ok data is in, goal, 780 candles, apprx 390 matches
I spent 16,800 D 1600 stars (funny how they sneak that extra 50 in there, couldn't be 1000 D for 1000 stars, no, they had to squeak out an 50...lol)
X world
Started with 150 matches
1600 stars - 12 SO kits (1 was 2x), have 21 total
got 228 matches, 378 total matches at 744 candles
so, 160 presents produced 228 matches, 1.43 m/p BUTTT this ratio doesn't mean much bcs it is completely random, depends what gift you get, stars vs junk excluding the daily special, figure you play one you want.
(I could compare it to a minimum, opening all gifts getting shuffle last and 2X does not hit a star bonus. Also, first round the key but next rounds it is +10 stars and fragment. but it is Sat so those calculations are a M-F thing...lol)
With 378 matches I got 744 candles, need 790 so 46 short, 30 matches should do it.
I have 96 stars, 210 more coming, makes 306, add a few incidents, sat 320. That's 32 matches for sure, assume the worst, 1.9 candles = 60, 790 is a lock, no more diamonds.
G world
Started 139 matches
1600 stars - 15 SO kits, have 23 total
got 228 matches (same as X, coincidence), 367 total matches at 720 candles
160 presents produced 228 matches, 1.43 m/p
@ 720 candles, need 70 more. 293 stars to get, 29 presents. If I get same 1.4 m/p ratio, 40 matches, 1.9 candles/match = 76, so this one is very possible with no more diamonds spent.
Lets see