Hoping someone with better math skills can help me with something. If I am only going for the daily special, which chest should I try, bronze, silver or gold? They all have different percentage chances. I currently have 600 lanterns. I don't care about the other stuff. The event buildings are my priority.
This isn't rocket science. The probability of the daily special in the three chests is 7%, 13%, and 25%. The chests cost 40 lanterns, 70 lanterns, and 120 lanterns. The costs in lanterns to get 1% chance are 40/7 = 5.7, 70/13 = 5.4, and 120/25 = 4.8. Gold is best. (It's actually even better than those numbers indicate, because buying 3 bronze chests only gives you a 19.6% chance, not a 21% chance, but I'm not showing the rocket science calculation for that). It also costs fewer lanterns per cherry blossom: 40/5 = 8 for bronze, 70/10 = 7 for silver, 120/20 = 6 for gold. Be smart and only buy gold.
Addendum: With your 600 lanterns, your odds of winning the daily special by buying gold chests are
first chest: .25 (1 - .75)
first two chests: .4375 (1 - .75^2)
first three chests: .5781 (1 - .75^3)
first four chests: .6836 (1 - .75^4)
five chests: .7627 (1 -.75^5)
Hmm ... I just read Algona's comment, and he's right that the chances of winning lanterns changes the odds ... but I think they even more strongly favor gold: A 12% of winning 200 lanterns is certainly better than a 15% chance of winning only 120 or a 20% chance of winning only 70.
Also, his math is off. It should be
Large Chest 76% (1-.75^5)
Medium Chest 67% (1-.87^8) (Actually, 8 mediums and 1 small = 69%)
Small Chest 66% (1-.93^15)