Winter's SoK

[DeletedUser27184]

Today we got the SoK in the Winter event. And I wonder if it is now the time to go for it.

Currently I got 137 starts, which give me 6 tries to get he SoK. If I will get it, great.
But if I don't do it within those 6 times, I will not be able to continue, since I wont have enough starts.

So I thought to wait till the 2nd time that SoK appears. But its not an assured thing, usually Inno publish the SoK two times, one at the beginning of the event, one at the end. But if they won't put it again, I will get nothing.

So, go for it today? Or wait for the 2nd time SoK appears?

 

[DeletedUser27023]

this depends on whether you are only planning on using stars or a combination of stars and diamonds. If stars only, I don’t think it matters whether you try now or the second time it shows up. Now if you plan on buying them outright with diamonds the day after then buy them now. During the beta, the diamond price increased for the SoK the second time it showed up.

My main issue with getting the SoK with stars is what do you do after you win an SoK? Now you have to play till you get a shuffle and then start the whole process over again. A real PITA.

 

[DeletedUser27184]

I use stars only.

The issue is that now I have only 6 tries. If I nailed the SoK, then great, if not, those 6 tries worth nothing.

If I wait for 2nd SoK, I will have more tries. So even if I need 10 tries, I will be able to continue.

The question is how sure are we that Inno will put the SoK a second time? If so, its better to wait, I think.

 

[DeletedUser27023]

Only as sure as they did in beta. It’s to early to say if they will follow the same list or not. The only we know for sure is that the order is different and the diamond price hasn’t been the same for every item. I would give it a 90% chance or better that we will see it twice. This is a long event.

 

[ODragon]

3 guesses got me 2 SoKs today, I was lucky... Production building, 2x, SoK. Back to saving stars for the next SoK return.

To your question. there really is no answer. You could be like me and get them early our you could spend all your stars now (or in the future) and not get them. The reset can really mess things up.

 

[Salsuero]

Nope. Save your stars and go for it the next time.

 

[DeletedUser31498]

I'm quite certain it's better to go for it now..

you have 13 attempts, not 6, since they cost 10? But the most important factor is that if you win one, you need to hit reshuffle before you can try again, and similarly reshuffle resets everything. So even if you have enough stars to buy every present, you're maybe 80% to get one? id have to do math on that. But the easy math is your current odds with 130 stars of not hitting SoK or reshuffle in your 13 attempts is around 1%. And given that you hit either, having saved up for more attempts is useless. But by spending now, you have the chance of hitting more than once. The reshuffle "present" is the huge factor here that I think people are misleading.

 

[DeletedUser31498]

I should add, two presents give you more stars, so you'll have even more attempts. Definitely go for it now, with over 99% certainty

 

[Salsuero]

I'm quite certain it's better to go for it now..

Definitely go for it now, with over 99% certainty

That's absurd. If you save your stars, you have more opportunities to fail and continue. If you open up 13 presents and don't get a SoK now... you have no more chances. More chances is always better. If you look at my town, I think my SoKs can attest to that being a good path to victory. You're not wrong about your math, but spending all your stars now means you have a higher chance of winning nothing.

 

[*Arturis*]

Today we got the SoK in the Winter event. And I wonder if it is now the time to go for it.

Currently I got 137 starts, which give me 6 tries to get he SoK. If I will get it, great.
But if I don't do it within those 6 times, I will not be able to continue, since I wont have enough starts.

So I thought to wait till the 2nd time that SoK appears. But its not an assured thing, usually Inno publish the SoK two times, one at the beginning of the event, one at the end. But if they won't put it again, I will get nothing.

So, go for it today? Or wait for the 2nd time SoK appears?

It is worse chance than the wheel, all I can tell ya The ultimate goal from this event is making you spent diamond, don't expect to get your SoK with your 137 stars unless you are extremely lucky. If I were you, I would spend it today and save more for the 2nd time around.

 

[DeletedUser31498]

That's absurd. If you save your stars, you have more opportunities to fail and continue. If you open up 13 presents and don't get a SoK now... you have no more chances. More chances is always better. If you look at my town, I think my SoKs can attest to that being a good path to victory. You're not wrong about your math, but spending all your stars now means you have a higher chance of winning nothing.

