How is this event different from any other? You press a button and a little fellow kicks a ball and the outcome is random... or you press a button and a card turns over and the outcome is random... or you press a button and a wheel spins and the outcome is random... or you press a button and open a chest and the outcome is random... I see no difference besides the theme.
Actually, in other recent special events (going back over the last calendar year), such as: 2016 Easter Event, 2015 Winter Event, 2015 Summer Casino Event, this is the progression of events:
- Player completes a quest, or time passes (currency bar) to acquire special event gambling currency.
- Player spends special event gambling currency on one gamble. Some events offer more than one gamble, where each gamble costs a different amount of special event currency, each with a different % chance at a reward.
- The gamble results in winning some type of prize, out of a possible range of prizes. But for every gamble is some kind of prize; however it might not be a prize the player wants.
- In some events, the player is given an option to straight up purchase some prizes, either with special event gambling currency or with diamonds. However, these straight-up purchase prices often prove very cost prohibitive for many players and taking the gamble is always the cheaper, though much more risky, option.
- In all events, the player is given an option to purchase special event gambling currency with diamonds.
In the 2016 Soccer Cup Event, this is the progression of events:
- Player completes a quest, or time passes (currency bar) to acquire special event gambling currency.
- Player spends special event gambling currency (shot attempts) on one gamble. And just like other events, this one offers more than one gamble, where each gamble costs a different amount of special event currency, each with a different % chance at a reward.
- However, unlike other special events, the gamble does not and cannot result in winning any type of prize out of any range of possible prizes. Instead, this first gamble merely offers the player a chance to score a second type of special event currency (cups).
- Player spends this second special event gambling currency (cups) on one gamble (golden chest) to have a chance at scoring actual prizes.
- As in some other events, the player is also given an option to straight up purchase some prizes, with this second special event gambling currency (cups). However, these straight-up purchase prizes randomly show up every 6 hours. Furthermore, the items most players will covet often prove very cost prohibitive for many players.
- As in all other events, the player is given an option to purchase the first type of special event gambling currency (shots) with diamonds, but not the second type which actually leads to scoring prizes (cups).
So I believe the key difference, and issue, that many players are trying to express in this topic is that we earn one special event resource through skilled play or dedicated participation (shots), but that only gets us a random chance to score yet another special event resource—the one that really counts (cups). And there is no way a player can skillfully, or even by spending diamonds, to significantly increase their risk/reward ratio to scoring an actual prize the player might covet.
The counter argument to these player's reactions will be that a player can always spend shots on the 100% option. However, the risk/reward ratio of this "gamble" is so low in comparison to the cost of most prizes players will likely covet, that the 100% option does not even seem feasible enough to participate at that level. Again I remind everyone that this is the subjective perspective of many players, and as such is open to debate.
However, there is also a mathematical anomaly at work here: compounding probabilities.
Probability A is the a random chance a player has to score a sizable pile of cups. (I will exclude the 100% shot chance from this part of the discussion, since it can never score a player a
sizable pile of cups—this scoring option is always fixed at 10 cups, while with all other options the prize of cups goes up every time a player misses a shot.
Probability B is the chance a player can log in and spend cups when a prize that he or she actually covets is available for sale, or the random chance to score a prize the player covets from the Golden Chest.
A player's total probably of scoring a prize he or she covets is then = Probability A * Probability B, which is a compound probability.
Here's a refresher of 6th grade mathematics:
Let's say to win Probability A you must roll a 1 one a 6-sided die, this means you have a 1-in-6 chance, or 16.67% , of winning Probability A.
Let's also say to win Probability B you must roll a 1 one a 6-sided die, this means you have a 1-in-6 chance, or 16.67% , of winning Probability B.
But not so fast!
In order to even attempt Probability B, you must have already won at Probability A (you must acquire enough cups to even attempt Probability B). Going back to our six-side dice examples, this means a player must roll snake eyes in order to score a single prize he or she covets. And that compounded probability is (1/6)^2 = (1/36) = (16.67%)^2 = 2.78%.
This is the actual, factual mathematical anomaly people are trying to express.
Now before anyone gets on the tear-the-theory apart bandwagon. I clearly have simplified the above example to use a 1-in-6 chance (six-sided die) for both Probability A and Probability B. Of course, these are not the actual % chances offered in the game. They are only used as simple examples, which most people can relate to, to show how a compounded probability can dramatically reduce a player's chance of winning something they covet.
Many humans will instinctively and intuitively arrive at a conclusion that the gambles offered in this event offer them no realistic chance of success. And this is the underlying root cause of many of the complaints many players are making about this event, in contrast to other events. The compounded probability tends to make many players view the event as more of a gamble, because mathematically it is more of gamble, because it takes 2 gambles, not one to score any prize at all.
Now again, I stress that what the chances of each probabilities should be is debatable, and the human perception of: "is the game fair" , or: is the game rigged" is highly subjective.
But there is some underlying mathematics, that when compared to the mathematics of other special events, lend credence to what some players feel about this event requiring more luck at gambling than skill at playing.
The odds are generally never in your favor.