UBERhelp1
Well-Known Member
Oof. That's rough. I was lucky to age up during the event in a hood of EMA noobs. Most still have spearfighter defenses. Even those that don't get crushed with units an age above with an attack boost.
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DeletedUser2606
DeletedUser36624
Chance of not getting a prize with a 5% chance of winning with 25 tickets = 27.7%. Incidentally, expected value is greater if you double when the pot on that one is over 400 florins. But there is still a 7.2% chance of not winning with 25 tickets. Ships drool, cups rule.
DeletedUser36624
A falerist is someone who collects medals.
lemur
Well-Known Member
I have won only one piece of the Piazza set, and that didn't happen until I had spent 7,000 Florins. The reason is obvious — the single-digit winning percentages of most of the prize chests.
I was thinking that the event was nothing more than miserly diamond bait. But then I won a fragment of a Victory Tower Shrink Kit, and now I'm happy.
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I was thinking that the event was nothing more than miserly diamond bait. But then I won a fragment of a Victory Tower Shrink Kit, and now I'm happy.
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Emberguard
Well-Known Member
Why stop at one age? If you have an Arc and lots of inventory FPs you could jump 3 ages ;D
Yeah got to agree of all the events it's my least favourite each year purely because of the 5% and 15% games. Only way to win on that is to either take advantage of someone elses misfortune or have so many tickets saved up that you're missing out on the hourly income. If they either removed those gambling for florins and just gave daily income -OR- made it so instead of competing with neighbours you're only competing with yourself for the pot then it'd be a much more enjoyable event for everyone
As it is instead of everyone getting base sets and most of lvl 2 if not a complete lvl 2 set you're more likely to have the majority miss out if they go for 5% each time. If they go for 100% they should get the base set just fine, 15% would depend on if they're able to use enough tickets each time to win as to whether it's worth it.
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DeletedUser6120
Last year the Carnival event was a favorite of mine, the buildings like the Masquerade Ball or the Gondola market were large, gorgeous and beautifully animated. And if you played regularly you were sure to get at least one or more. But this year they really ruined this event, from the very beginning. First the building are so small and not worth much. And you not only have to win 5 separate buildings to get a complete set, but then have to win 5 upgrades to get the better set! And what is the chance of winning all that, when all the winning percentages are in the single digits? ZERO. I have been playing every day, using every ticket and florin I could get, and yes, I even spent some diamonds. And I have not won a single building or a single upgrade. The only building that I have gotten is the mask vendor, which was awarded in the quest line. It is tiny, unattractive and worth nothing. I have stopped playing the event so actively, and most of the people in my guild have done the same. And to judge by the "League" , a lot of people in the neighborhood are not playing the event all that much. I will definitely not be spending any more diamonds. The designers made the prizes far too small, unattractive and valueless, and made the odds of winning them far too high and way too difficult. why do the designers of this game always seem to shot themselves in the foot? They take an idea that is popular with the players, and successful during the events, and then ride it right off the rails. And then they probably sit around wondering why the idea failed. I am giving up on the Carnival event for this year, there is always another event coming along, hopefully a better one.
DeletedUser6120
I have to agree. I also ended up with a Grand Bridge that was only at a very low level because I could not win any of the upgrades. And the chances of getting this year's entire set, and all the upgrades for them, is nil. The odds are just way too long and I am afraid that a lot of people will end up with partial sets----which is nothing if not frustrating.
DeletedUser32824
I'm so glad to see the return of the Venice Canal.
RazorbackPirate
Well-Known Member
I agree, this is one of my least favorite events. However, we're all given the same amount of Florins, we're all given the same amount of Tickets, we all have the same 100%, 15%, and 5% chances at the games, and we all have the same chances with the chests. As such, I don't think having a better strategy than my neighbor is taking advantage of their misfortune. We're all given exactly the same fortune and the same chances of success.
I don't believe equal opportunity demands equal outcome. However if you want that, this event provides that too. Statistically, each piece will cost roughly 2,400 Florins. Always going for the most efficient % per Florin chest will lower this by a couple hundred Florins per piece. Converting each ticket received to 10 Florins with the 100% game coupled with the number of Florins we'll receive, guarantees almost everyone a complete lvl 2 set.
If anyone chooses to gamble instead, all bets are off and any Florins they lose is on them. If I subsequently win them by playing smarter, I've taken advantage of no one's misfortune, they're the ones putting down their Florins for me to win.
