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Spin the Wheel probabilities

Tunka Manin

New Member
Equal probability for each circle to land on. You can not land on an empty circle. The wheel is only a visual effect. Stopping it only stops the animation faster. Prize you get is fixed the moment you start the wheel.
I dunno about that. THe visualization helps but I consistently timed it to stop on the exact item I wanted twice in a row.
 

Agent327

FOE Team
Forum Moderator
I dunno about that. THe visualization helps but I consistently timed it to stop on the exact item I wanted twice in a row.
Please allow us to clarify : The wheel will stop on a prize that is calculated when you start the spin. The spinning itself is an animation, so it makes absolutely no difference where you press stop. I am afraid we will not elaborate any further on the mechanics however (though players are of course free to explore this for themselves!)

Happy gaming folks!
 

Johnny B. Goode

Well-Known Member
That is why I suggested the disable button. So you young whipper snippers can act like you have control over everything... :cool:
Never played Zork. And I'm pushing 50. I feel that the need of the spin and compass are unnecessary and adds to the potential of creating bugs. I'm not saying remove the effects, just give us the option to disable it like you did with the parallax effect.
If you're only pushing 50, then you're the young whippersnapper, not me. And if you had followed this subject, then you would know that I am not one of those who believe that the stop button controls anything except the animation ending sooner. Certainly not the stopping point.
 

BigBrian614

Member
It is not my intention to be rude, but this comes up every Summer Event and you are totally wrong in your assumptions. Not only that, but you are giving other players the illusion that the wheel can be stopped in a specific position. Read back the event feedback threads of previous years. Several CM's confirmed the wheel is just a visual effect and nothing more. Stopping it only ends the animation, nothing else. Prize is fixed.
So bottom line: This wheel thing is the worst event game that INNO has ever come up with.
 

Tunka Manin

New Member
If you're only pushing 50, then you're the young whippersnapper, not me. And if you had followed this subject, then you would know that I am not one of those who believe that the stop button controls anything except the animation ending sooner. Certainly not the stopping point.
if "pushing 50" is still considered young whippersnapper, then damn I must still be a baby. ANd teenagers must be fetuses. Now I feel very much better about my age. Thank you (not sarcasm)
 

wolfhoundtoo

Well-Known Member
So bottom line: This wheel thing is the worst event game that INNO has ever come up with.

Depends on your viewpoint. Played properly (with patience) you can better your odds of getting something you want to get with your dubloons. If you are the type to spend diamonds (whether purchased or earned in game) this is one of the better events to focus on what you need to improve your city. Generally the best practice is to let others refresh the wheel and go for the wheels that have more than one item that you desire on it.
 

Emberguard

Well-Known Member
If you are the type to spend diamonds (whether purchased or earned in game) this is one of the better events to focus on what you need to improve your city
Particularly as it’s much easier to know the cost beforehand. You’ve got a guarantee built into this particular event.

Always 1 compass: (40/1)x9 = 360/20 per pack = 18 packs needed x 1,750 = 31,500 absolute max cost
Always 2 compass: (40/2)x9 = 180/20 per pack = 9 packs needed x 1,750 = 15,750 average expected cost
Always 3 compass: (40/3)x9 = 120/20 per pack = 6 packs needed x 1,750 = 10,500 absolute min cost

You also have a guarantee that each wheel has a max cost you can spend on that particular wheel. Someone might refresh it or get to Gold first, but you can’t spend more than the amount of prizes on the wheel before you get to know the result.

——————
Free to play
If we take the middle result that’s 20 Doubloons per upgrade needed. We get a lvl 3 from the Questline. 6x20 = 120 Doubloons needed without Mystery Chest. 5x20 = 100 Doubloons needed if you have the Mystery Chest.

102 Doubloons expected from event + incidents. So make sure you get all the login currency if you want a full building without diamonds
——————

St Paddies has the issue of time restraints. So if you’re spending you may be restricted in how many times you can actually complete each city in order to get the amount of buildings you want. You’d definitely be able to get additional buildings if you wanted, but the risk would be something comes up to interrupt you getting online when you need to advance the minicity or you miscalculate how many extra runs you can complete based on time restraints

Wildlife event is dependent on whether you can get the paws down. There’s no guarantee on how many moves it’ll take to find your first paw in any given minigame. There’s no guarantee how many paws per ticket you’ll find. It‘ll be a lucrative event for some and a dud for others. You may end up having to buy boosters to get the paws off the screen if you’re struggling to align the colours correctly. Cost to get additional buildings is going to be harder to calculate with all the variables at play. You could get a reasonable expectation of cost, but any number of things could result in that cost being inaccurate
 
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icarusethan

Active Member
The worst Event ever is always the current Event.

