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Winter's SoK

  • Thread starter DeletedUser27184
  • Start date
Salsuero

Salsuero

Well-Known Member
gutmeister said:
lol ok Sal. Please save all your 1k stars for the end. You're going to hit an SoK, and waste tons of stars HOPING for reshuffle.

I love how you think playing this game longer means you can understand logic. This is so simple, I'm baffled how you don't understand:

The ONLY way to "waste" stars is to leave unopened presents that you want, with no stars to spend. hence, if you have enough to guarantee you can open EITHER the SoK or the reshuffle, 137 stars is enough to guarantee that (given the extra stars, and show 2 presents).

I honestly feel sorry for you if you can't grasp that. But I'm done. Smarter people will read this and understand, but if anyone else wants me to explain it just PM me, I'm not helping Sal anymore with this.
Click to expand...

I see what you're talking about now. You're saying you can just leave the reshuffle prize on the board and keep opening presents. Except, when "Shuffle All" appears, you can't open any more presents. You must press start. That's it. That's the gamble. Otherwise, it would be very easy to get almost everything you want, given enough stars. The reshuffle is what makes it "hard".

And... I don't need your help. You don't know how the game works. You'll find out.
 

DeletedUser31498

Yes it's what makes getting the SoK not guaranteed, even given enough money to buy all presents. But thats why playing now is so important. He has enough to open presents until he hits one of Sok or reshuffle. So he's wasting an opportunity to hit SoK early, and not use stars hoping for reshuffle, for the chance to try again.

but hitting reshuffle before you hit SoK is not having wasted stars. It was an opportunity to buy SoK, just like at the later date. If you use 100 stars and hit reshuffle, oh well you lost, and now you need to wait for next time. but saving 1k stars all for the end is so obviously wrong it hurts me.
 
Salsuero

Salsuero

Well-Known Member
gutmeister said:
The ONLY way to "waste" stars is to leave unopened presents that you want, with no stars to spend. hence, if you have enough to guarantee you can open EITHER the SoK or the reshuffle, 137 stars is enough to guarantee that (given the extra stars, and show 2 presents).
Click to expand...
gutmeister said:
Yes it's what makes getting the SoK not guaranteed, even given enough money to buy all presents. But thats why playing now is so important. He has enough to open presents until he hits one of Sok or reshuffle. So he's wasting an opportunity to hit SoK early, and not use stars hoping for reshuffle, for the chance to try again.
Click to expand...

Suddenly it's not a guarantee. Interesting. If you think 13 attempts is a guarantee to win a SoK, then go for it. Speaking historically, from experience, 13 attempts is a guarantee of nothing... 100 attempts... that certainly increases the odds that you will hit at least once, though also not a guarantee. The only guarantee is diamonds the next day.

gutmeister said:
...but hitting reshuffle before you hit SoK is not having wasted stars. It was an opportunity to buy SoK, just like at the later date. If you use 100 stars and hit reshuffle, oh well you lost, and now you need to wait for next time. but saving 1k stars all for the end is so obviously wrong it hurts me.
Click to expand...

Assuming you hit it. So, your logic is your logic. Run with it. I'll keep winning them my way. I have won multiple SoKs in this game. I think my logic works just fine. Good luck to you!
 
Last edited:

DeletedUser27910

The only way to know how many stars you need is to know exactly what reward each square gives and then look at the worst case scenario. As far as I can tell the worst case scenario would be to get the show 2 on your first guess and have the shuffle and the x2 exposed. At this point you still have 15 unknown squares. Worst case scenario is that you open 14 of those squares and don't get the SoK. You would then need enough stars to select the x2 and then the final square which should be the SoK. The final conclusion is that you need to know how many stars it would take to open the 14 unknown squares and then you would need an addition 30 stars to open the show 2, the x2 and the SoK. If you start a fresh board with fewer than that many stars you run the risk of running out stars at a time when it would be favorable for you to continue opening squares.
 

DeletedUser31498

Salsuero said:
Suddenly it's not a guarantee. Interesting. If you think 13 attempts is a guarantee to win a SoK, then go for it. Speaking historically, from experience, 13 attempts is a guarantee of nothing... 100 attempts... that certainly increases the odds that you will hit at least once, though also not a guarantee. The only guarantee is diamonds the next day.



