FoE Soccer Cup 2016 - Feedback

[DeletedUser11571]

Well I just did the 20% shot 10 times and won nothing. So there's that.

If you look at the odds on the 20% shot : You take the chance that you’ve already got the prize, added to the quantity of the chance you haven’t already got it * the chances you’ll get it this time. That gives you the odds you’ll get it by the # of times you’ve tried. Here’s how it looks;


0 + 1(.2) = .2 chance of hitting shot on 1st shot(20%)

.2 + .8(.2) = .36 - 2nd shot(36%)

.36 + .64(.2) = .488 – 3rd shot(48.8%)

.488 + .512(.2) = .5904 – 4th

.5904 + .4096(.2) = .67232 – 5th

.67232 + .32768(.2) = .737856 – 6th

.737856 + .262144(.2) = 0.7902848 – 7th

. 7902848 + 0.2097152(.2) = 0.83222784 – 8th

.83222784 + 0.16777216(.2) = 0.865782272 – 9th

.865782272 + 0.134217728(.2) = 0.8926258176 – 10th

0.8926258176 + 0.1073741824(.2) = 0.91410065408 – 11th

0.91410065408 + 0.08589934592(.2) = 0.931280523264 – 12th

0.931280523264 + 0.068719476736(.2) = 0.9450244186112 – 13th

0.9450244186112 + 0.0549755813888(.2) = 0.95601953488896 – 14th

0.95601953488896 + 0.04398046511104(.2) = 0.964815627911168 – 15th

0.964815627911168 + 0.035184372088832(.2) = 0.9718525023289344 – 16th

0.9718525023289344 + 0.0281474976710656(.2) = 0.9774820018631475 – 17th

0.9774820018631475 + 0.0225179981368525(.2) = 0.981985601490518 – 18th

0.981985601490518 + 0.018014398509482(.2) = 0.9855884811924144 – 19th

0.9855884811924144 + 0.0144115188075856(.2) = 0.9884707849539315 - 20th

.9884707849539315 + 0.0115292150460685(.2) = 0.9907766279631452 – 21st


So by the 14th shot there’s a 95.6% chance you’ve hit the shot. Or a 4.4% chance you haven’t hit the shot. So about 1 in 24 times you try for the 20% shot, it will take more then 14 shots. You should make the 20% shot more than 100 hundred times before it takes 21 shots to hit. Another way to look at it is if you take 20 shots per day, all on the 20% shot, it would be about 4 days on average before you needed more than 10 shots to make the shot(I could do this math but nah). It seems to me their averages on everything are messed up in this game. It just can’t be right. Someone at inno needs to retake a math class.

 

[DeletedUser9433]

One attempt on the 5% shot a few minutes ago, got 880 cups so it does average out across the worlds as some of you are cursed the same number of us are equally blessed.

 

[DeletedUser8420]

If you look at the odds on the 20% shot : You take the chance that you’ve already got the prize, added to the quantity of the chance you haven’t already got it * the chances you’ll get it this time. That gives you the odds you’ll get it by the # of times you’ve tried. Here’s how it looks;


......

So by the 14th shot there’s a 95.6% chance you’ve hit the shot. Or a 4.4% chance you haven’t hit the shot. So about 1 in 24 times you try for the 20% shot, it will take more then 14 shots. You should make the 20% shot more than 100 hundred times before it takes 21 shots to hit. Another way to look at it is if you take 20 shots per day, all on the 20% shot, it would be about 4 days on average before you needed more than 10 shots to make the shot(I could do this math but nah). It seems to me their averages on everything are messed up in this game. It just can’t be right. Someone at inno needs to retake a math class.

ok as it has been pointed out more then once....your chances of hitting does NOT increase by the number of times you take the shot, the 20% chance is just that. EVERY shot you take supposedly gives you a 20% chance of hitting it. IT is ALL by chance no increase % because you keep trying.

 

[Algona]

Also note , If you move too fast INNO will penalize you one day of supply production by forcing you to do an extra quest of 4 -24 hour productions.

Hmmm. Interesting. If I go too fast through the quests, I get an extra quest? How is that a penalty? It's five more Shots! Seems like a reward to me.

Easy to work around. Set up four Bronze production buildings, set them for 24 hours, do not collect until you get the extra quest. and you are right back in business. I wonder if INNO set this up poorly and I can trigger this multiple times?

EDIT: If I had posted that, I would have erased it too, Cassaundrea.

 

[DeletedUser9433]

ok as it has been pointed out more then once....your chances of hitting does NOT increase by the number of times you take the shot, the 20% chance is just that. EVERY shot you take supposedly gives you a 20% chance of hitting it. IT is ALL by chance no increase % because you keep trying.

Cass, you are misinterpreting Joe's math as it is indeed correct and doesn't contradict the 20% chance per shot.

 

[DeletedUser25950]

is player created and maintained, as is all of the FoE wiki. Inno's got nothing to do with it, and can order their event quests however they please.

Then INNO did not need to post a link to the wiki for a description on this event. In this case, it made it look official, therefore misleading.