Sal, your logic is what I'm attempting to correct. Let's pretend you have 180 stars, and hence can buy 18 presents (there are 18 total presents). Please understand, with 180 stars, you WILL NOT GET EVERY PRESENT ONCE.

The presence of the re-shuffle makes this VERY DIFFERENT than a simple game you're thinking of. the odds of getting the SoK and reshuffle as the last two are <1%. GIVEN that you hit one of those two, having more stars doesnt matter. Unless you understand that, this discussion won't go anywhere.

 

[Salsuero]

Sal, your logic is what I'm attempting to correct. Let's pretend you have 180 stars, and hence can buy 18 presents (there are 18 total presents). Please understand, with 180 stars, you WILL NOT GET EVERY PRESENT ONCE.

The presence of the re-shuffle makes this VERY DIFFERENT than a simple game you're thinking of. the odds of getting the SoK and reshuffle as the last two are <1%. GIVEN that you hit one of those two, having more stars doesnt matter. Unless you understand that, this discussion won't go anywhere.

I disagree. It doesn't matter whether they are last or first... only the order you hit them. If you hit reshuffle before SoK, no matter when you hit it, you lose -- start over! Those odds are literally 50/50.

I played last winter. Same system. I earned more than one SoK because I had many stars to work with. There's no guarantee with the reshuffle. Therefore, the more chances you have, the more reshuffles you can actually live with and still possibly get a SoK. One untimely reshuffle now and he gets nothing and has lost 13 chances for next time. I'm not talking from a position of "probabilities" but from one of fact... I hit reshuffles multiple times last year, but was able to weather it due to the stars I had saved up. Sure... go for it now if you want. Don't be surprised if you get nothing. Luck is luck. If you have good luck, great. If you don't... ouch. I prefer to have more opportunities than less when I'm trying to catch lightning in a bottle.

The reason the SoK shows up so early is because many people will be impatient and try to get it now... then most won't win and will pay diamonds out of frustration and fear. Then they put it again later and those who tried the first time will try again, and probably get a similar result... use diamonds again... and voila -- Inno makes money. Those who are patient have a better shot than those who are not. But by all means, give it your best. I wouldn't, I didn't, and I won't.

 

[DeletedUser31498]

I disagree. It doesn't matter whether they are last or first... only the order you hit them. If you hit reshuffle before SoK, no matter when you hit it, you lose -- start over!

I played last winter. Same system. I earned more than one SoK because I had many stars to work with. There's no guarantee with the reshuffle. Therefore, the more chances you have, the more reshuffles you can actually live with and still possibly get a SoK. One untimely reshuffle now and he gets nothing and has lost 13 chances for next time. I'm not talking from a position of "probabilities" but from one of fact... I hit reshuffles multiple times last year, but was able to weather it due to the stars I had saved up. Sure... go for it now if you want. Don't be surprised if you get nothing. Luck is luck. If you have good luck, great. If you don't... ouch. I prefer to have more opportunities than less when I'm trying to catch lightning in a bottle.

The reason the SoK shows up so early is because many people will be impatient and try to get it now... then most won't win and will pay diamonds out of frustration and fear. Then they put it again later and those who tried the first time will try again, and probably get a similar result... use diamonds again... and voila -- Inno makes money. Those who are patient have a better shot than those who are not. But by all means, give it your best. I wouldn't, I didn't, and I won't.

Ugh Sal please stop and listen.

Please let's only discuss this one point., which has two facets.

1) Once you hit the SoK, in order to have a chance at another, you need to hit reshuffle.

2) If you have 170 stars (not 180), the ABSOLUTE WORST YOU CAN DO is open 17 presents, with the 17th being reshuffle and the SoK being the unopened 18th present. At that time, you have a clean slate, so you're now in the same spot as before, having "wasted" nothing, but been unlucky.

After you agree on this, I'll continue. But until you understand those two points, writing more text is only going to detract from the important point.

 

[Salsuero]

1) Once you hit the SoK, in order to have a chance at another, you need to hit reshuffle.

Would you rather have one or none? You have a better shot at hitting at least one with more stars than with fewer. Sorry, but that's just a fact.

