Winter's SoK

[Salsuero]

I think most people could get one

I think that's what Inno hopes people think... and that's why they make lots of diamond money in these events. The fact is, it's random. You could very easily not be one of those "most" people (though I don't agree with it being "most" -- I'd like to see actual real win statistics). I don't have a problem with people winning one now. I just know that it's no more or less easy to do and so I prefer to expand my luck with more opportunities at a single time. I get that people think it will cost more to go after the reshuffle for a second/third/etc. win, but that's the same randomness as it is the first time. The truth is, I could hit SoK + reshuffle back to back just as likely now as during the next one. The benefit next time comes when I am unlucky and don't hit the SoK with many tries... still having more stars to keep trying... whereas, this one would be more limited and losing those stars without getting the SoK means the next time I would still have less stars to try again because I spent some on the first try. Seems like the anecdotal evidence here of people actually winning them early would prove me wrong, but nope. Luck is still luck. Just because someone wins the lottery at my local liquor store doesn't make me any more or less likely to win it there.

...the presents will be in the exact same position the next time the SoK comes up assuming you don’t open anything else.

Huh? I don't follow what you mean.

 

[DeletedUser27023]

Huh? I don't follow what you mean.

My point is that if you try for an SoK and run out of stars, you COULD simply stop and earn more stars and then he next time the SoK comes up the presents will be in the exact same position including what you have already opened. Then when you get more stars you can just continue where you left off. You’re not out anything.

The reality is that it’s all random. People are asking what they MIGHT expect to win. I think my very small sampling could be a reasonable outcome. But in this case we are spending diamonds anyway so we are not running out of chances.

 

[Salsuero]

My point is that if you try for an SoK and run out of stars, you COULD simply stop and earn more stars and then he next time the SoK comes up the presents will be in the exact same position including what you have already opened. Then when you get more stars you can just continue where you left off. You’re not out anything.

I'm almost positive that isn't true. I believe the presents randomize every time you close and reopen the event window. The only thing that stays the same is the ones you've already won vs. the ones that are still hidden. I may be wrong, but I'm pretty sure I'm right on this one point.

 

[DeletedUser27184]

I'm almost positive that isn't true. I believe the presents randomize every time you close and reopen the event window. The only thing that stays the same is the ones you've already won vs. the ones that are still hidden. I may be wrong, but I'm pretty sure I'm right on this one point.

Yape, I think so too.

 

[DeletedUser27184]

Usually Inno offers diamonds together with stars at some point during the event. Sometimes twice but maybe only once this time. I’m hoping they offer it before the next SoK comes up

Lol.
I just opened the game, and I got this specific offer. Diamonds + Starts.
Now, I do believe in supporting the game, so I don't mind to pay up to 10$ a month within this game. So I gonna take a small diamonds+stars offer before the next time. Its not much, but its nice.

 

[Salsuero]

I just opened the game, and I got this specific offer. Diamonds + Starts.

Yup... and who thinks it's just a coincidence that the SoK is the item on sale for diamonds the same day they offer this special diamond+stars sale?

Now, I do believe in supporting the game, so I don't mind to pay up to 10$ a month within this game. So I gonna take a small diamonds+stars offer before the next time. Its not much, but its nice.

Those of us who don't/can't pay rely on folks like you to keep the game going, so thanks!

 

[DeletedUser31498]

Ok I figured out a way to explain this that even Sal can understand...I hope....

So you all are fixated on the fact that having more stars is better. Which is obvious, and silly wrt to the point.

The current scenario is we get offered the SoK today, and let's say 2 weeks from now. You all advocate saving all 2k stars for the second SoK daily prize. As the game works now, if you hit an SoK, you need to find the reshuffle before you can win again. So if you hit reshuffle first before SoK, you're back to square 1 (equivalent to playing yesterday and waiting for the next one). And if you're lucky and hit SoK, you need to hit reshuffle, then hit SoK again before the next reshuffle.

Imagine instead a scenario where they only offer SoK once, at the end. This time, instead of needing to hit reshuffle after you finally win an SoK, the board just automatically resets to a clean slate, like when you first started. Does anyone think this version of the game favors players? I for one much prefer this version, since once I win the SoK, I instantly save the stars wasted in finding the reshuffle.......

and guess what! that's the version of the game I got from playing yesterday!!

And please no more replies from anyone saying, "but more stars are better and ill have more at the end"

 

[DeletedUser29055]

What?!? Of course you're better off saving your stars. Let's say you spend 100 stars now and hit reshuffle without getting the SoK, and you're now out of stars. If the exact same thing happens later, after you've saved up way more stars (it is a long event), you will still have stars left to keep trying! More chances is always better than fewer chances, no matter how you try to skew the math.

Let me try with an example.

Let’s assume you have 120 stars. Now, you tried it yesterday and got the sok on your fifth try and stopped playing, saving the 70 stars for the next time a sok comes up. The next time sok comes up, all presents are hidden again, and you can start going for the second sok with the 70 stars plus the other 400 stars you got in the meantime thus with 470 stars .

