.

The Minnesota Twins are next up, and do appear to be aggressive about signing Darvish. Their discussions with media teased out that Darvish is looking for a six-year deal, from whomever signs him. The Twins are not interested in a six-year deal with anyone, especially after what their fan-base considers the robbery of the century, by Joe Mauer on his eight-year contract, which expires after this season. I, for one, don't think he under-performed, considering everything he went through, but that's another topic.

The Twins seem to be set on a five-year deal at most. Darvish would take it, I would imagine, if all other options are exhausted. But that's the key. Not all options are exhausted, and it seems there are more teams involved in Darvish then ever before.

Next are the Cubs. The Cubs have the money, for sure. They are sitting well below the luxury tax, with over 30 million in space. They may not want to spend money over six years, and they are in a position to insist on five years, compared to six. Darvish knows what he's getting into, because his own statements have been revolving around getting back to the World Series. Of the teams that have a serious chance of signing Darvish, the Cubs offer the most obvious route to that end. They have offense, they have defense, they have the bench, and the rotation around Darvish would make life easier when it comes to pressure, and that matters. What the Cubs don't have, which they have had over the last few years, is an over-powering bullpen.

Darvish would enter a team where his closer might be ex-Dodger teammate, Brendan Morrow. Morrow hasn't been a regular closer, but in the last few years, he's shown he has potential for the role, and after Wade Davis left for Colorado, and a major dump of the bullpen, it means Darvish, and the rest of the rotation would have what appears to be a league-average bullpen. It does mean a higher potential for blown saves, which means losses, and that could mean an early exit from the playoffs.

Finally, the Brewers. As mentioned earlier, even the team owner is involved at this point, likely directly. I said last night the Brewers seemed like a suitor that Darvish would use to get what he wants, out of where he truly wants to go. I believe Darvish is serious about the Cubs. I don't think he's serious about the Twins. But I do think the Brewers are making a pitch to Darvish in similar style as Epstein did to Lester in 2015. When Lester came to Chicago, they did not quite have the 'team to beat.' But they offered the money he wanted, and then some. I suspect the Brewers are working HARD to come up with more money than the Cubs would deem reasonable. However, the Cubs have more money to work with, so this is going to come down to whether Darvish feels welcome and supported in Milwaukee, or in Chicago. He just took a beating in LA, as mentioned, and he may see a big market fan base as one with competing loyalties, and fickle nature that ruins his confidence, especially when things don't go his way in a game.

Milwaukee has played in the shadow of Chicago, even in the Cubs' worst years, and anything they can do to change that narrative is finally on the table, it appears. Bringing in a pitcher like Darvish would be a huge shift in what the Brewers have done in the past, and the fan base may be so wholly altered in their team view, that fully supporting a quality pitcher who has unique moments of failure may be something they can get behind, treating him like a king in their city.

Ultimately, Darvish is going to the Cubs, or the Brewers, in terms of what's on the table, right now. Could that change? Sure. Ellsbury could wind up in Baltimore, Kemp could be somewhere else.......actually he can't, no one is going to take on a 33.5 million dollar contract for a .275 hitter who can hit 25 dingers. But, things could change. I just don't see them changing enough that anyone outside of Milwaukee and Chicago can compete for Darvish.

Hopefully we hear something about someone else soon, because all this dancing around Darvish suggests that a deal is actually in the works, and it's a matter of it being official.

 

[Graviton]

Yes, Walker has proven himself to be a starter, but he's also proven himself to be fragile. He's only played as many as 150 games twice in his career. Maybe platooning keeps him healthier, longer; he's also got a significant split (.854 OPS against righties last year versus .610 against lefties, only slightly worse than his career numbers). He's one of those guys I watched come up through the Pirates system and play here in Indy, so I still follow him.

The whole Miami situation is crazy, and has been since that franchise's inception. One would think that market would be a natural fit for baseball; how they've managed to run it into the ground I have no idea. A comedy of errors. Hopefully Jeter and Co. can get it worked out, but he's off to a rocky start. He'll have to grow his own team, nobody wants to sign there.

 

[DeletedUser33003]

The problem with Miami, and Tampa, is that the summer is painstakingly hot, to sit out in bleachers, and it took so long for professional baseball to get down there, that the fan base would take that much longer to build up.

Tampa is such a magnet for spring training, that the Rays stand no chance. The Yankees facilities are directly across the street from Raymond James Stadium, where the Bucs play, and their building dwarfs it! The Yankees have such a following in the Pinellas-Hillsborough area, that the Rays will have to win for 40 straight years before they can rival it.

Miami has been a roller coaster since they started, like you said, and who wants to watch that? Plus, with Miami being a large retirement/resettlement area, the fans there are just as transient in who they follow.

Jacksonville and Orlando would have better prospects of hosting the league than Miami and Tampa.