Exposing the attrition lie!

[captain987]

They even stated very plainly that the attrition will be dynamic from now on about 4 months ago. The reason why you lose more attrition from fighting in a gang is because those are the triggers for the "surge" attrition. A simple algo = If fights per minute > 1000 then attrition mod = 1.1 else Attrition mod = 1. Attrition = Attrition X attrition mod

Can you post a link to this announcement?

 

[Sharmon the Impaler]

Can you post a link to this announcement?

Go find it , it's when they announced the "new" GBG and it very clearly stated this exactly.

 

[Sharmon the Impaler]

Guild Battlegrounds Update 2023

These updates will be active right when the next championship starts, on thursday 28th of September! Hey there Forge Fans! It's been a while, we know! But we're excited to finally spill the beans on the new changes to Guild Battlegrounds. Read on to learn more about the new Championships...

forum.us.forgeofempires.com

"

Adjustable Attrition Cap​

We hope this change will serve to make the progression of battles more meaningful and discourage battle farming. The attrition cap we tested on beta not too long ago is back, but now – with a twist! We're introducing an adjustable cap starting at 80%, limiting the chance to avoid attrition. We want to keep this adjustable so that we can be responsive to your feedback and data if needed in future. We will also change the attrition to scale more linear (compared to exponential before) and increase the overall achievable attrition level. For negotiations, the Goods cost per level will also be adjusted in line with this. The increase will be way more signific towards the higher attrition levels. We hope this way attrition can remain dynamic and effective for the time being."

 

[captain987]

We hope this change will serve to make the progression of battles more meaningful and discourage battle farming. The attrition cap we tested on beta not too long ago is back, but now – with a twist! We're introducing an adjustable cap starting at 80%, limiting the chance to avoid attrition. We want to keep this adjustable so that we can be responsive to your feedback and data if needed in future. We will also change the attrition to scale more linear (compared to exponential before) and increase the overall achievable attrition level. For negotiations, the Goods cost per level will also be adjusted in line with this. The increase will be way more signific towards the higher attrition levels. We hope this way attrition can remain dynamic and effective for the time being."

The announcement has nothing to do with a "dynamic cap" or "surge attrition" that you mentioned. The adjustable element they are mentioning simply refers to GBG buildings. Is there another announcement where they were broached?

 

[UBERhelp1]

The announcement has nothing to do with a "dynamic cap" or "surge attrition" that you mentioned. The adjustable element they are mentioning simply refers to GBG buildings. Is there another announcement where they were broached?

Idk what Sharmon is talking about. There's been no such change to attrition.

 

[UBERhelp1]

Suffice to say, the p-values prove that Inno's claim of 500 fights per 100 attrition is false.

Then post them?

 

[jaymoney23456]

Guild Battlegrounds Update 2023

These updates will be active right when the next championship starts, on thursday 28th of September! Hey there Forge Fans! It's been a while, we know! But we're excited to finally spill the beans on the new changes to Guild Battlegrounds. Read on to learn more about the new Championships...

forum.us.forgeofempires.com

"

Adjustable Attrition Cap​

We hope this change will serve to make the progression of battles more meaningful and discourage battle farming. The attrition cap we tested on beta not too long ago is back, but now – with a twist! We're introducing an adjustable cap starting at 80%, limiting the chance to avoid attrition. We want to keep this adjustable so that we can be responsive to your feedback and data if needed in future. We will also change the attrition to scale more linear (compared to exponential before) and increase the overall achievable attrition level. For negotiations, the Goods cost per level will also be adjusted in line with this. The increase will be way more signific towards the higher attrition levels. We hope this way attrition can remain dynamic and effective for the time being."

They were saying they may do an actual adjustment in the future. It is not saying that attrition will be secretly adjusted without any announcement if they were to change it.

 

[Sharmon the Impaler]

They were saying they may do an actual adjustment in the future. It is not saying that attrition will be secretly adjusted without any announcement if they were to change it.

"We are going to implement a system wide dynamic attrition cap but don;t worry players !!! We will not be using it to make you spend more money when the fighting gets really hard GbG , we are on your side not on the side of the accountants at ATG!!!." I have a bridge for sale in Brooklyn too if you believe that for a second.

 

[Ebeondi Asi]

I bought and sold that bridge several times over the years.. A great investment value .

 

[Dominator - X]

They even stated very plainly that the attrition will be dynamic from now on about 4 months ago. The reason why you lose more attrition from fighting in a gang is because those are the triggers for the "surge" attrition. A simple algo = If fights per minute > 1000 then attrition mod = 1.1 else Attrition mod = 1. Attrition = Attrition X attrition mod

They stated that it is adjustable. I think that would mean they would advertise any changes made, not just program it differently or allow a wide difference in actual % observed. No such change has been mentioned afaik, and it remains at 20%.

 

[NWWolverine]

Since Inno introduced the new GBG format, I’ve tested the real attrition gain versus Inno’s claims. Every day for the last 12 seasons, I went to 100 attrition and recorded the corresponding number of fights. I never negotiated, and all fights were done STRICTLY on sectors with sufficient support for a theoretical 80% reduction.
Mathematically, an 80% reduction (or 20% attrition gain) should yield 500 fights for 100 points of attrition. Counting the initial zero attrition on Thursday morning, every GBG season has 12 resets. Therefore, 12 x 100 = 1,200 attrition should result in 12 x 500 =6,000 fights, and 12 seasons 12 x 1,200 = 14,400 should yield 12 x 6,000 = 72,000 fights if the 80% claim is accurate.

View attachment 21349

This is just one example GBG, I have 11 more like it.

