DeletedUser11571
Well I just did the 20% shot 10 times and won nothing. So there's that.
If you look at the odds on the 20% shot : You take the chance that you’ve already got the prize, added to the quantity of the chance you haven’t already got it * the chances you’ll get it this time. That gives you the odds you’ll get it by the # of times you’ve tried. Here’s how it looks;
0 + 1(.2) = .2 chance of hitting shot on 1st shot(20%)
.2 + .8(.2) = .36 - 2nd shot(36%)
.36 + .64(.2) = .488 – 3rd shot(48.8%)
.488 + .512(.2) = .5904 – 4th
.5904 + .4096(.2) = .67232 – 5th
.67232 + .32768(.2) = .737856 – 6th
.737856 + .262144(.2) = 0.7902848 – 7th
. 7902848 + 0.2097152(.2) = 0.83222784 – 8th
.83222784 + 0.16777216(.2) = 0.865782272 – 9th
.865782272 + 0.134217728(.2) = 0.8926258176 – 10th
0.8926258176 + 0.1073741824(.2) = 0.91410065408 – 11th
0.91410065408 + 0.08589934592(.2) = 0.931280523264 – 12th
0.931280523264 + 0.068719476736(.2) = 0.9450244186112 – 13th
0.9450244186112 + 0.0549755813888(.2) = 0.95601953488896 – 14th
0.95601953488896 + 0.04398046511104(.2) = 0.964815627911168 – 15th
0.964815627911168 + 0.035184372088832(.2) = 0.9718525023289344 – 16th
0.9718525023289344 + 0.0281474976710656(.2) = 0.9774820018631475 – 17th
0.9774820018631475 + 0.0225179981368525(.2) = 0.981985601490518 – 18th
0.981985601490518 + 0.018014398509482(.2) = 0.9855884811924144 – 19th
0.9855884811924144 + 0.0144115188075856(.2) = 0.9884707849539315 - 20th
.9884707849539315 + 0.0115292150460685(.2) = 0.9907766279631452 – 21st
So by the 14th shot there’s a 95.6% chance you’ve hit the shot. Or a 4.4% chance you haven’t hit the shot. So about 1 in 24 times you try for the 20% shot, it will take more then 14 shots. You should make the 20% shot more than 100 hundred times before it takes 21 shots to hit. Another way to look at it is if you take 20 shots per day, all on the 20% shot, it would be about 4 days on average before you needed more than 10 shots to make the shot(I could do this math but nah). It seems to me their averages on everything are messed up in this game. It just can’t be right. Someone at inno needs to retake a math class.