[[the following is wrong]Before you start to build, check the starting Expansions and the nearby Expansions for Rocks. If there are too many nearby or in the starting area abort. Come back later and hope for a better start.[/wrong]
Let's get you started. Place 6 Shacks. Build 2 Axe Makers. Set the 2 Axe Makers for a 4 hour production 10 total Axes. While they are producing take a good hard look at your city and plan where you are going to put 9 more Expansions. When the Axe makers complete set them for 2 more 4 hour productions,, then place your first two Expansions. When the second Axe productions complete unlock Shrines.
While those Axe Makers are completing the first run let's talk strategy!!
And, well, I can't. I haven't finished my second Settlement yet, I don't have a strategy, just vague ideas and hints of ways to approach Settlements.
Throw away all concepts of a neat orderly well organized placid city with set production times. You'll have road mazes and constant jigsaws of rearranged rebuilt destroyed buildings unconnected housing and constantly shuffling moving deleting building rebuilding remodeling in no set order with no set plan.
It's gonna be chaos. You can improvise and hope you get through and eventually you'll have enough practice that you will finish on time on a regular basis. Maybe.
You have to plan ahead.
Start planning durirng those first 9 hours while those 2 Axe Makers are building and then producing the Goods for your first 2 Expansions and unlocking Shrines.
You know how long you have to complete the Settlement. You know you can't do tech without Goods, you know you can't do Goods without Copper. You know what it costs to buy Expansions and when you'll be able to buy them. You know how long it takes to make Goods, how many of which Goods you'll need in what order, which means you know hoe much Copper you need. You know the population you need to support the Copper and Goods productions. You know the build times.
You know everything you need and have the time to completely plan every phase of your Settlement development, Expansion placements, various layouts, production schedules, tech acquisitions, and Quest completion.
Nothing extraordinarily difficult here, just thinking and arithmetic. You'll still be constantly remodeling and rebuilding but if you use good planning tools and work it out in advance you can maximize production and minimize rebuilding times.
Expansions are the toughest decisions you'll make and I suspect will be the most debated aspect of Settlements. When do you unlock what Expansions and how many do you need? I went 3 Axe then 2 of the rest. Total 9 Expansions unlocked in both Settlements.
Collect Goods for a tech, replace Shrines and roads with Runestones and Totems (don;t forget build times!) to get needed Diplomacy for the tech, unlock the tech, check the Quest line, remodel the city to produce the Goods for the next tech.
Produce a little more Copper when you can until you have produced all you need for the entire Settlement. Then stop Copper production freeing up pop and space for Goods production.
Don;t over produce Goods, you know exactly what you need.
I'm finding I like Shrines vs Markets, adequate Copper production and a fast rebuild. Get used to rebuilding Shrines and Shacks, you'll be tearing them down to build lots of Totems to get the Diplomacy needed to unlock techs.
Mix Shacks and Huts as needed, quite often not be connected to roads.
I can't think of anything else at this time, I don;t have the experience yet to know what I am missing.