View attachment 21351

Results: The data clearly shows that Inno’s 80% reduction claim is false. Over the course of 12 seasons, I only averaged a 76% reduction. In fact, I only met or exceeded the 80% mark 31 times out of 144 days. Hence, I lost about 300 fights and spent an extra 60 attrition every season to reach the hypothetical 80% mark. It is not due to bad luck or a funky random generator but a systemic and statistically valid result.

The remaining question is whether Inno’s deception is deliberate or due to programming ineptitude. The answer is the latter, but the reason might be surprising. This message is getting too long, so I will post the explanation another time - just one hint: fight slowly, and avoid races where many of your guildmates help!

You need to continue this for the next 10 years and you'll find out that it all balances out...just be patient...just be patient...

 

[TotalTrash]

I've been reading the forums for years, but I rarely post, and there is a good reason for that. Any message critical of Inno will be shouted down by the same gaggle of sycophants.

Like this guy, who plainly lies about a non-existing announcement to discredit my data.

They even stated very plainly that the attrition will be dynamic from now on about 4 months ago. The reason why you lose more attrition from fighting in a gang is because those are the triggers for the "surge" attrition. A simple algo = If fights per minute > 1000 then attrition mod = 1.1 else Attrition mod = 1. Attrition = Attrition X attrition mod

Or this guy, who deliberately misquoted me.

The main reason that I am skeptical whenever I read claims that INNO is "lying" is I do not see a motive

Or this one, who won't believe the findings unless I meet a condition that is neither statistically necessary nor can ever be met.

Need to track many hundreds of players at least to come up with statistically significant numbers.

Or this person of limited horizon, who doesn't understand that infinite data points are not required to disprove a null hypothesis.

You need to continue this for the next 10 years and you'll find out that it all balances out...just be patient...just be patient...

Frankly, with a users like that, does it make sense to post long pages of graphs, formulas and data? The expression pearls before swine comes to mind, and I have wondered for years how many of you are actually on Inno's payroll. Just remember, kissing up neither makes the problems go away nor does it do the game any favors - quite the contrary!

 

[Galechade]

You need to continue this for the next 10 years and you'll find out that it all balances out...just be patient...just be patient...

So you're saying everything balances out after 10 years? How long after 10 years? I've been playing almost 11 and I'm still waiting. ‍

 

[Pericles the Lion]

I've been reading the forums for years, but I rarely post, and there is a good reason for that. Any message critical of Inno will be shouted down by the same gaggle of sycophants.

Like this guy, who plainly lies about a non-existing announcement to discredit my data.


Or this guy, who deliberately misquoted me.


Or this one, who won't believe the findings unless I meet a condition that is neither statistically necessary nor can ever be met.


Or this person of limited horizon, who doesn't understand that infinite data points are not required to disprove a null hypothesis.


Frankly, with a users like that, does it make sense to post long pages of graphs, formulas and data? The expression pearls before swine comes to mind, and I have wondered for years how many of you are actually on Inno's payroll. Just remember, kissing up neither makes the problems go away nor does it do the game any favors - quite the contrary!

Calling everyone that doesn't agree with you, or asks for more information so that they can make a decision, a "sycophant" doesn't help your case at all.

 

[WillyTwoShoes]

The main reason that I am skeptical whenever I read claims that INNO is "lying" is I do not see a motive.

I read your post and I don't want to take your entire post out of context by snipping this little bit to respond to. And I don't necessarily make any assertions as to Inno's integrity by this post.

However regards motives -

I can think of several reasons Inno may fiddle around with or undervalue stated attrition averages. Off the top of my head, it strikes me as a discrete way of throwing a monkey wrench into the scripting/bot rushing problem they have in the GBG venue.

 

[WillyTwoShoes]

I do have a question that is a bit off topic here.

This is the first time I have heard any references to avoiding "group fight rushing" as a ameliorative attrition tactic. Is that valid? Can anyone help me out with the reasons for it?

 

[WillyTwoShoes]

So you're saying everything balances out after 10 years? How long after 10 years? I've been playing almost 11 and I'm still waiting. ‍

I think there may have been more 'tongue in cheek' there than you gave the poster credit with.

 

[Pericles the Lion]

I do have a question that is a bit off topic here.

This is the first time I have heard any references to avoiding "group fight rushing" as a ameliorative attrition tactic. Is that valid? Can anyone help me out with the reasons for it?

It's news to me as well and no data was provided to support this assertion. Personally, I haven't noticed a difference in how fast my attrition climbs when I hit 20% sectors overnight (when I'm fighting with 4-5 mates) and when I fight during the peak hours with many more on the battlefield.

 

[Ebeondi Asi]

I do have a question that is a bit off topic here.

This is the first time I have heard any references to avoiding "group fight rushing" as a ameliorative attrition tactic. Is that valid? Can anyone help me out with the reasons for it?

It's one of those made up truths. Once someone believes in some odd coincidence, they tend to find it all the time. A fact of Human nature. Feel free to become a believer..

One other made up truth I have enjoyed laughing at... Is GE opening. Some few swear that no one in the Guild should play in the first half hour before opponents are chosen in GE opening morning, Because then you get 'easier' opponents !! I have heard this particular hogwash for years. My response is maybe we (As a strong Guild) should seek stronger opponents... LoL
None of my Current Guilds have anyone still touting this notion. (thankfully)

 

[Angry.Blanket]

It's one of those made up truths. Once someone believes in some odd coincidence, they tend to find it all the time. A fact of Human nature. Feel free to become a believer..

One other made up truth I have enjoyed laughing at... Is GE opening. Some few swear that no one in the Guild should play in the first hour before opponents are chosen in GE opening morning, Because then you get 'easier' opponents !! I have heard this particular hogwash for years. My response is maybe we (As a strong Guild) should seek stronger opponents... LoL
None of my Current Guilds have anyone still touting this notion. (thankfully)

You do realise that the princes and the pea was made up dont you ?