Assuming you hit it. So, your logic is your logic. Run with it. I'll keep winning them my way. I have won multiple SoKs in this game. I think my logic works just fine. Good luck to you!
Click to expand...

omg Sal you cant read. I wrote:

:if you have enough to guarantee you can open EITHER the SoK or the reshuffle,"

I even put it in ALL CAPS, "EITHER"

And yes, sal, 137 stars is enough to guarantee you don't waste stars today. you might not win an SoK, but you didn't waste stars trying today, as opposed to waiting.

I feel so sorry for you lol
 

DeletedUser31440

LacLongQuan said:
What with all the hype about SoK anyway?:p
Click to expand...

Some guy with a level 131 Arc and a 120ish Chateau has a whole field of them, so apparently that, their fp density, and coins makes them worthwhile or some other such nonsense.
 
Salsuero

Salsuero

Well-Known Member
gutmeister said:
And yes, sal, 137 stars is enough to guarantee you don't waste stars today.
Click to expand...

LOL -- whatever.

gutmeister said:
you might not win an SoK, but you didn't waste stars trying today, as opposed to waiting.
Click to expand...

If your goal is to win a SoK and you don't... yes, stars wasted. End of story. If everyone could win a SoK by simply saving their stars until today, it wouldn't be much of a risk/reward. You imply that there is no luck involved if your goal is ONLY to win a SoK and everything else is just fodder on your way to that goal as long as you have "enough stars". Oddly enough, my argument is that you would have even more "enough stars" by waiting until next time and an even better chance at having that good luck. But again, take a shot today if you must. You may get lucky! Many people do. Many also do not.

gutmeister said:
I feel so sorry for you lol
Click to expand...

Why? I'm doing just fine. Your constant negative attitude toward me is disturbing. I've only responded to you, but you've been very insulting over and over. You should take a look at yourself.
 

DeletedUser31498

Salsuero said:
LOL -- whatever.



If your goal is to win a SoK and you don't... yes, stars wasted. End of story. If everyone could win a SoK by simply saving their stars until today, it wouldn't be much of a risk/reward. You imply that there is no luck involved if your goal is ONLY to win a SoK and everything else is just fodder on your way to that goal as long as you have "enough stars". Oddly enough, my argument is that you would have even more "enough stars" by waiting until next time and an even better chance at having that good luck. But again, take a shot today if you must. You may get lucky! Many people do. Many also do not.



Why? I'm doing just fine. Your constant negative attitude toward me is disturbing. I've only responded to you, but you've been very insulting over and over. You should take a look at yourself.
Click to expand...

Sal, what you somehow can't comprehend, is that while one might not win, the only way to waste** stars is to leave WANTED unopened presents. So while 137 stars DOES NOT guarantee you an SoK, it DOES guarantee you the FULL OPPORTUNITY*** to win one. I DO feel sorry for you. This concept is so simple. I've asked several co-workers, and they all agree you must actually understand this, and are simply trolling me.

**waste means NOT maximizing an opportunity. It doesn't mean winning 100% of the time.
***Full opportunity means that you hit either a reshuffle or an SoK.
 
Salsuero

Salsuero

Well-Known Member
gutmeister said:
Sal, what you somehow can't comprehend, is that while one might not win, the only way to waste** stars is to leave WANTED unopened presents. So while 137 stars DOES NOT guarantee you an SoK, it DOES guarantee you the FULL OPPORTUNITY*** to win one. I DO feel sorry for you. This concept is so simple. I've asked several co-workers, and they all agree you must actually understand this, and are simply trolling me.

**waste means NOT maximizing an opportunity. It doesn't mean winning 100% of the time.
***Full opportunity means that you hit either a reshuffle or an SoK.
Click to expand...

Knock it off. Your sympathy and your feelings are unnecessary to this discussion. Your condescending tone is completely unhelpful. I know what I'm talking about. You seem to think you can win a SoK no matter what just by opening more and more presents, even though you will run out of stars if you are unlucky and open a reshuffle, especially if more than once. I'm done. This is a ridiculous discussion because your logic is flawed and you think mine is flawed. However which one of us has actually won multiple SoKs playing this particular event? I'm not going to agree to your failed logic when I've actually played the event and won SoKs. That would be silly of me.
 