Every Event has always been the worst Event ever, only surpassed as worst Event ever when the next Event starts.

"Dammit, INNO! These free gold ingots are too heavy!"
this year's worst event is fall event unless winter one is worse that that
 

Agent327

FOE Team
Forum Moderator
Thank you for the clarification. Although pressing "stop" has no influence on the outcome it appears that the developers have tweaked the odds of winning a gold prize so as to create the illusion that players can influence the outcome. I'm pressing "stop" and winning far more frequently than what would be expected from random chance. So, thank you again, it's been a great event so far.
First your reaction is that you can control the wheel, regardless what a CM says and now you are thanking him and claiming the developers have tweaked the wheel????

If you are winning more than expected it means you are just lucky. You can not stop the wheel on a spot you desire and nothing has been tweaked. Developers have no reason to create the illusion that players can influence the outcome. If they had, they would not have told the wheel is only an animation and the prize is fixed from the start. You do not create an illusion after you have already debunked it.
 

Agent327

FOE Team
Forum Moderator
I wouldn't be surprised if the odds had been tweaked given there's more Gold prizes now then in some of the previous years.
There are 17 gold prizes. There were 16 last year. Pirates Hideout has 3 possible chain additions on the wheel. Last years Grand Prize, the Governor's villa had none, cause it can not be chained. Would not call that a tweak. Only tweak on the wheel is 3 possible options for getting the Governor's villa.

One player's experience is not really sufficient to claim the wheel has been tweaked. Especially that the wheel has been tweaked to create the illusion that players can influence the outcome, when most know they can't. Would be a strange reason to tweak it don't you think?
 

Emberguard

Well-Known Member
I didn't say just last year. 2019 had 12 prizes, and some of the stuff listed for this year on the player edited source I haven't even seen yet
 

Agent327

FOE Team
Forum Moderator
I didn't say just last year. 2019 had 12 prizes, and some of the stuff listed for this year on the player edited source I haven't even seen yet
Go back further and you will find there were 4 gold prizes on one wheel. Again one player's experience is not really sufficient to claim the wheel has been tweaked and if it was tweaked, it is highly unlikely it was done to create the illusion that players can influence the outcome. That just does not make sense.
That's like David Copperfield telling you exactly how he creates the illusion of a plane disappearing and then still wants you to believe the plane really disappears.
 

Agent327

FOE Team
Forum Moderator
I'll answer your question with another question. If players believed that they had the ability to control the outcome of the wheel would they be more inclined to spend diamonds?
If spending diamonds was the main reason would Inno really allow CM's every year to state that it does not matter where you press stop. That looks very bad for business to me. That's like playing poker, showing your oponent your hand and then starting to bluff.
 

Emberguard

Well-Known Member
Go back further and you will find there were 4 gold prizes on one wheel. Again one player's experience is not really sufficient to claim the wheel has been tweaked and if it was tweaked, it is highly unlikely it was done to create the illusion that players can influence the outcome. That just does not make sense.
That's like David Copperfield telling you exactly how he creates the illusion of a plane disappearing and then still wants you to believe the plane really disappears.
I'm not saying there's some ulterior motive at play. I don't care if it's the same as every other year or if it's different. I'm saying I wouldn't be surprised if there were any tweaks to weighting given the prizes available for the wheel has changed through the years
 
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Emberguard

Well-Known Member
.I have spun enough to have collected a statistically significant sample size and, on the basis of that and that alone, believe that the odds of winning the gold prize are not 1:9 when there are no empty circles.
Have you recorded that sample size and results? Or are we basing this off of memory? What kind of size are we talking here on the Refresh and Spin are we talking? Or is your sample with a ever changing variable? A significant sample size would be 1,000 Doubloons on Refresh and Spin. A minimum would be 100