 

[cbalto1927]

You did. Many of us are not this lucky. I have 625 cups, have bought nothing and have wasted 220 diamonds I believe.

agreed., learned this hard lesson when i blew 1700 diamonds on the 5 and 10 percent chances. From now on i would play it safe to choose the 100 percent chance for 10 cups. 280 cups a day isnt bad for 24 shots.

 

[DeletedUser20367]

Hmmm. Interesting. If I go too fast through the quests, I get an extra quest? How is that a penalty? It's five more Shots! Seems like a reward to me.

Easy to work around. Set up four Bronze production buildings, set them for 24 hours, do not collect until you get the extra quest. and you are right back in business. I wonder if INNO set this up poorly and I can trigger this multiple times?

EDIT: If I had posted that, I would have erased it too, Cassaundrea.

They did the same thing last year in the Summer Event. I remember getting 2 or 3 'produce x 24 hour productions' quests that gave 1 wheel ticket if you did the quests 'too fast'. Was new to the game and didn't know the blacksmith trick then. Will be ready this year.

 

[Susannah the Good]

I have two cities - one PME and one HMA. I have noticed that the lower age city wins at about twice the rate as the advanced city.

Also, one would think that these prizes cost FoE money! Why so stingy with decent prizes? Only a couple of days in and I'm already bored with this guy stumbling over the ball almost every time he gets near it. There's no way to apply any skill or strategy - just dumb luck that seems to be slanted against the higher age player.

 

[DeletedUser9433]

I have two cities - one PME and one HMA. I have noticed that the lower age city wins at about twice the rate as the advanced city.

Also, one would think that these prizes cost FoE money! Why so stingy with decent prizes? Only a couple of days in and I'm already bored with this guy stumbling over the ball almost every time he gets near it. There's no way to apply any skill or strategy - just dumb luck that seems to be slanted against the higher age player.

First of all your sample size is way to small to make that deduction. Next if you aren't winning in your higher age city that likely means other people in your hood of a higher age are winning so again your conclusion has no real basis.

 

[Ylisaveta]

Hmmm. Interesting. If I go too fast through the quests, I get an extra quest? How is that a penalty? It's five more Shots! Seems like a reward to me.

Easy to work around. Set up four Bronze production buildings, set them for 24 hours, do not collect until you get the extra quest. and you are right back in business. I wonder if INNO set this up poorly and I can trigger this multiple times?

In beta, the last quest repeats. I've done it 3 times now.

 

[DeletedUser14197]

I have two cities - one PME and one HMA. I have noticed that the lower age city wins at about twice the rate as the advanced city.

Also, one would think that these prizes cost FoE money! Why so stingy with decent prizes? Only a couple of days in and I'm already bored with this guy stumbling over the ball almost every time he gets near it. There's no way to apply any skill or strategy - just dumb luck that seems to be slanted against the higher age player.

I have 6 cities and my lowest age city also does the best. I have wondered the same thing.

 

[Algona]

I have one city and my lowest age city does the best!

Glarg, you're only allowed to post one tinfoil link per thread, too bad you used it already. Got something else appropriate?

 

[DeletedUser20367]

I have 6 cities and my lowest age city also does the best. I have wondered the same thing.

My lowest Age city is doing the worst of my 6.

 

[DeletedUser10415]

I have one city and my lowest age city does the best!

Glarg, you're only allowed to post one tinfoil link per thread, too bad you used it already. Got something else appropriate?

I have 10 cities and have used the same strategy with all of them. 3 Iron Age cities. 1 EMA city. 1 LMA city, 4 Colonial Age cities, and 1 Future city. They range in cups from 3.7k to 35. Both the 3.7k cup city and the 35 cup city are Iron Age.

 

[DeletedUser8152]

My low age city is doing better but it is very apparent that's because my hoodies in the lower age world are much less on-the-ball.

 

[DeletedUser25297]

I'm going to pass on this event. I'm getting tired of these random shots with odds that are even lower than stated. If I want to gamble, I can go to Vegas and play slots. This event stinks and takes up too much time.

 

[Algona]

... I'm getting tired of these random shots with odds that are even lower than stated...

Do you have any data to back that up or just your own anecdotal evidence?

Glarg. mind if I ask the strategy you are using?

 

[DeletedUser25273]

My thoughts are since you can get automatically 10 Cups with the sure shot, you generally shouldn't take the chance unless you expect to average at least 10 from it, so that would be 20% worth 50, 10% worth 100, or 5% worth 200, if it is less, you should generally stay away. Since the values change somewhat unpredictably over time, but from above, you can always get 10 cups per shot, you generally want to hold onto your shots until you can do better, or if a prize you want is up. The one exception to not taking shots worth an expect less than 10, would be if you are going to take several shots, and with the increase per miss, the later shots will be worth more than 10, you can take the earlier shots that have an expected value of less than 10.

If you see a shot being worth a lot (seems most likely the 5% shot), you may want use your shots packages to take shots to try and win it.

 

[DeletedUser10415]

Glarg. mind if I ask the strategy you are using?

Nope. I don't mind at all.