Blueprints Aren't Random

[Volodya]

Ok, people are missing that I am level 11 with 17 already unlocked. My question pertains to if anyone else experienced anything similar and if it's a way of them getting us to spend diamonds.

Inno has never confirmed this--and they won't--but a lot of players have long-suspected that there is at least one rare bp for a given gb and often another that's scarce. I've certainly experienced this myself, often enough that it's really unlikely it's merely a statistical fluke. It also seems that the hard-to-find prints vary from player to player; i.e., the rare print on my Arc is the top right corner, but other players will be looking for prints in different positions. Of course this is a strategy to increase diamond sales, but it seems like a perfectly reasonable and fair one since the missing prints will turn up eventually.

 

[Volodya]

There is a rarity in bps as well as in goods...it's a design to influence diamond use...And the rarity is different for each player. Every player I talked to noticed this same rarity in every GB...not one could say they had an even amount which is just as random. For the hell of it, I built my Colisseum and ejected all the levels then traded dupes until I had four singles left. Over time the disparity continued, just with a different single bp, but months of GE and RC's just continues the trend with one bp being extremely rare. Will INNO ever admit it...? No. Can anybody say they have an even amount (or close to it) in large numbers on any GB...?

I see you made pretty much every point I just did, stealing my ideas two days before I even had them! Lol.

 

[DeletedUser31498]

As Gutmeister calculated for you, the odds of you having the disparity you described in BPs for that particular GB is 4%. Now, ask yourself how many GBs you have? Does that same disparity exist with ALL of them? Or are you just focused on this particular disparity. This is important because, if you have 10 GBs (reasonable for someone that indicated he/she was playing for 2 years), then the odds of you having a disparity like this for a single GB is better than 50%.

Of course there are people that have run into the same situation with one particular GB.

From a mathematical point of view, it would be far more surprising if people WEREN'T running into this issue.

Ummm, didn't you just re-write all my points (except you said 10 GB instead of 15?) lol:
your distribution is actually exceedingly close to "average." As in, if you had exactly the same number of every BP, then to me, THAT is demonstrating it's not random.
Further, people only mention the GB where they notice this "discrepancy". Given you need to be pretty advanced to have that many BPs in a GB, I'm guessing these people have lots of prints on 15 GBs at least? So over 15 GBs, and hundreds of prints of which you're 1/9 to get one, idk your particular case isn't an anecdote I would note.

 

[Volodya]

It is completely random. As a matter of fact just today I was having the same problem with my CDM.

I really doubt that it's random. Too many players have experienced this same phenomenon, including folks who give every indication of understanding how probability works. That doesn't mean I think it's a "conspiracy" on Inno's part as someone alleged upthread, just a perfectly reasonable tactic to increase diamond sales.

 

[DeletedUser31498]

Volodya, like I said, across that many players, you only hear about the ones who experience a problem. I have had no problem with my Arc. I got all 9 prints out of like 16 BPs I think, pretty awesome if you ask me.

There's a lot of players, with a lot of GBs, and yes, someone needs to be the "one in a million" unlucky person. And THAT person is going to complain, and insist it's unfair. That's how the numbers work.

If a majority of people experience this "4%" of bad luck that the OP did, that's something. Cherry picking the 5 people in your guild who also mention it isn't. Sorry, but I'm not convinced yet.

 

[DeletedUser31498]

I really doubt that it's random. Too many players have experienced this same phenomenon, including folks who give every indication of understanding how probability works. That doesn't mean I think it's a "conspiracy" on Inno's part as someone alleged upthread, just a perfectly reasonable tactic to increase diamond sales.

And sorry, but unless these people have obtained an unbiased sample (as in not just, "I know 20 people who also complained out of 50"), then those people really don't understand how probability works.

 

[Salsuero]

That doesn't mean I think it's a "conspiracy" on Inno's part as someone alleged upthread, just a perfectly reasonable tactic to increase diamond sales.

Tomato, tomahto. One man's conspiracy is another man's perfectly reasonable tactic.

 

[Salsuero]

Sorry, but I'm not convinced yet.