To maximize my chances of winning molta fiorini (lots of Florins) I'm playing this event completely different than any other event before. I'm going through the quests at a glacial pace and leaving ticket quests uncollected while sometimes waiting 10+ hours for more tickets to build on the bar. I'll then spend 1 ticket per hour 'seeding' the games to keep earning hourly tickets, while often waiting hours more for a pot of Florins worth going after.
It's been and continues to be a painful process, but I'm currently flush with Florins and only 2 - 3 more specials in each world for a complete lvl 2 Piazza set. I've yet to finish the first 33 quests in either world waiting to collect the tickets from quest 20 in one world and quest 29 in the other. With 16 days and many more quests to go, once I've completed a lvl 2 set in each world, I'll start working on a stretch goal of a complete level 1 for each city as well.
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Emberguard
Well-Known Member
When you say "lucky" is this out of choice or not able to keep up with quests?
DeletedUser13838
How does this guarantee work?
DeletedUser29623
I agree that they are handsome buildings, but their size was a drawback not a plus. I finally deleted the Gondola one because it was just too big for what it produces. Smaller buildings are better.
The wages of RNG are such that by using exactly the same strat in two different cities, I am only one upgrade away from a fully leveled set in One world and have only two upgrades and the mask vendor (via the quest line) in the other. It’s just very arbitrary and that’s frustrating, even when you know it’s a chance based event.
DeletedUser38138
To comment again. I had 3 of the buildings and one upgrade after the first 11K florins spent after completing the main questline. I used over 3K in florins with no luck at winning any of the buidings also on the main questline.
I am on the daily quests and am moving at a very slow pace now. I was in the silver league but now in the bronze league. I won the clock tower and the clock tower upgrade on my first attempts at the chests today with only 500 florins to spend.
For those that are discouraged I would not give up because of frustration. Play it out til the end and you might get the pieces you need even if it is luck based.
I am on the daily quests and am moving at a very slow pace now. I was in the silver league but now in the bronze league. I won the clock tower and the clock tower upgrade on my first attempts at the chests today with only 500 florins to spend.
For those that are discouraged I would not give up because of frustration. Play it out til the end and you might get the pieces you need even if it is luck based.
Emberguard
Well-Known Member
A clock that's stuck is right twice a day. The guarantee is if you open enough chests eventually you'll win something. The amount of florins you gain from using the 100% game for tickets and completing the questline is such that you'd have to either be going for Gold / FP (red 140) chests when more efficient options for the price are available, not using the daily tickets or only ever get bad luck for the entire event to be in a position where you complete the event without getting a full lvl 2 set or very close to it (assuming you're able to be online when the prizes are on the DS).
Questline gives you two buildings. Bronze league gives you a third. As long as you're getting close to the full 24 hourly tickets per day you should have a fairly easy time to reach bronze league given the amount of players that seem to be giving up before the first week has ended.
Now as bronze league is a selection kit it wouldn't be too bad of an idea to go for 3 base pieces (+mask vendor from questline) in the first week prior to touching any upgrades from the DS. This will ensure you've got a full set and free up all florins to go purely for upgrades for the other 2 weeks or at least have some idea of how far off you are for completing the set.
DeletedUser36624
Can we see your math on this guarantee?
DeletedUser32824
This is what I'm doing! I've got like 4k Florins on deck (2500 from the quest reward) and am missing 2 more specials for a lvl 2 set of the mask vendor, apartments, and cafe (just the FP buildings). Going to go for 18 specials this event and see if I can make a 20 FP city block. I'm 5 in and only like 4 days into the event, so I think I can do it. I've won a couple 400+ florin pots and am holding out for higher! Last year I got one that was above 1k...still haven't seen higher than 600 in my hood.
RazorbackPirate
Well-Known Member
Do your own math.
Average the chest Florin cost, average the chest % chance, figure out the average number of Florins per piece. Count the total tickets multiply by ten (don't forget the hourly), count the total florins from quests, add the two numbers. Divide total Florins by average Florins per piece, and BINGO - There's your virtual guarantee.
Please share your findings with the group and don't forget to show you're work when you're done.
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DeletedUser29726
Math is that the average case is a level 2 set. That's not a guarantee. Nor even a virtual guarantee. That's about half of people that "do it right" without spending diamonds will finish it. Not that I have a problem with that - level 1 set is highly likely if you prioritise it before upgrades and already good enough to build whatever extra upgrades you manage. Variance is a bitch though.