I'd bet they bet badly. ALWAYS bet on stupid. Stupid always wins. Like the Patriots. Or Golden State...
Yeah, you can't count on neighbors to do the stupid thing that benefits you though, unfortunately.
The game performance has gone to hell this morning — thanks, no doubt, to the new code (insufficiently tested, as usual) from the Carnival.
Thanks, InnoGames !!!!
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However, you can count on lemur to complain about the latest event.
I did have performance issues myself yesterday, much more than normal. However, the game seems to be running more smoothly since I emptied out my browser cache like I usually do when there's a game update.
Anyway, the key here to the Carnival is to bet smart. With the middle game, it's usually best to let the pot get to at least 120-140 Florins and then spend no more than 6 or 7 tickets to win the pot, because the chance of winning on the game is between 1 in 6 and 1 in 7. With the boats, I think it's about 300-350 where it starts being worth a gamble? The boat game is a 5% or a 1 in 20. Keep in mind it's on a bell curve, the more players take a risk at it, the greater chance that someone will win goes up, but eventually someone will win, so the chance of a having a really big jackpot goes down. Don't double up unless the pot is stupidly huge.
If neither the shell game nor the boats have much of a pot, then the 100% is okay, but it generates such small amounts of Florins that you won't be able to open many chests. Usually if I'm full on tickets, and neither the 15 or 5% games are worth it, I'll play enough of the 100% to keep the hourly ticket flow going. If I'm on for a while, I keep 10 around, and spend 1 as soon as it hits 11, otherwise I time it to productions, say if I have 4 hours going on productions and I'm about to log, I run the tickets down to 7. It's like the FP bar as it fills 1/hour, so use the same strategy you use there to keep it filling up at a constant rate.
Chest strategy is going to be tricky since they added a league to it this year. The questline gives the center piece early on, and a selection kit at the end. Bronze league gives another selection kit. If you play the game enough, finish the quests, and get into Bronze at the end, then that's two selection kits, which should probably be spent on upgrades. That means winning 7 pieces, the other 4 pieces for the level 1 set, and 3 upgrades. I suggest waiting a few days and building up a pile of Florins before touching the chests. Then first go for the base pieces, then upgrades once you've got a full set. A partially leveled complete set is better than an incomplete set that might have a level 2 piece. Remember, the specials switch every 6 hours, so the pieces will show up more often.
The big problem with Carnival is that you need enough neighbors to not understand the probabilities and run up the pots, but eventually people get burned and stop taking risks. The first Carnival was like that two years ago where eventually people in my hood stopped playing at all it seemed. Last year was a little better, people eventually ignored the 15% game, but enough kept going at the boats to make the risks worth it. Another problem is that's it's unfriendly for the casual player who only logs in once or twice a day, when it's more beneficial to camp all day and wait for people to bet over their heads. On the upside, this years, there's two big Florin prizes along the questline to help players out, and I think the chests are a little cheaper than they were.
So for now, I'm going to wait and build up my Florins. I did get the Mask Vendor upgrade yesterday, so I have that piece completed. I still need to get the other 4 pieces to the set and upgrades for two of them, hopefully I'll finish at Bronze and have 2 selection kits for the other missing upgrades, or I'll have to get a third upgrade, which will be tricky.