Statistically-speaking, if you trade 2:1 long enough, you will eventually get the print you want, assuming you have enough to trade with. Statistically-speaking, if you win enough BP rewards and collect enough BPs via aid, incidents, GE, etc., you will get all 9 prints. Statistically-speaking, some people can be lucky and hit the "rare" BP once in a while out of rarity order and make it seem (or perhaps not even fathom) that there is no rarity. Play long enough and you will notice that one BP tends to hit much less frequently than the rest. However, keep playing, and you will eventually hit that one as well and maybe get lucky a few times to hit it enough to make it seem like it isn't rare. It would make much more logical sense to make one BP a little bit more rare than the rest if you sell BPs for diamonds. Just because you don't think it's true... or you haven't seen the evidence... doesn't mean it's not true. I've seen it on pretty much every one of my GBs. Sometimes they even out a bit due to luck, but the rarity happens enough (in my opinion) and the logic of diamond sale motives is there.

 

[Freshmeboy]

As I have said before, can anyone come forward and honestly say they a GB with relatively equal amounts of bps in large numbers from say, a Babel or ND they aren't building (but doesn't stop INNO from giving you more in case you change your mind)..?

 

[Salsuero]

As I have said before, can anyone come forward and honestly say they a GB with relatively equal amounts of bps in large numbers from say, a Babel or ND they aren't building (but doesn't stop INNO from giving you more in case you change your mind)..?

Rarity doesn't have to be a forever case. If you have all 9 prints except for one, and you keep trying to get that 9th print, but are constantly being given everything but that print, you may just get fed up and pay diamonds. This happens all the time. However, yes... eventually... you will hit that 9th print. With some luck, this may happen sooner than later. I still feel like the rarity, even if it's only slight, is there. It's enough to entice you to buy diamonds, but not necessarily enough to cause a serious uproar. I do think that once you get enough prints (several hundreds to thousands) as is common on GBs such as the Arc, you may start to see the disparity become more obvious. With small numbers of prints, it's harder to see... except when you're trying to hunt for that 9th one specifically. I think everyone notices that one. Maybe I'm wrong, but like I said earlier... it makes diamond-spending motivation rise when you program a "subtle" rarity into something that asks you to pay diamonds to complete.

 

[Volodya]

As I have said before, can anyone come forward and honestly say they a GB with relatively equal amounts of bps in large numbers from say, a Babel or ND they aren't building (but doesn't stop INNO from giving you more in case you change your mind)..?

A bit of anecdotal evidence for the case for rarity (I know that's the opposite of what you were asking for. We're in agreement on this freshmeboy; your post is just a convenient hook for mine): I've never built the Rain Forest Project. For 8 of the prints, I have quantities ranging from 11-16. I have only 4 of the 9th bp. I could offer similar disparate numbers for the Colosseum and other gbs I've never built. Sure, my experiences by themselves are the epitome of small sample size, but when repeated over and over the numbers become significant.

 

[Algona]

As I have said before, can anyone come forward and honestly say they a GB with relatively equal amounts of bps in large numbers from say, a Babel or ND they aren't building (but doesn't stop INNO from giving you more in case you change your mind)..?

The number of BPs of each GB I have not built. Colosseum 12 -17. Deal, 24 35. Hafia 28-37, ND 10 - 23, SBC 18-43, SN 5-17, Hab 6-15.

Make of the data what you will.

 

[DeletedUser]

Statistically though, sharing the fact that you've opened up 17 levels without trading is actually quite meaningful.

Here is the main point that refutes the original post's allegations of non-random BPs. So instead of having gotten 14, 12, 11, 11, 10, 8, 5, 5, 0 BPs as put forth in the original post, he instead has gotten 22, 20, 19, 19, 18, 16, 13, 13, 8 BPs. This means that instead of getting 0 of the one BP out of 76 BPs acquired, or 0%, he has actually gotten 8 out of 148, or 5.4%. If they were distributed equally, he would have acquired 16 of each up to this point, rounding down. So his highest BP accumulated is 6 above the average, and his lowest (which he is currently out of) is 8 below the average. With the others spread pretty evenly between the two. That sounds exactly like the definition of random to me. Makes a huge difference to say you've gotten zero of a BP, when you've actually gotten a decent number of them. Case closed.

 

[Salsuero]

That sounds exactly like the definition of random to me.

It appears random, but in order to create rarity in one place, you have to put those BPs somewhere else, so the game randomly picks one of the other 8 slots to put new BPs to keep a "slight" rarity for one slot. It naturally grows a few others higher, making it look like a standard randomness, but could easily be the result of programming.