2) If you have 170 stars (not 180), the ABSOLUTE WORST YOU CAN DO is open 17 presents, with the 17th being reshuffle and the SoK being the unopened 18th present. At that time, you have a clean slate, so you're now in the same spot as before, having "wasted" nothing, but been unlucky.

Wrong. You can open reshuffle (technically called "Shuffle All") 17 times in a row if you have the absolute worst luck. Technically that would be an unlimited bad luck since they give you 10 stars each time you hit reshuffle, but you get the idea because... the reshuffle doesn't just rearrange the presents left on the board. It restarts the entire board. Understand now?

 

[DeletedUser31498]

Today we got the SoK in the Winter event. And I wonder if it is now the time to go for it.

Currently I got 137 starts, which give me 6 tries to get he SoK. If I will get it, great.
But if I don't do it within those 6 times, I will not be able to continue, since I wont have enough starts.

So I thought to wait till the 2nd time that SoK appears. But its not an assured thing, usually Inno publish the SoK two times, one at the beginning of the event, one at the end. But if they won't put it again, I will get nothing.

So, go for it today? Or wait for the 2nd time SoK appears?

Jobu please trust me, it is with absolute certainty better to go for the SoK now. My earlier discussion was even excluding the fact that two prizes give yuo more stars, and one displays two presents. so 137 stars you are literally better off starting now 100% of the time.

 

[DeletedUser31498]

Would you rather have one or none? You have a better shot at hitting at least one with more stars than with fewer. Sorry, but that's just a fact.



Wrong. You can open reshuffle 17 times in a row if you have the absolute worst luck. The reshuffle doesn't just rearrange the presents. It restarts the entire board. Understand now?

Sal. Reshuffle does reset the board. That's the point.

Can we please agree you've only wasted stars IF:
The board currently has unopened presents that you want, and you have no stars left?

PLEASEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE, agree with that point.

ok good, so once yuo hit reshuffle, you haven't wasted any stars. geez i thought you were smarter than this. Please no one listen to sal on this point.

 

[Salsuero]

Sal. Reshuffle does reset the board. That's the point.

It does for everyone but you:



What does "resets all the presents" mean to you? Keep in mind... I've actually played this game before.

 

[DeletedUser31498]

What are you talking about. I said, "Reshuffle does reset the board. That's the point."

ll the presents get scrambled, so you're back to square 1. that's what I'm saying. It's as if you are starting all over again.

Are you seriously this bad with logic? I'm trying to help other players, I'm guessing you're trying to sabotage them? like when you asked other ppl not participate in a giveway lol.

 

[Salsuero]

All the presents get scrambled, so you're back to square 1. that's what I'm saying. It's as if you are starting all over again.

Are you seriously this bad with logic? I'm trying to help other players, I'm guessing you're trying to sabotage them? like when you asked other ppl not participate in a giveway lol.

Are you kidding? You start all over. So what happens if you hit reshuffle after the first present 17 times in a row if the first present you pick isn't a SoK?

They don't give you your original stars back. You do realize that, right? You only get 10 stars when you hit reshuffle. So if you spend 170 and hit reshuffle... you start over with just 10 stars. Sure, that's worst-case scenario, but you can open 5 and the reshuffle, open 6 and then reshuffle, open 7 and then reshuffle, etc. and never hit the SoK!

Go ahead. Open your presents. The only person being sabotaged here is you and whoever listens to your flawed "advice". You don't seem to know how the game actually works. I've actually played it many times... have you?

 

[DeletedUser31498]

lol ok Sal. Please save all your 1k stars for the end. You're going to hit an SoK, and waste tons of stars HOPING for reshuffle.

I love how you think playing this game longer means you can understand logic. This is so simple, I'm baffled how you don't understand:

The ONLY way to "waste" stars is to leave unopened presents that you want, with no stars to spend. hence, if you have enough to guarantee you can open EITHER the SoK or the reshuffle, 137 stars is enough to guarantee that (given the extra stars, and show 2 presents).

I honestly feel sorry for you if you can't grasp that. But I'm done. Smarter people will read this and understand, but if anyone else wants me to explain it just PM me, I'm not helping Sal anymore with this.