I understand percentages completely. I do not expect "cumulative" chances or anything like what you're ascribing to me. I am not at all clinging to the Gambler's Fallacy.
If I toss a coin 24 times, chances are that I'll get heads 12 times. Sure, I might get only 10 or 11 heads, or maybe 13-14 heads. If I only got 1 heads on 24 tosses, that would be very, very unusual - about 0.000012% chance of only one heads in 24 tosses, assuming a fair (50/50) coin.
If you do something that has a 16% chance of succeeding each time, and you do it 24 times, you'd expect 3-4 successes. The actual average is 3.84, but of course, there's no such thing as 0.84 of a success. Yes, you might get only 2 if you're unlucky, or maybe 5 if you're lucky. 0 or 1 would be very unlucky.
Especially when the chance of success is more than 16% some of the time - 18% or 20%.
As of this post, I am now up to 2 for 32. That's 6.25%. A little better, but still pretty far from 16-20%. Maybe I'm just really unlucky. What % are the rest of you getting?