 

[DeletedUser14354]

It appears random, but in order to create rarity in one place, you have to put those BPs somewhere else, so the game randomly picks one of the other 8 slots to put new BPs to keep a "slight" rarity for one slot. It naturally grows a few others higher, making it look like a standard randomness, but could easily be the result of programming.

Again, you are assuming an underlying algorithm that dictates one BP out of every set of 9 will be determined to be "scarce." The fact that people have a mismatch is not evidence of that underlying randomness. It could equally be explained by random distribution.

What the OP and those that agree with him are really demonstrating is perception bias. The person that ends up with 10 BPs for each of the 9 spots isn't on the forum complaining about a lack of randomness. The person that ends up with 12 of the first 8 BPs and none of the last one is the one that ends up complaining.

There are many aspects of this game that are influenced by probability. The helping hands bonus, the appearance of relics, the rarity of those relics, the distribution of BPs, the special events, etc. If you search the forums, you will see multiple threads on each of these aspects of the game. Those threads all have the same theme....i.e., someone complaining about how the game is "rigged." Why is that?

 

[DeletedUser14354]

It also seems that the hard-to-find prints vary from player to player; i.e., the rare print on my Arc is the top right corner, but other players will be looking for prints in different positions.

It would seem odd that you find this "fact" to be proof of the conspiracy, as it would seem to be further proof of the random nature of this. The stronger evidence would be if EVERYONE reported the same position to be the one they have fewer of.

 

[DeletedUser31498]

Statistically-speaking, if you trade 2:1 long enough, you will eventually get the print you want, assuming you have enough to trade with. Statistically-speaking, if you win enough BP rewards and collect enough BPs via aid, incidents, GE, etc., you will get all 9 prints. Statistically-speaking, some people can be lucky and hit the "rare" BP once in a while out of rarity order and make it seem (or perhaps not even fathom) that there is no rarity. Play long enough and you will notice that one BP tends to hit much less frequently than the rest. However, keep playing, and you will eventually hit that one as well and maybe get lucky a few times to hit it enough to make it seem like it isn't rare. It would make much more logical sense to make one BP a little bit more rare than the rest if you sell BPs for diamonds. Just because you don't think it's true... or you haven't seen the evidence... doesn't mean it's not true. I've seen it on pretty much every one of my GBs. Sometimes they even out a bit due to luck, but the rarity happens enough (in my opinion) and the logic of diamond sale motives is there.

"I've seen it on pretty much every one of my GBs."

Sal, I think you're kind of proving my point from earlier. you can't have the same amount of every single BP, I really dont think you understand randomness, especially when there are 9 BPs.

You have thousands of Arc prints. If you can give me a sample of several thousand across all GBs (not cherry picking the ONE or TWO out of 30 that seem weird) we can actually solve the question of, "is this random or not really 1/9 chance each). Statistics requires real unbiased samples, and your verbiage tells me its very biased.

 

[Salsuero]

Again, you are assuming an underlying algorithm that dictates one BP out of every set of 9 will be determined to be "scarce."

Yes... yes, I am.

The fact that people have a mismatch is not evidence of that underlying randomness. It could equally be explained by random distribution.

Yes... yes, it could.

What the OP and those that agree with him are really demonstrating is perception bias.

No... no, not necessarily. Since we don't have access to the source code, EITHER ONE OF US could actually be correct.

There are many aspects of this game that are influenced by probability.

It actually makes sense to build in a rarity when you are charging diamonds for something from a monetized standpoint. I'm sticking with my opinion. You're welcome to yours.

 

[Salsuero]

Sal, I think you're kind of proving my point from earlier. you can't have the same amount of every single BP, I really dont think you understand randomness, especially when there are 9 BPs.

I think you should probably stop attacking my intellect just because you don't agree with my conclusions. It's getting quite old.

 

[Volodya]

It would seem odd that you find this "fact" to be proof of the conspiracy, as it would seem to be further proof of the random nature of this. The stronger evidence would be if EVERYONE reported the same position to be the one they have fewer of.

I don't think it's any sort of "conspiracy." I think it's a perfectly reasonable and fair business decision on Inno's part. If I were them, making one or two bps scarcer than the others is precisely what I would do.