DeletedUser31498

Salsuero said:
Knock it off. Your sympathy and your feelings are unnecessary to this discussion. Your condescending tone is completely unhelpful. I know what I'm talking about. You seem to think you can win a SoK no matter what just by opening more and more presents, even though you will run out of stars if you are unlucky and open a reshuffle, especially if more than once. I'm done. This is a ridiculous discussion because your logic is flawed and you think mine is flawed. However which one of us has actually won multiple SoKs playing this particular event? I'm not going to agree to your failed logic when I've actually played the event and won SoKs. That would be silly of me.
Click to expand...

I've literally never said you're guaranteed to win one. You keep saying I've said that. I'm telling people how to maximize their chance of getting one. and playing today with 137 stars is how to do that.

I'm glad you're waiting, I hope others don't. Please bring this game to someone you know that you view as intelligent, and let them explain it to you. I've had my fill. good luck to you as well!
 
Salsuero

Salsuero

Well-Known Member
gutmeister said:
I've literally never said you're guaranteed to win one. You keep saying I've said that. I'm telling people how to maximize their chance of getting one. and playing today with 137 stars is how to do that.
Click to expand...

Sure it is. Good luck!

gutmeister said:
I'm glad you're waiting, I hope others don't. Please bring this game to someone you know that you view as intelligent, and let them explain it to you. I've had my fill. good luck to you as well!
Click to expand...

More insults to make your case really gives you credibility.
 

qaccy

Well-Known Member
Wasn't the question whether or not it's better to try for the SoK now or to wait for it to appear on a subsequent day? What makes it better to do so today versus waiting for the 2nd appearance when one would have more stars, @gutmeister? I started only skimming over the 'argument' above because it started to sound like it got derailed from the original question. Having more stars means more opportunities to open presents, which logically means that more stars means more chances to win SoKs, correct? Luck comes into play, sure, but more chances is more chances and you've got better odds to grab a prize with 300 stars vs 100. I would think that'd be pretty simple to understand, or I'm missing something that isn't obvious to me at the moment.

Basically, @jobu523, it's better to wait for a second appearance if your sole focus is to get SoKs from this event. This is only the wrong course of action if SoKs don't appear again as the daily prize (in which case you get nothing, guaranteed), but it's very unlikely that they only appear once.
 
*Arturis*

*Arturis*

Well-Known Member
I don't have any, used to have around 60 collected from events over the years, deleted them for room last year.
I thought I stacked them in my cape/inno/hagia/kraken/cdm/AO lol.
 

DeletedUser31498

qaccy said:
Wasn't the question whether or not it's better to try for the SoK now or to wait for it to appear on a subsequent day? What makes it better to do so today versus waiting for the 2nd appearance when one would have more stars, @gutmeister? I started only skimming over the 'argument' above because it started to sound like it got derailed from the original question. Having more stars means more opportunities to open presents, which logically means that more stars means more chances to win SoKs, correct? Luck comes into play, sure, but more chances is more chances and you've got better odds to grab a prize with 300 stars vs 100. I would think that'd be pretty simple to understand, or I'm missing something that isn't obvious to me at the moment.

Basically, @jobu523, it's better to wait for a second appearance if your sole focus is to get SoKs from this event. This is only the wrong course of action if SoKs don't appear again as the daily prize (in which case you get nothing, guaranteed), but it's very unlikely that they only appear once.
Click to expand...

qaccy you're right, obviously, more stars are better. But I'd enoucrage you to read my comments, since it's a non-obvious conclusion that given 130 stars, youre expected number of SokS over the event is higher if you play now. I didnt even get in to the second piece of the argument, which is subtler, since Sal doesn't understand the first part.

But Sal's case of waiting all for the end, you squander the benefit of winning an SoK early. For instance, I won one on my 5th attempt. If I waited, I would now need to waste stars searching for the shuffle, hoping to win another.
 
*Arturis*

*Arturis*

Well-Known Member
This argument is not relevant as we are talking about the random event with odd involved. All you need is luck. Of course you can improve your luck with diamond to support the game:)
 
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