If you wait for the second time, you start with 520 stars. You hit the sok on your fifth try and have 470 stars to try for the second. But, in reality you have less stars available b/c you now you have to first spend stars to find the reshuffle. Let’s say, you need eight tries to find the reshuffle. Now, you only have 390 stars for your second attempt on a sok, less than above.

Lets say you did not get a sok yesterday. You hit reshuffle on your fifth try, having 70 + 400 stars for the next time the soks come up.
Instead if you waited for the second times soks come up and you hit reshuffle on your fifth try, then you have 470 stars available as well ( 120 + 400 - 50). So no difference.

In sum, if you manage to hit sok yesterday you should be off better. If you hit reshuffle yesterday, then no different.

Now, i was probably more than an exception by having to really open all presents and ending up 10 stars short. Most players should either hit sok or reshuffle earlier.

Hope that helps. And i hope i hit what gutmeister was talking about.

 

[DeletedUser]

Let me try with an example.

Let’s assume you have 120 stars. Now, you tried it yesterday and got the sok on your fifth try and stopped playing, saving the 70 stars for the next time a sok comes up. The next time sok comes up, all presents are hidden again, and you can start going for the second sok with the 70 stars plus the other 400 stars you got in the meantime.

If you wait for the second time, you start with 520 stars. You hit the sok on your fifth try and have 470 stars to try for the second. But, in reality you have less stars available b/c you now you have to first spend stars to find the reshuffle. Let’s say, you need eight tries to find the reshuffle. Now, you only have 390 stars for your second attempt on a sok, less as above.

Lets say you did not get a sok yesterday. 7ou hit reshuffle on your fifth try, having 70 + 400 stars for the nest time the soks come up.
Instead if you waited for the second times soks come up and you hit reshuffle on your fifth try, then you have 470 stars available as well ( 120 + 400 - 50). So now difference.

In sum, if you manage to hit sok yesterday you should be off better. If you hit reshuffle yesterday, then now different.

Now, i was probably more than an exception bu having to really open all presents and ending up 10 stars short. Most players should either hit sok or reshuffle earlier.

Hope that helps. And i hope i hit what gutmeister was talking about.

Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think the issue is the second SoK. The issue that I'm arguing is that you have a much better chance of getting at least 1 SoK if you wait and save your stars for the second time it shows up. And even if it was a 2nd SoK, you would still be better off waiting. Your examples are biased in their construction to fit your narrative.
I never plan my star spending based on trying to get 2 of anything. Unless, of course, it's at or near the end and I'm just spending them to get something for them.

 

[DeletedUser31498]

Let me try with an example.

Let’s assume you have 120 stars. Now, you tried it yesterday and got the sok on your fifth try and stopped playing, saving the 70 stars for the next time a sok comes up. The next time sok comes up, all presents are hidden again, and you can start going for the second sok with the 70 stars plus the other 400 stars you got in the meantime thus with 470 stars .

If you wait for the second time, you start with 520 stars. You hit the sok on your fifth try and have 470 stars to try for the second. But, in reality you have less stars available b/c you now you have to first spend stars to find the reshuffle. Let’s say, you need eight tries to find the reshuffle. Now, you only have 390 stars for your second attempt on a sok, less than above.

Lets say you did not get a sok yesterday. You hit reshuffle on your fifth try, having 70 + 400 stars for the next time the soks come up.
Instead if you waited for the second times soks come up and you hit reshuffle on your fifth try, then you have 470 stars available as well ( 120 + 400 - 50). So no difference.

In sum, if you manage to hit sok yesterday you should be off better. If you hit reshuffle yesterday, then no different.

Now, i was probably more than an exception by having to really open all presents and ending up 10 stars short. Most players should either hit sok or reshuffle earlier.

Hope that helps. And i hope i hit what gutmeister was talking about.

Alvadora, that is exactly the point. When you hit SoK first, you are strictly better off having played early. If you hit reshuffle first, you are exactly as well off as if you had waited. So by not playing, you lose the ability to be better off.

You're example was well phrased. I'm excited to see how ppl don't understand this!

 

[DeletedUser31498]

Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think the issue is the second SoK. The issue that I'm arguing is that you have a much better chance of getting at least 1 SoK if you wait and save your stars for the second time it shows up. And even if it was a 2nd SoK, you would still be better off waiting. Your examples are biased in their construction to fit your narrative.
I never plan my star spending based on trying to get 2 of anything. Unless, of course, it's at or near the end and I'm just spending them to get something for them.

You are wrong, the ENTIRE point is the advantage you get when going to the second one. If you never hit one, and hit reshuffle first every time, then surely it's easy to see that playing at any time doesnt matter.

 

[DeletedUser]

You are wrong, the ENTIRE point is the advantage you get when going to the second one. If you never hit one, and hit reshuffle first every time, then surely it's easy to see that playing at any time doesnt matter.

Whether you're going for 1 or 2, it doesn't matter. More stars give you more chances, and having more chances gives you better odds of hitting what you want. Using some now, then starting completely over a second time is clearly not a better strategy. I don't understand how anyone can not see that. But keep arguing about it. I'll be busy elsewhere.

 

[DeletedUser31498]

Whether you're going for 1 or 2, it doesn't matter. More stars give you more chances, and having more chances gives you better odds of hitting what you want. Using some now, then starting completely over a second time is clearly not a better strategy. I don't understand how anyone can not see that. But keep arguing about it. I'll be busy elsewhere.

lol ok.

Just please remember the next time SoK comes up, and you hit it, how many stars you waste finding reshuffle to start again. Then re-read Alvadora's post. Until you actually experience what we're talking about, I guess we'll table the discussion for a bit.

 

[Salsuero]

...that even Sal can understand...I hope....

There's something wrong with you. Stop involving me. You're insults are unnecessary. Thank you.

 

[DeletedUser31498]

There's something wrong with you. Stop involving me. You're insults are unnecessary. Thank you.

I know, it's just I think you're too smart to not understand the simple examples we've illustrated above. Hence, you must be a troll, and therefore condescending remarks aren't uncalled for

 

[Salsuero]

I know, it's just I think you're too smart to not understand the simple examples we've illustrated above. Hence, you must be a troll, and therefore condescending remarks aren't uncalled for

You're still insulting me. I'm close to reporting you for continuous harassment. That's your warning. Your viewpoint is not the only one and is certainly not only disputed by me. I don't agree with you and that is NOT an excuse for your continued insults. Stop.

 

[DeletedUser14354]

lol ok.

Just please remember the next time SoK comes up, and you hit it, how many stars you waste finding reshuffle to start again. Then re-read Alvadora's post. Until you actually experience what we're talking about, I guess we'll table the discussion for a bit.

If what Gutmeister is saying is the only two options available to people are:

1. Hit SoK today. Stop. wait until SoK appears a week from now, try to get it again then, or
2. Hit SoK today. Don't stop. Spend stars to find shuffle. Then try to get it again

Then, obviously, option #1 is preferable. It is preferable because there are only two possible outcomes to Option #2. The first is you hit the shuffle on your very next try...in which case you are in exactly the same spot as Option #1. Or you don't hit the shuffle on your very next try...in which case you are worse off than if you had taken Option #1. The question of how much worse off you are is a function of how many stars you spent on trying to find the shuffle.

However, there is no guarantee that Inno will offer the SoK at some later point in the event. Based on past events, Beta, etc., we suspect they will, but there is no guarantee. If you are worried about the possibility of it not being offered later, it is perfectly reasonable to take your shot now.And, yes, if you don't use them, you are likely to have more stars later on. That increases your odds of coming away with a SoK on that later day.

If the question is, how do I maximize the chances of getting exactly 2 SoK out of this event, the answer ultimately depends on whether you expect them to offer it later. If you think they will, the best odds would have been to pass yesterday and wait until later in the event. If you are unsure, you would have used all your stars yesterday (and probably bought more).

 

[DeletedUser27023]

I'm almost positive that isn't true. I believe the presents randomize every time you close and reopen the event window. The only thing that stays the same is the ones you've already won vs. the ones that are still hidden. I may be wrong, but I'm pretty sure I'm right on this one point.

We have no way to prove it one way or the other. What I’m trying to say is that whatever has been exposed is exposed. Provided you don’t touch anything till the SoK comes around again, everything you’ve already opened will stay in place.

 

[Salsuero]

We have no way to prove it one way or the other. What I’m trying to say is that whatever has been exposed is exposed. Provided you don’t touch anything till the SoK comes around again, everything you’ve already opened will stay in place.

I don't understand what you mean? Are you saying that the presents don't refresh daily? Do you mean to say that you could open all presents other than the Shuffle All and have run out of stars, then just not open any presents for the rest of the event until the SoK comes up again... and the SoK will be there ready to opened on a 50/50 between that and the Shuffle All? That's an interesting concept. I would love to know if someone has actually tried it... or if the game just randomizes since the daily prize is part of a master reset and it could literally be any of 18 prizes inserted under those last two presents. I would imagine one would have to be a Shuffle All, since the board would require it to restart... I just figured the board automatically reset every day with a new board and all new prizes. Interesting consideration. In reality, the SoK has come up at least twice in every main event I've played in since joining the game and it showed up in beta more than once, so I'm really not concerned about it not showing up again. It's Inno's biggest moneymaker... they seem to like to try to make it pay off for them more than once in these events. I'm sure that's why it came up so early... so they could spread it out far enough to get people to their next paycheck at work!

 

[DeletedUser14354]

Are you saying that the presents don't refresh daily?

The board refreshes every day.